Process of Liquidation LIVE 9 19 - GBP AUD EUR GBPJPY

Opening Market Insight for 8.12

Consistency & Protective Strategies on Effective Trade Positions:

The US Dollar has lost ground across the board for the past four weeks with only a week of recovery seen on the last week of July. As we have perceived that the US debacle is relatively not over yet; unless US retail sales and consumer confidence figures scheduled within the week would essentially provide some lifeline that would potentially give a boost of confidence for the safe haven currency.

Opening Market Insight for 8.12

Diversify: Trade Positions

On Gold & Equity
After a week of lackluster trading from the huge decline on the USD due to Bernanke's balancing remarks have been reflected in the FX market's ability to move in either directions. As most investors have likewise shifted money flow back to the equities and the precious metals markets.

With the Dow reaching beyond its historical highs @15589.40 have remained bullish supported with equity earnings at record levels after seeing the previous decline @14551.40 last June 24, 2013. And the recent decline of the USDx @80.60 on the week ending June 14, 2013. While, Gold registered its low @1180.19 the following week of June 23. This simple yet effective market scenario do occur, and when all the three major markets made their moves concurrently at the same time with a few interval difference on its time- frame. Surely, a lot of traders have noticed , except to simply overlook such indication of a price reversal can on be made thereafter. In essence, a major market reaction totally opposite was in the making.

Diversify: Trade Positions

On GOLD & FOREX

MEGATRADE101 Aligned with PAULSON Insight

The recent interview with the legendary Hedge Funds Manager John Paulson on CNBC have remained undauntedly and determined with his outlook on Gold. The fact that the demand in owning a piece of the precious metal have undoubtedly remained strong specially at these current price levels.
Trade with Confidence - On GOLD & FOREX...

Identify Price Discrepancy & Candlestick Bar Formation: EURGBP CROSS RATE

CONSTRUCTING A TRADE ON THE EURGBP CROSS:

In the absence of news before a major risk event takes place, traders & strategist in the forex market tend to look for identifiable candlestick bar & price discrepancy that occurs in charting system providers.

Not to discredit them but simply to turn such discrepancies into a trading edge and an added support for technical analysis. Developing a keen eye to pinpoint such formations takes time and experience. This process helps to determine a more detailed approach in establishing an entry and exit strategy. And this is just one of the methods we apply in our trades. Click here to continue

Forex Market Perspective: USDJPY

USDJPY as of FEB 14, 2012

The BOJ's announcement of increasing its Long term JGB & asset purchases by Y10T;have made the Yen prices well offered in today's forex trading sessions. This has led the USDJPY to move higher while yen value declines due to the move to increase QE measures. This is certainly BOJ's a strategy of staying as competitive as exporters suffer from a stronger yen at these levels. Although, risk negative; the Yen has maintained its gradual decline instead of a rapid intervention which everyone one has been so used to having at a certain price levels where the BOJ intends to come in. This way BOJ have found an indirect strategy that would benefit them more which obviously have been learned from the QE initiatives by the US to help boost the economy. The long term consolidation period would lead to breaking through its trading range between 79.00 - 75.50 levels, once an aggressive stance and the effectiveness of this monetary easing by Japan would continue to see the under performing price levels of the Yen in no time. Pls. visit our website for a perspective outlook and analysis for the AUDUSD, EURO, EURGBP & EURJPY CROSS rates at http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-snap-shot

Technical & Behavioral Perspective: EURJPY

EURJPY CROSS DAILY CHART

UPDATE : As of Feb 09- Expect increase volatility, follow-through price action and pullbacks in the next 2 trading days especially the trading sessions in European market towards the US American trading sessions on Friday for both majors & cross rates respectively!
The EURJPY candle configuration is quite interesting then prior to today's upward direction as fueled by the surge on the EURUSD, due to reports that there may already be a more likely deal addressing the Greek debt crisis. The technical perspective signaling a positive tone was the recovery on the EURUSD and simultaneously a move higher with the USDJPY.

A move for the USDJPY higher is a lost in Yen value. The break from a triangle formation came at 100.60/85 that followed through at current price of 101.99 from a rising equidistant channel application. Closing prices above these levels would still provide a positive tone thereafter with a further corrective daily moves on both directions giving a false reversal scenario.

A pause and consolidation after a dramatic move is likewise considered which would cause some traders to reluctantly create trade positions. A word of caution, never try to catch a rapid market movement as pullbacks would cause to trigger stop loss due to wide price fluctuation.

