Market conditions post ECB and FOMC have had countless price swings across currency market in both directions of the chart. Directing an overall USD's reaction into a decline coupled with mix market sentiments among some currency pairs have again stalled market movement. Although, CABLE's resiliency and strength during the USD price recovery for the past 6 weeks since May 2014 has remained in focus.
The disappointing figures from the Euro-zone PMI manufacturing have likewise missed-out expectations, Germany and France doing the same have kept a lid on the Euro and stayed within a day's tight range below the 1.3600 levels. While CABLE stayed above the 1.7000 contrary to the USD slight recovery on its price reaching an 80.40 daily high and currently stable for now @80.35 basis point. However, by the middles of the week's report on Consumer confidence slightly expected to be favorable, alongside New Home Sales contrary to GDP#'s -1.8% expectations probably offset any favorable price reaction if GDP misses out wider than expected. Click here
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Showing posts with label consumer confidence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label consumer confidence. Show all posts
Monday, June 23, 2014
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Game Changing Move Expected..
from Speculative Price action
The positive influence of Retail Sates couple with the recent precious metals decline have given the USD the lifeline every bull analyst have been waiting for. Although, price action for the past 3 consecutive days of US Dollar recovery have lost its steam and would soon retrieve back to its original directional trend heading lower.
Key price areas to check for the closing week with the US Dollar Index is whether it would stay above the 82.05 pivotal price to restore its bullish sentiment. Or would a retest and pullback below the 81.10 levels be done within the next 2 trading days. Watch these key prices on both sides of the range when European market open on thrusday going into the American trading sessions.
Game Changing Move...
The positive influence of Retail Sates couple with the recent precious metals decline have given the USD the lifeline every bull analyst have been waiting for. Although, price action for the past 3 consecutive days of US Dollar recovery have lost its steam and would soon retrieve back to its original directional trend heading lower.
Key price areas to check for the closing week with the US Dollar Index is whether it would stay above the 82.05 pivotal price to restore its bullish sentiment. Or would a retest and pullback below the 81.10 levels be done within the next 2 trading days. Watch these key prices on both sides of the range when European market open on thrusday going into the American trading sessions.
Game Changing Move...
Monday, August 12, 2013
Opening Market Insight for 8.12
Consistency & Protective Strategies on Effective Trade Positions:
The US Dollar has lost ground across the board for the past four weeks with only a week of recovery seen on the last week of July. As we have perceived that the US debacle is relatively not over yet; unless US retail sales and consumer confidence figures scheduled within the week would essentially provide some lifeline that would potentially give a boost of confidence for the safe haven currency.
Opening Market Insight for 8.12
The US Dollar has lost ground across the board for the past four weeks with only a week of recovery seen on the last week of July. As we have perceived that the US debacle is relatively not over yet; unless US retail sales and consumer confidence figures scheduled within the week would essentially provide some lifeline that would potentially give a boost of confidence for the safe haven currency.
Opening Market Insight for 8.12
Monday, May 27, 2013
Expect Increase Volatility
A short trading week after a US long Memorial weekend & UK holiday would provide a sentiment- based volatile market, a wider price activity towards the end of the month. Although, the Yen's dominating performance in the currency market have influenced the EURJPY & GBPJPY crosses more with its recent move as its gained back its strength.
GBPJPY registered a low @151.77 while the EURJPY reached a 129.95 low before retrieving back their losses at the current market prices @154.00 & 131.68 respectively. Price action at the recent lows have given the currency pairs a technical relief from an oversold area, the same way such a corrective move have given the USDJPY some elbow room in search of a tentative support level before the next leg could be establish. Click here
GBPJPY registered a low @151.77 while the EURJPY reached a 129.95 low before retrieving back their losses at the current market prices @154.00 & 131.68 respectively. Price action at the recent lows have given the currency pairs a technical relief from an oversold area, the same way such a corrective move have given the USDJPY some elbow room in search of a tentative support level before the next leg could be establish. Click here
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
USD reacts to FOMC..
other currency review & analysis!
Increased volatility surged as the FOMC statements outweighed mixed reports from the economic sectors. As most traders were made aware that the Federal Reserve would slowdown or even stop purchasing bonds sooner than expected. This statement was the main catalyst as investors uncertainty prevailed in the market place prompting a slide in the US stock market. And the USD to rally which has influenced the Gold prices to mark a decline touching the all important support price @1555.07 levels.
With that said, the USDx topped the 81.10 basis point and have shown a good deal of sustainable strength at these levels which we have anticipated would occur between the Wednesday through Thursday trading sessions. Momentum build-up emerged alongside with the volumes to push the US Dollar higher have made many market participants cover short USD positions. Daily trading sessions pullbacks are again expected until a considerable follow-through towards the end of this week's trading takes place. USD strength have shown it true colors! And now choosing the best currency pair to pursue the USD directional movement would be determined by way of tracking open interest and trader volumes during position adjustment.
Please continue...Friday, November 2, 2012
UPDATE as of 11.02: NFP confirms Market Outlook 10.29 - USDx currently @80.51
The Non-Farm-Payrolls (NFP) numbers of 171,000 reported jobs added from the Labor department on top of the revised 85,000 government jobs created for the months of August and September. Although, the unemployment number inched a tenth of a point to 7.9% the USDx currently working at the 80.51 as of this writing have manged to gather enough volumes and momentum to finally break away from the channel - sideways consolidation as described in our Market view outlook dated the 29th of October below. Please refer to the analysis for a complete report.
