Matter of Choice & Perspective Between Safe Haven Bets or Commodity Currency and relative major pairs
The erratic pace of price action among the major currency pairs caused by market volatility for one, have covered both sides of the market directions. Each major pair have curved a wider HI/LO range, and their own respective reasons for their price movements.
Likewise, a lot of fundamental factors surrounding the markets surfaced mostly from the US government's shuffle and global stocks including foreign equities disappointments have been the drivers of a very choppy market. No pattern can be identified as the market prices tend to be on the negative side can be quite unpredictable.
With that said, Commodity currencies weakness have also been on the defensive particularly the AUSSIE and the CANADIAN Dollar providing a firmer tone for the USD Index now above the 90.20/30 levels which we recently pointed out in our market view.
As of this writing, the AUDUSD is trading at 0.7735 have fallen anew while the USDCAD have regained its footing after a mild corrective move at 1.2805 levels and is currently trading above 1.3085 levels. A resumption of its original trend direction since coming from the February low at 1.2287 with the equivalent USD INDEX then at 88.53 basis point levels. The only comparative analysis noted was the USDCAD had barely three minor price correction which have had a more impressive USD recovery compared with the AUDUSD itself.
As a matter of fact, the Australian Dollar trading partnership with China have shown that the AUDCNH and the AUDUSD have more of a similar price action as compared with the USDCAD. Hence, the discrepancy in USD recovery is greater with the CANADIAN Dollar as a matter of technical chart perspective.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY have made itself clear as a safe haven for any currency market disruption as the choice for a lot of investors. And has proven to be true as it has retested the 105.50 levels again while pulling back within the current session at 106.20. While the USD has also made headway with the USDCHF trading at 0.9535 a probable delayed reaction from the SNB maintaining its monetary policy.
Nearing the end of the month and 1st quarter trading would have quite an interesting market scenario, as the coming holy week and shortened trading; the probable market action would be deemed thin. Yet, the likelyhood of unexpected price before and after would be expected based on historical price movement which could emerge without any given notice.
So watch how the market plays out especially for the closing price levels of the USD by the months' end and opening levels for the first two weeks of April. Our fiduciary duty to our client interest does comes first keeping us at toes with the market to be relevant in these types of market conditions presented to us time and again!