EURJPY Cross VALIDATED as of 01.29.16 Asia Session

Japan CPI data provided speculation on BOJ easing which pushed USDJPY high @121.40 level, and spilled-over to the EURJPY Cross rate @132.26 high in the Asian trading session. This has led to the BOJ rate cut into a negative 0.1%. 

This VALIDATES @megatrade101 MARKET CALL on EURJPY Cross rate with a trade position dated the 25th of January 2016, @128.30.  With the price break above the 118.80 equivalent USDJPY after the release of the CPI data and the sustaining levels with the EURUSD above the 1.0880 -1.0910 fueled by weight on more speculative actions by trades for more probable BOJ easing which added to the rapid price swing and pullback during the Asian session. Closing price levels for the week is closely monitored. As these price movements is a glimpse of the market's direction that would set the pace at the start of the new month's activity.

Reference to Market Call: EURJPY Comparative Analysis dated 01.25.16

CCY Corner: EURJPY CROSS RATE Comparative Analysis

With that out of the way, the EURJPY cross correlated to the Japanese Yen's price movement have likewise shown some relative support zone @125.85 low and a price recovery currently @128.47 marks a correlated Yen weakness compared with the USD maintaining strength well supported not only by its price, but by some encouraging figures from housing prices data and US Consumer Confidence #'s. The USD direction would have some momentum and increase volatility by the next GDP data for the week.

The price action pullback of the EURJPY from its 125.80 low can no be a confirmation of its benchmark support. Quite a significant move and a divergent comparison with the EURO is well justified. Marking the low price of the EURUSD @1.0580 as the first bottom price based on the current chart. However, the current configuration of the EURUSD well within a descending channel from it high @1.1048 price zone was a result of the ECB disappointing the market of its inaction on rates.

CCY Corner: EURJPY Cross Rate

Market brief Insight: GBP EUR AUD & Crosses

Patience is bitter but its fruit is sweet!

Market patience has been tested time & again; as prices have been in both directions since the European majors have decided to consolidate in the levels of range bound trading. With the initial decline in the Asian/ European trading sessions have earlier triggered a soft rally for CABLE in particular.

Although, some have claimed to be not convinced of the initial move since it has been more of an anticipation of good numbers that would be coming from UK improving economic outlook. The USD Index (DXY)'s decline to as low as 79.55 have only provided a slight push for both Euroepan majors. The recent pullbacks on prices is but a normal session correction as momentum and volume build-up would be contained nearest to the coming reports from an expected busy volatile week ahead. Somehow Wall-streeters as compared to  main-street as we'd like to term it; has been shrugging geo-political uncertainty and brushing it on the side contrary to the new Russian sanctions imposed  today.

Market brief Insight: GBP EUR AUD & Crosses

USD Rally In Asia

Ahead of other markets
US Dollar Index extended its high with an opening daily gap lifted by comments from Fed officials. The dollar index after dropping to 80.44 is now back at 80.87 as of this writing. The strength has clearly influenced the Aussie and the Yen for now.

Background:
As one of its regional Federal Reserve bank official continues to push for a cut in the U.S. central bank's emergency lending rate in December, while three others renewed their request to hike it instead. The source was from the minutes of Fed deliberations released on Tuesday. This are the kinds of market influence that dictates price movement even before two other market sessions open.

USD Rally in Asia

Forex Review & Outlook

EUR GBP YEN GOLD DXY

Coming across an excellent information from the Financial Times have proven to be quite enlightening as far as the important events describing the USD performance. The recent NFP report were not as supportive as everyone has expected, as the USDX have again traded near its low and currently @80.44 basis point.

Yet the USD decline had most traders really surpised with the figure. Meanwhile, Cable's similar decline was expected based from our last market insight dated the 7th of January; that the signal for the GBPUSD to decline would simply present itself withn the 2 weeks period we specified from said date. Its only been a week and Cable has attempted to move below the 1.6350 support - which it did with a 1.6345 low (big deal!). And currently recovering from the sudden price swing from yesterdays move.

Review & Outlook
Investment: USD Disruption

Double-whammy for the USD

Market Insight: DXY EUR GBP AUD & CROSSES

The known fact has now been in effect since the divided congress did not come up with a favorable resolution. Sad to say that this occurs when the US economy needed as much assistance from these political figures and not play hardball over negotiations that a negative & direct impact would be at the expense of every American and a global ripple effect in the making.

Thus far, the much anticipated case of a government shutdown has forced the opening USD in Asia to move lower. The price gaps accross the forex market have led the EUropean majors to rally to their respective best performances contrary to what most retail traders expected. However, a slight recovery from their daily opening price gaps have reflected some short-covering for the Euro and Pound traders in particular.