Watch for the suceeding follow through for the coming trading week as more open interest would increase and this expected spill=over may well be the catalyst for the market direction and its confirmation. Spread trading between Spot and Futures utilizing the ICE USD Index as a secondary market opportunity versus the spot would eventually pay-off. Of course, it can only be favorable along side with the market expectation of a favorable report for the USD as we have indicated including the good consumer confidence & manufacturing figures that already signaled this prior to todays's release.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Fundamental vs. Technical 3.26
Alternative Strategies:
Assessment of the foreign exchange market has become a more complex manner between fundamental and technical analysis. Over the three months period of the quarter the USD resiliency to maintain its upward trajectory has limited its momentum with the current corrective move to the present levels of where it settles towards the closing of the month's trading. Before going to these numbers, the surrounding issues that attracts equal importance are as follows; without having to go deeper to their explanations, because its speaks for itself. Here is the checklist as follows:
A resumption of the major trend after the corrective move to the lower levels of 78.09/10 can only maintain whenever the US Dollar Index trades above the previous registered high of 81.80 basis point. With its current price of 79.15 as of this writing would have to have some serious back-up from this week's trade reports from both continents to push it higher. However, the current pace have continued the USD to move lower as the EURUSD & GBPUSD has kept its rally to move higher above their present resistance levels. And this is due to the improve business confidence in Germany beating market expectations.
Continue in Market view at http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view
Assessment of the foreign exchange market has become a more complex manner between fundamental and technical analysis. Over the three months period of the quarter the USD resiliency to maintain its upward trajectory has limited its momentum with the current corrective move to the present levels of where it settles towards the closing of the month's trading. Before going to these numbers, the surrounding issues that attracts equal importance are as follows; without having to go deeper to their explanations, because its speaks for itself. Here is the checklist as follows:
- Consumer & Investors confidence of the Global economy
- China & its forecast of a slow growth for the next coming years ( soft landing economy)
- Net effects on Commodity / Currency markets
- European debt crisis & US trade balance /deficits / Unemployment / Housing figures
- Increasing Oil Prices / Supply & demand factor correlation with the Precious metals
- Iran & Israel conflicts on top of the North Korean Issue
- Upcoming Presidential elections
A resumption of the major trend after the corrective move to the lower levels of 78.09/10 can only maintain whenever the US Dollar Index trades above the previous registered high of 81.80 basis point. With its current price of 79.15 as of this writing would have to have some serious back-up from this week's trade reports from both continents to push it higher. However, the current pace have continued the USD to move lower as the EURUSD & GBPUSD has kept its rally to move higher above their present resistance levels. And this is due to the improve business confidence in Germany beating market expectations.
Continue in Market view at http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view
Monday, March 19, 2012
Market Analysis 3.19 - USDx - EUR - GBP vs. JPY Cross rates
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| USDx as of Mch 12 '12 with FIBONACCI Lower Fan |
The not too surprising move of the USD at the end of the trading week of 3.16 was triggered by the inflationary effects of the Consumer Price Index, plus a more negative sentiment vs. the figure from the University of Michigan Confidence report. A justification quite simple enough to draw the USDx lower from its 1st initial objective of 80.50/73 resistance level as mentioned in our supporting video below dated the 12th of March 2012 and market view report on the 13th. The preliminary outlook then for the near term was 'neutral to bearish'. Remember, there is no real straight ups or down as price fluctuations are susceptible to changes due to major news reports. However, this move back to the low of 79.67 was indeed a major correction from its daily /weekly highs as the pullback came in right after the final outcome of the confidence report. Pls. continue ...http://megatrade101.com/
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Sunday, November 20, 2011
US Dollar Index Market Analysis
For the past decade, with more e-trading developments and accessibility to the markets have made it easier to monitor market behavior during market holidays. The up-coming trading period before the Thanksgiving holiday would prove to be one of those times where a handful of institutional and majors players would again be in place. Although with an expected mix bag of market directional movements and the general trend developments into a bullish advance through the year end from thereon as a comparison as far back in 2008 that should not be discounted unless otherwise proven not to follow the cyclical pattern hereunto.
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| US Dollar Index Weekly Candlestick Chart |
However,as for the US Dollar unexpected downward distortion after touching the 79.83 by dropping back down in October for a re-test of the 74.72 low was the appropriate corrective move in preparing for the 2nd leg higher where the market conditions are presently at. The backlash of news reports from both continents have been dragging this lagging recovery which should be respected from the market behavior. As price movements by market numbers doesn't lie. And the only way that we can stay unbias of any market analysis is to always trade with a level playing field in any given position(s) while in the market. For the Technical description & Analysis, please refer to our website at http://www.megatrade101.com/
The coming holiday trading conditions will certainly be a complicating factor for trading the US dollar. For the time-being, focusing our attention on the backdrop for financial strains; with the European market’s are particularly stressed; with both the EU and other major US Financial bank's exposure to the EU debt crisis have been a huge part of this global recovery. Money market funds have significantly reduced exposure to EU banks, though the ill-effects have nevertheless found their way into funding costs in the US system.
These are the underlying issues that we should consider to be critical rather than the ineffective event of risk aversion and appetite in the market place. The coming crucial reports this week; including the 2nd reading of the third (3Q) quarter GDP on TUES NOV. 22, the Fed minutes, the UK BOE MINUTES on WED. NOV. 23; US durable goods,the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Nov.numbers and personal spending and on the EURO ZONE side would be Germany and the UK's Nov. 24 GDP figures.
All this reports would occur towards before and after the end of the trading week of the Thanksgiving holiday which would provide the market with an ever increasing volatility from lack of liquidity in a thinly traded market to position adjustments and liquidation for the rest of the month of November towards the end of the trading year. However, pay close attention to market behavior as these are the ripe times to consider.
Just a side precautionary note where we would like to quote the words of Gordon Gekko from the movie Wall Street - Money never sleeps..."bulls make money, bears make money...but pigs get slaughtered".
Only the best for your trades!
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