Forex Trend Following in 2012 - EURO & USD

Without having to report a blow by blow account of the Foreign currency prices, the established trend from this trading year of 2011 would be a clear Trend Following in the opening trading year of 2012. Until such time that both sides of the continent's economies as well as political situations would realistically improve. However, there are mix of signals for an improving US economy somehow, the uncertain of contagion is still in the air as major markets ripples its effects in the global arena.

With the ECB's balance sheet of over 2.73trn , the adverse price reaction of the EURUSD in itself has triggered a massive 200 pips move and a build-up of this momentum towards the end of the year's trading that rippled across the board of the forex market. Although, regardless of these events or a lack of one from a thinly traded market is still a signal that the bias negative and bearish sentiments are present in the market. True enough, easier said when prices has moved; but the overwhelmingly bearish Trend for the European majors and the continuing strength that the USD is making just proves that this would spill over towards the new trading weeks of the coming year 2012. 

EURUSD DAILY

The psychological support of the EURUSD at 1.2880 seemingly looks weak with probable extensions at the 1.2560-1.2680 price levels. When these prices would be achieved would likely be towards the opening trading weeks ahead in January 2012. However, an orderly manner of depreciation would be seen with prices having a wider fluctuation on both directions. A word of caution should be exercised as the Euro prices heads lower; as a technical corrective divergence is being created and stay clear when such build-up of volumes and a lowering of open interest for the Euro futures may serve a temporary corrective price reversal due to position adjustments and year end book-squaring from a thinly traded market condition on the last trading day and opening week of January 2012. And this goes the same with the GBPUSD.

With that said, the correlation with the USDX currently at 80.63as of this writing; would have to go higher and hurdle the first resistance area of 81.38bp towards with its Elliot wave extension targets of 83.30 basis point. And continue just above that extension nearing the major monthly trend line resistance levels of 85.50 basis point on the high.

To date, it would be quite difficult to have projected time-line as to when these technical objectives & price levels can be achieve. This can only be speculated on by viewing the charts through the course of the coming weeks ahead together with the considerable fundamental conditions on both sides of the globe.

For now, Have a great New Year for 2012 and as always only the best for all your trades!

US Dollar Index Market Analysis

For the past decade, with more e-trading developments and accessibility to the markets have made it easier to monitor market behavior during market holidays. The up-coming trading period before the Thanksgiving holiday would prove to be one of those times where a handful of institutional and majors players would again be in place. Although with an expected mix bag of market directional movements and the general trend developments into a bullish advance through the year end from thereon as a comparison as far back in 2008 that should not be discounted unless otherwise proven not to follow the cyclical pattern hereunto.



US Dollar Index Weekly Candlestick Chart



However,as for the US Dollar unexpected downward distortion after touching the 79.83 by dropping back down in October for a re-test of the 74.72 low was the appropriate corrective move in preparing for the 2nd leg higher where the market conditions are presently at. The backlash of news reports from both continents have been dragging this lagging recovery which should be respected from the market behavior. As price movements by market numbers doesn't lie. And the only way that we can stay unbias of any market analysis is to always trade with a level playing field in any given position(s) while in the market. For the Technical description & Analysis, please refer to our website at http://www.megatrade101.com/

The coming holiday trading conditions will certainly be a complicating factor for trading the US dollar. For the time-being, focusing our attention on the backdrop for financial strains; with the European market’s are particularly stressed; with both the EU and other major US Financial bank's exposure to the EU debt crisis have been a huge part of this global recovery. Money market funds have significantly reduced exposure to EU banks, though the ill-effects have nevertheless found their way into funding costs in the US system.

These are the underlying issues that we should consider to be critical rather than the ineffective event of risk aversion and appetite in the market place. The coming crucial reports this week; including the 2nd reading of the third (3Q) quarter GDP on TUES NOV. 22, the Fed minutes, the UK BOE MINUTES on WED. NOV. 23; US durable goods,the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Nov.numbers and personal spending and on the EURO ZONE side would be Germany and the UK's Nov. 24 GDP figures.

All this reports would occur towards before and after the end of the trading week of the Thanksgiving holiday which would provide the market with an ever increasing volatility from lack of liquidity in a thinly traded market to position adjustments and liquidation for the rest of the month of November towards the end of the trading year. However, pay close attention to market behavior as these are the ripe times to consider.

Just a side precautionary note where we would like to quote the words of Gordon Gekko from the movie Wall Street - Money never sleeps..."bulls make money, bears make money...but pigs get slaughtered".

Only the best for your trades!