Double-whammy for the USD

FOREX INSIGHT: EURGBP GBPJPY EURO CABLE & YEN

Taking a cue from the US market last week, the spill over effects of the US Dollar can be felt even at the opening levels of the Asian & Euroepan markets. In the absense of some US traders celebrating the Labor Day holiday have made the market susceptible to wide price swings even to this writing.

The main focus would still be the Syrian crisis and particularly the Non-farm Payrolls data within the week's trading. A more positive tone can be attributed to fresh incentives driving the USD Index higher working above the 82.05/10 basis point made mention in our most recent market view report. Aiming the next probable resistance @83.50bp would take some serious volume and momentum towards the week which may take some time to build-up. Daily corrective moves on a session-to-session turnovers between the three major markets can be expected.

Asian, European & US Sessions - FOREX INSIGHT

Market Insight: FED Sentiments vs.Speculative Price Action

FOMC member from St. Louis - Fed Bullard's comments have been considered a warning within its members and for obvious reasons to traders in the market for over speculative optimism for the September taper policy action that resurfaced in the market place. This provided the additional short-lived and relief lifeline for the USD recovery which have taken place for the past several trading days. Unless better data comes out to support this weak USD rally, the directional trend for the US dollar index remains bearish.

Market Insight: FED Sentiments vs.Speculative Price Action

Market Insight: Majors & Crosses lll

With the USD (DXY) finally reaching our target range between 83.20-83.50 along side the USDJPY moving higher above the 100.00 levels, Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing survey would provide valuable insight about Friday’s Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

This would likewise provide a volume and price action-pickup before and after these reports. With only a day to go before Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, the US dollar Index have managed to extended its gains across the board with the majors by reaching the 83.50 all important level. while other currency pairs have initially broke key technical levels, the lingering follow-through may hold the final switch as to when exactly would this occur...is the question. That's is why a market price squeeze would be a normal behavior to see in a thinly traded market condition. Click to continue

Market Snap-Shot: Forex Currency Majors & Crosses 6.27

Understanding Forex Price Action: 4 Majors & 4 Cross Rates - LIVE 6.12

EUR.GBP vs. USD.JPY Trend Continues

After last week's price rampage between majors and crosses; the USD continues to find some realistic support while testing the all important & key price level @81.05. Some USD bull speculators still remain in the market based on the lastest COT report in spite of the recent price decline.

However, the USDJPY decline or the Yen's appreciation dominated the market place as the BOJ maintained their monetary policy to spur-up their economy diappointed most traders leading to its price action decline in one day touching 94.98. Thus carrying the USDx decline equivalent to 81.05 basis point. The abrupt price action on the USDJPY low resulted to a strong pullback towards the closing and after retracing to as high as 99.27; a restest of the low was made on the first few trading days ahead of the week. This also affected the price activity on the cross rates especially the GBPJPY followed by the EURGBP cross which both currency pairs had pulled back from their respective HI/LO giving other traders a run for their limit orders in both directions.

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Weighing Market Sentiments-FX Majors & Crosses

Fundamental vs. Technical 6.4

In focus this week are data from Europe and the United States as well as the all important U.S. employment report on Friday. And this would take some serious considerations as to what would weigh more and be the driving force to move the market.

For starters the Aussie first climbed as high as $0.9790 in the early Monday trading session, and currently trading correctively @0.9652. Initial support is seen at $0.9565 which represents a daily engulfing-bearish bar when the price closes below this support. It would take the lead by mid-week when the GDP figures will be release on Wednesday (June 05) As expected, a temporary relief recovery came through from a defined bearish trend and a continued decline is seen in today's price acction. A negative bias remains enforced until a clear direction would state otherwise from the USD that may come from the Non-Farm Payroll figures this Friday which would be the main catalyst for the market by then.

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Midweek Price Reaction

USDx Breaks Primary R1

Earlier reports for the week with a positive US Retail Sales sustained the USD while adding fuel from the negative data coming from the Euro zone has fueled the rise for the USD to continue reaching relatively a high for the USDx @84.09 basis point. Bullish sentiments still prevail the market while the Dow and SP500 has continued to make newer highs registering the strength of market activity with investors looking for mild setbacks within a bullish trend.

The start of the week's trading have provided a softer yet gradual decline for the EURUSD before the German GDP data came out and currently working @1.2972 from a registered low @1.2942 to this writing. However, as most analyst have been watching price action across the board touching their respective support levels while waiting for a technical break lower for most majors. While maintaining a watchful eye on the USDJPY nearing its resistance level of around the 103.30; most traders were reluctant to establish any fresh new positions as probable risk on exist as prices continue to move higher.

