USD Correction Across the Market!

In a few hours the end of the month's trading activity has now been limited to the "Corrective Mode" which we have referred to in our recent market view particularly for the USD Index (DXY). As of this writing @96.68 for the DXY, @120.43 for USDJPY, and 1.1066 for the Euro seems to be just a mild corrective move nearing the closing. Boring as it may seem, but sure does gives us some space to kick-back and wait for the next round of news.

The same can be said across the major stock indices to no surprise. Though, the major trend is still intact with a healthy sign for such price pullback on the DJIA and the SP500. We do not expect to have any real action except at the weeks moving forward. For as long as the stock indices stands firm in these levels the contrary attempts to push them lower are slowly diminishing until such time a new round of fresh incentives would present itself before any price action continues.

Have a great weekend! Cheers!

NOT JUST FOREX: DJIA / DDM

The triple digit decline in July after coming from a gradual climb did touch its initial high @17151.38 as indicated on the chart figure below. While the pivotal price point from a 16333.78 low and reverses on the way higher have been the trigger for most investors to risk contrary to others calling a continuing decline since it broke the 16500 levels. 

Meanwhile, the equivalent Pro-Shares Ultra DOW 30 was at a real good discount / spread levels @113.33 with the DJIA price. Likewise, the opposite occured prior to the decline when it was 17151.38 for the DJIA compared to the DDM @121.75. New highs would eventually form prior to the coming weeks ahead. 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL VS. PRO SHARES ULTRA DOW30

Not Just Forex: DOW & S&P - Huffing & Puffing!

DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Management

While the markets awaiting ECB's actions or non-activity and the NFP numbers; the record breaking highs of the S&P have been more important for our out look nearing the 2000 mark levels ever since making a judgement call along with the DJIA above the 16500 has retained its positive breath sentiments contrary to some corrective movements on the way higher.

This will be sustained for now until such time a major contraction would emerge for the US economy. Likewise, it has been sometime that the ISM figures have been showing its growth pace with an ever sluggish jobs growth and leads the US economy huffing & puffing moving forward.  

Our most recent call and portfolio diversified into a few sectors have been more along with taking the ride on with the DJIA strength and a timid, yet stable price recovery of the US Dollar (DXY) from its pivotal turning point @78.80/90 on the way higher. Keeping pace with the ProShares Ultra Dow30 (DDM) and SPDR (DIA) have been moving higher with a few bumps has been a near-term beneficiary of this rally as long as there won't be any serious hiccups on either side of the continents.

SYMBOL                     CHG     % CHG    
S&P             1,927.88   +  3.64    +0.19%
DJI             16737.53    +15.19    +0.09%
DDM              118.32    +  0.15    +0.13%       
DIA                167.13    +  0.11    +0.07%       
FB                   63.34    +  0.47    +0.75%       
GOOG           544.66     -  0.28     -0.05%       
SBUX              74.67    +   0.49    +0.66%       
TWTR              32.90    +  0.32    +0.98%   
   

Not Just Forex lll - ProShares Ultra Dow30 (DDM) Price Update

UPDATE: Pro Shares Ultra Dow30 (DDM) price as of May 11, 2014 @117.08 from average trade position as of April 20, 2014 @113.17 SP

Link:  Not Just Forex: 

Not Just Forex: ProShares Ultra Dow30(DDM)

UPDATE: ProShares Ultra Dow30 (DDM) price as of May 11: 117.08

Averaging the DJIA w/ ProShares Ultra Dow30 (DDM):

Since the 2009 crisis, the DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has had its fair share of major corrections with the recent three digit decline which we have seen from a 52 week range between 16,631.60 to 14,444.00. But with a 13% yearly average is not too bad at all!

Although,the recent decline from December to February was considered a major corrective move which we now see the current price @16,408.54 as a gradual resumption of its trend higher; with daily corrective pullbacks to be expected. And likewise with the US Dollar decline adding to this bull market trend would be the key component for the Dow to continue or not.

Not Just Forex: ProShares Ultra Dow30 (DDM)

Key Benchmarks: DXY EURO JPY

Brief Report:

The market whipsaw on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P have seen market investors shifting back to where they have left off POST FOMC statements. And the corresponding US Dollar Index Spot seems to be moving back towards its February 25th figures along side the Euro. Key levels: DXY @80.05/15 basis point; EURUSD @1.3750/80 and USDJPY @102.55/60 respectively; set-aside the current fundamental report. Simply just the key numbers for price comparison. While the EURGBP & AUDJPY crosses have remained resilient with a milder market price swing from yesterdays influential report.

A probable repeat of history in the making has been anticipated. Although, this might still be a little too early to speculate on. However, the corrective mode would not be discounted as the DJIA and S&P are back to there intraday highs before the decline and since its the closing day of the trading week.

Ccy Insight: Price Action SPOTCHECK

As the end of trading activities in 2013 culminated with the strength of the Euro and Cable by establishing their respective highs compared with the US Dollar and precious metals.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Index makes historical price rally to top-off the year with a considerable build-up of bull sentiments for the US economic recovery reflective of the US Dollar price recovery better than expected positive reports with the Fed pulling back a not too significant taper amount for the start.

