Monday, September 26, 2016

REVALIDATING #USD / PHP MARKET & PRICE Call Summary

#YEN Strength VALIDATES #USDPHP Weakness...

A Trade sequence of our market call dated May 01 @47.00 which came from a follow through price call on the #USD/PHP pivotal price point @46.10 dated April 18-19, 2016. A total coverage of a position trade of 5 months in the making from mid-April and currently above the @48.00 PHP/USD exchange rate. And where retracements covers a full run of their respective Highs & Lows while staying Neutral to Negative for the Asian markets since Sept 8, 2016. This is a sequence of trade position analysis.

The Playbook is more between the PHP weakness rather than a USD strength. Along side the Strength of the YEN keeping the USD at bay. Likewise, a similar market behavior but not necessarily related to is the movements of the #EURO vs. #CABLE's weakness with the #EURGBP cross rate full recovery range being resilient to #GBPUSD weakness working below the 1.3000 levels to this writing.

Whenever one can identify these types of market play after digesting fundamentals and still remains with similar price action in spite of the uncorrelated pairs; the least common denominator would still be the USD.

Friday, September 23, 2016

On the Flip-side of the Asian Market [ #PSE Index - #USDPHP]

The Philippine economy would follow a bumpy road ahead towards the last quarter trading of the year. Side-tracked by political uncertainties around the three branches of government; while most of the major economic reforms left behind by the previous administration is faced with less attention with a few exceptions on infrastructure relative to the massive traffic problems facing the greater Manila area.

The bleak outlook for now on stocks have shown that a dramatic game changing scenario has started to build up with some FDI started to  trim down their investment exposure due to uncertainty and limited loss of market confidence that may dilute the gains made from the previous years. Besides, at these premium levels not to mention even the real estate properties held prices at such higher levels that the degree of affordability and ownership may not be sustained. Unless of course a newer direction of growth would show some evidence in domestic consumption, exports and a return of Foreign Direct Investments.(FDI)

PSEI levels at the 7500 would serve to be the support price to watch as the index is consolidating between the previous high at 8000 mark and the 7000 range for some time. And currently at the high mid range at 7720 levels. Again, stock prices are indeed at a premium, for some other analyst despite of the current uncertainty, that growth is still expected as a way of 'Market Protectionism' every time a triple digit decline is made in the global market. Here is a video as to what's driving the stock market in the Philippines.

Global rating agencies have already been monitoring developments in the Philippines in relation to their respective projections. Inasmuch as the ill effects after the elections, the end results for the 4th quarter of 2016 and succeeding 1st quarter of 2017 would reflect a much slower growth rate in the numbers report that may lead to a possible downgrade thereafter. If and whenever no changes are made and with the new administration re-focus back towards economic reforms; then a negative contagion would be expected by mid 2017.

However, this may well be overshadowed with the probable gains on OFW foreign remittances the coming holiday season. As the exchange rate of USD/PHP have also gained traction currently at PHP48.00 / USD, as of this writing in the late Asian session.  On the other hand, for as long as prominent Asian, US_PH  investor / traders view how to turn these projections into a positive playbook, then no matter the given market scenario these can be worked out.


Thursday, September 22, 2016

Market READING between #Price_Action & Beyond #Chart_Analysis

In spite of the recent mix reports on initial claims while the market still is digesting the FED's decision to keep rates unchanged have kept the USD weak as measured by the #DXY index that dropped back to the all important key levels at 95.05 basis point in the US session. Meanwhile, the encouraging move of the stock market has provided some signs of recovery trading in their higher band.

A cautious market is keeping the currency market at bay contrary to the European majors rising to levels with the #EURO @1.1257 high and #CABLE barely touching the 1.3120. There are no real conviction to this rally for CABLE; as it lost steam and gradually pulled back to their recent starting point levels. Price action that does not meet the corresponding target range levels such as CABLE @1.3180 - 1.3400 provides the additional uncertainty for a valid rally for now.

VALIDATED: Market & Price Call on @CABLE Price update as of today GBPUSD @1.2947 after loosing steam from its daily session high of 1.3120 https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/C3VqdYhF/ 

One week left for the 3rd quarter trading and position adjustments are being carried out as momentum gradually keeping pace in positive territory giving secular bulls the upper hand of the market. As we made mention in our previous call dated Sept 12, 2016 - US Stocks on a Roller Coaster Ride; ....

" To be ready for some good market action well within the closing of the 3rd and opening of the 4th quarter trading. On the CCY Corner, pay close attention to the #DXY, along with the European majors particularly the #EURO's consolidated price pattern,  #CABLE & #EURGBP Cross Rate as a mirror image."

As the chart below have already indicated a cluster of bar providing the uncertainty of the market then or simply a "shake-out'' As of now the trend line support drawn is still valid unless proven otherwise. TRUST, CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION does matter in this volatile market.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Valid reasons why JOIN the TSOT.CLUB

Being a member of a trading club for the right reasons and objectives can be a great way in achieving an investor / trader's aspiration in reaching a higher trading percentage results. And this can be achieved by knowing the various levels of market volatility that may affect the markets. Thus avoiding the unnecessary pitfalls of a trading loss by being on the right side of the trade more often than not.

These are just a few distinct & appropriate trading practices that 'TSOT.Club' is focus on by being a member. Having the 'Trading Discipline' can only enhance an investor/ traders ability to trade these markets. There are three (3) membership categories that would form the core foundation and trading standards that focus on the best practices and strategies trading the financial markets.

For Asia Pacific Region (including Philippine, Australia & Singapore) Online & On-Site Clients / Investors & Traders would be group based on each individual assessment, ability and qualifications on market knowledge including actual trading experience. 


Sunday, September 18, 2016

USD Strength Recovery Remains Sensitive

As the #USD ended last week's trading at a higher note; it would remain at these levels for the following reasons. And these simple yet valid fundamentals will sustain a positive tone where #Gold, #Oil, #European #currency majors and the positive expectations for a rate hike for the year would hold. The data release on the upcoming FOMC meeting as a forward guidance and the ECB speeches will remain as the main focus for this week's activity.

Prices on Gold below the USD1350.00/oz  would remain bearish contrary to having its prices recover from the 1250.00 support we have seen so far. And with OIL prices have pulling back below the USD45.00 /bl. handle added to the USD lift with the European currency pairs retreating to their former low band have remained with the market's negative outlook.

Guiding the trades by focusing on the USD direction will provide  a better footing on what the market remains supportive. Note that the overall market behavior including the (3) major US Stock indices is vulnerable and quite sensitive to the slightest comments made prior to any market reports.

Link: https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/ogNkGutV/