Wednesday, October 26, 2016

PHP Historical Price & A Greater Probability of Further Weakness vs. USD

Where its been & Where its heading?

The worst performing value for the PHP was recorded on April 18-19, 2004 Asian Session. And marked a high @57.50/72 which later pulled back to close 55.75. And marked as the worst devaluation of the PHP against the USD. Which began drifting thereafter.

The pivotal price point recovery started @40.15 dated Jan 20, 2008. With a 2nd higher low 42.45 in Nov. 08, 2010.  And repeated in March 11, 2013; which started the full run of the #USDPHP recovery. And as of today, Oct 27, 2016 is @48.55 in the Asian trading session.

When such chart and price patterns are defined there is a higher probability that a the consolidated period which broke out of its trend line resistance from its highest price level @57.50/72 can re-test another run towards the 52.38 rate level after breaching its average price of 47.25. The recent week's low @47.92 shows the resiliency of the USD strength and PHP weakness. As prices have to continued back above the 48.50 levels.

Related Info on USD Strength by Mohamed El-Erian

Least Expected would Trigger DOW's Direction Soon Enough!

After Consolidation!

The #DOW recovery from a lower opening in the US session is back on the saddle @18217 to this writing with the #DXY making minor adjustments along with Oil prices. More importantly is the fact that these incremental net changes in both up & down swings is part of the overall consolidation pattern.

This has been our stand for quite sometime, as the extended consolidation is defined. The market conditions are ripe for a break and even a not too surprising rally for the DOW from the consolidation soon enough. But not necessarily described as forming the 'Golden Cross in the SP500 best described as the 50 DMA have crossed the 200 DMA that provides the signal.'

What this all means is that the market is simply waiting on two aspect components that would trigger the market direction. Once its made, expect the first signal to come from the least expected market indices.

Cloud Chart Overlay

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

#PH Central Bank Includes #CNY into Basket of Currency

Should consider Two (2) sides of the Coin

With the Philippine Central Bank adding the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) in its basket of currencies, after a 24B agreement was made from doing business with China has now transformed the PHP to some cost savings in directly swapping its local currency with that of the Chinese Yuan without having to deal with a major currency such as the USD. That's one of the good side of the story, but there are relevant effects not directly presented with this move.

China has an advantage with the on/off-shore currency pairs; where the #USDCNH is likewise traded along with the #USDCNY through their Hong Kong Dollar counterpart which is pegged to the USD. The PH Central bank does not carry such 'fail-safe' system that can be a protective mechanism in the event that a financial crisis or meltdown in China occurs

Thursday, October 20, 2016


Where CORRELATION VALUE is important!

Update: As of Oct 25 - DXY marked above the 99.10 high

DXY - USD index have re-established a weekly high @98.57 breaking its previous high and on its way towards the 99.00 basis point handle. thus leading the #UUP - Power Shares DB Bullish Fund slightly above the 25.47 nearing the target level @26.00 last seen January 29, 2016. The resiliency of the USD has drawn quite a good sentimental support from bullish players for the USD as the European currency majors continue to dwindle lower with the #EURO taking a considerable beating below the 1.0900 started from the US session that carried it thru in early Asian session. However, nearing an end of the month's trading the probability of daily pullbacks would not be discounted with the USD index holding a 97.92 low, the EURO @1.0850 while making an early price recovery.

Price action has remained in negative territory for the European currency pairs until such time a good fundamental arises. So far we do not see any forth coming knee jerking moves to state a strong price recover. The same manner we have stated with US Equities. That any incremental declines including the recent drop below the 18k had served to be a mere corrective move as stated in our previous blogspot ' Consolidating pattern within Directional Trend.


Cloud Chart Comparison DXY & UUP