Being in the market sideline has indeed have its advantages, as a clearer picture had just unfolded with a simple rational explanation leading to a colorful price reversal at the start of the 1st week of trading activities in 2014. With the four major market indicators stated above,

• the EURO reaching its high price objective @1.3893 on 12.27; Cable's 1st high on the same day of the last trading week of December @1.6576, with a 2nd retest @1.6603 dated 01.02; were vital for the market.

Click to continue: Ccy Insight: SPOTCHECK

Price Action & Market Behavior ll

In recent reports not too friendly for the USD; it still have managed itself for the expected relief recovery contrary to a bias-bearish market sentiment where the USD index have found itself topping-out from its registered daily high @79.70. Close enough for the first stage price level of 80.05/10 initial objective; which have successfully broken-away from its technically oversold condition along with its major foreign counterparts.

Although, price action has been lackluster, as the market participants are again fixated on any possible fresh cue that can be derived from the FOMC report due today. The overall stand as reaching a patched-resolution on the government's partial closure, debt ceiling and the Fed having to scale furhter forward its tapering schedule has made the major market investors shift investable cashflow towards the stock market. Since the expected time-table for Washington politics to again be present by the middle of the first quarter of 2014; regrouping strategy of portfolio diverfication would be in order. Since the closing month for October and opening of the new November month is currently at hand, trade position and price adjustments amongst institutional fund mangers would ertainly take place.

Price Action & Market Behavior ll

Diversify: Trade Positions

On Gold & Equity
After a week of lackluster trading from the huge decline on the USD due to Bernanke's balancing remarks have been reflected in the FX market's ability to move in either directions. As most investors have likewise shifted money flow back to the equities and the precious metals markets.

With the Dow reaching beyond its historical highs @15589.40 have remained bullish supported with equity earnings at record levels after seeing the previous decline @14551.40 last June 24, 2013. And the recent decline of the USDx @80.60 on the week ending June 14, 2013. While, Gold registered its low @1180.19 the following week of June 23. This simple yet effective market scenario do occur, and when all the three major markets made their moves concurrently at the same time with a few interval difference on its time- frame. Surely, a lot of traders have noticed , except to simply overlook such indication of a price reversal can on be made thereafter. In essence, a major market reaction totally opposite was in the making.

Diversify: Trade Positions

Forex Market Insight:

Major market mover in the making!

Now that the market has reacted from the direction & time-table by the FED when it comes to tapering QE3, the USD's price action in today's opening levels have signaled a near-term exhaustion. The price gap can be interpreted another way - as a daily breakaway only if a subtantial follow through price action above the 83.50 levels would sustain towards the closing price of the week and month's trading activity.

Market conditions and price behavior shows otherwise; as prices have been struggling in both directions since European opening sessions. The four (4) hourly bar formation since Asian opening have signaled an island session reversal, filling-in the gap lower in the American trading session. Momentum from the USDx low since the Fed's annoucement have gained traction while heading to its current levels @82.57 to this writing. The USDx retracing back-down should not be discounted towards the remaining trading days fo the month that would still justify that the overall trend for the USD heading towards the third quarter have established a higher low. With exceptional constraints whether such price range would be maintained. But if the prices holds true below the 83.05 primary resistance before the end of the month we would probably see a major correction in the making before the real trend higher follows through.
Click to continue

Perception Vs. Deception: USDOLLAR-FXCM

At times what is seen and reflected onscreen from candlestick bar formation are quite deceiving. And provide some premature / false signals especially during major Trend markets such as the US Dollar in this typical set-up.

As we have indicted in our previous market view analysis; that the makings of a bull trap can be identified whenever a market squeeze occurs. Price action moves in both directions giving at least two contrary outlooks that would confuse both market participants if not careful enough with their trades. The two candlestick bar formation as shown on this figure chart reflects as "Dark Cloud" bearish signal provided just that. Prices thereafter resumed higher setting newer prices heading North of the chart. There are times during uncertainty that this occurs. Stick with the Major Trend as this is typical of a sentiment based market rather than a technically driven one. Click to continue

Comparing DJIA vs. USD...

And how Gold affects markets

The past couple of week's have proven to be true with the USDx touching off a sensitive support price @82.05 basis point from a high @83.50 registered since the 1st to the 5th of April.

The gradual decline has now seen some resilience as the US Dollar is being supported with some factors with Oil & Gold prices declining to record lows @USD1321.77 not to mention the Dow dropping to a minus 265.86 points for the day. The uncertainty of the global economy weighed in the market place as the Chinese data have had some negative influence in the market with the Aussie Dollar paying a price declining to it present value @1.0330 from a low @1.0289 at the start of the trading week.

In our recent analysis, upon the opening of the 2nd quarter trading report; the first 2 week's trading performance and market outlook for the USDx to decline apparently held true to its projected price action. But the relative action of the Gold market has held the USD firm and would likely determine its next price action within the next two weeks of trading for April. Although, what would provide a lift for the USD may not necessarily come from US data reports but simply outside fundamentals that may not be economic related but simply may come from market participants sentiments of market trend direction. The recent CFTC COT reports have initially defined that a significant change on speculative net long positions have changed hands alongside with short-covering positions taken for Euro has it traded above the 1.3100 levels. As traders have been caught within their trading parameters when price action and market swing have traded in both directions. Click here to continue