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Market Perspective SRO

USDx AUD EURO CABLE CROSS

Weighing on the market after the sequester, the US Dollar have been quite resilient with minor pullbacks even to this writing. It has managed to maintain at the higher end of the charts with bullish sentiments much in place.

However, as most reports say that this is just the beginning and a negative outlook is expected. Jobs, working hours would be cut and would definitely make a huge dent on the slow growing US economy. The reaction of the majors have been subtle for now with prices recovering across the board. Although, most analyst and traders would likewise be waiting for the end of the month for some fresh incentives. But almost all analyst is bearish for Cable which has pressured the market in spite of today's relief recovery

It was only the Aussie Dollar that has managed to recovery with significant grounds versus the US Dollar as it moves higher @1.0239 touching its 14day-EMA from a low parity price level @1.0114. This would be a temporary reaction from the RBA news of holding rates unchange and technically providing a relief from selling pressures. However,there will be a re-test of the earlier lows in the mid-term before a new trend reversal can be declared. Key price to watch is still the 1.0305/10 levels of its trendline resistance.

The Aftermath of Forex Volatility

When heavier than expected news reports prevails before and after trading sessions expect increase volatility & price action. This occurred when Moody's rating agency have downgraded the UK one notch lower after Friday's trading hours that led the opening price in Asia to hit @1.5085 low and stayed within these price levels.

However, the opening price gaps occurred across the board, especially with the Japanese Yen reacted on the stance of the ADB Kuroda and that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint someone who shares his dovish position with regards to monetary stimulus is expected. While the Asian market opened @94.20 from the previous closing price of 93.40 then drove the prices to as low as 90.85 and currently working @91.93.

Other than the recent Italian elections, all eyes would focus on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as he would be making his congressional testimony for two days which would again make the market vulnerable to sensitive comments posing price swings in both directions. 

But as we have mentioned in our previous market analysis dated the 22 of February; a major correction was indeed expected in the first two days of this trading week. Whereas, the corrective strength of the JPY

EUR & GBP fades vs. USD, EURJPY slips Lower

Interestingly enough, the USDx has been toying its price swings above and below the 80.05/10 for the past couple of trading days. The indecision for a follow-through have been seen by traders as a lack of interest while awaiting for some fresh initiatives from the upcoming University of Michigan Confidence report and the two day meeting with the G20 leaders in Moscow. Eurozone GDP figures continued to show the signs of recession as the EURUSD declines further to this writing.

Currently, the EURUSD is @1.3333 and the USDx is @80.43 intra-day price from yesterday's candle bar signifying that such corrective move from yesterday's high still has potential to move higher. USDx trades are prefered for now, since the price parameters are more defined within the risk trades taken. And using the 80.05/10 as the pivotal price point, momentum and the volumes on a day to day session.  As USD bulls would expect a better than expected confidence numbers today.
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Perception vs. Trading Analysis

Technical or Fundamental:
Whenever investor's confidence gains ground in the European community; there will always be something that may spook the markets related to political uncertainty in Spain & Italy. These market conditions have provided some well timed relief for the USD recovery and a gradual slide in the Euro. Which have led equally the same uncertainty with investors and traders whether the decline in the EURUSD can lead to what others have eagerly been waiting for.
The USDx opening price levels for the daily have made some significant recovery...

Forex: Game-changing Signals

It has been a one directional trend for the majors and cross rates for quite sometime now. New secondary highs have been marked for the EURUSD @1.3477, USDJPY @91.24, EURJPY @122.29. While the GBPJPY cross had been choppy from a range levels @144.40 high & @139.25 low with a steady-to-lower sentiments in line with the USDJPY corrective move @90.47 as of this writing. 

A subtantial decline in momentum can be seen with price action limited to daily ranges while most traders are waiting for more clues on the upcoming reports from Consumer confidence numbers, US GDP & the FOMC consecutively coming out by Wednesday. As recent reports have been friendlier towards the USD, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls for January & Unemployment figures may simply be the main catalyst to set the final tone of the market's direction for the final trading days of the month.  

However, there are some game changing signals that are currently being set-up...

DECLASSIFIED: Exclusive Analysis & Trade Plan

EURGBP-GBPJPY-EURJPY
Most of our viewers probably came across our blogspot dated October 29, 2012 titled "Exclusive: EURGBP Analysis" for our Premium members & clients of MegaTrade101.com. Where we have provided an exclusive analysis, a market outlook and a detailed trade plan for the EURGBP Cross rates. Identifying that the trend during those times were a "Reinforcing Trend" in the making. However, due to the USDJPY resurging to its current price levels today; the EURGBP has been over-shadowed by the major movements of the GBPJPY & EURJPY crosses dated last November 18, 2012 respectively. Which we did identify and traded within the price rally and the importance of following a trade plan within a fairly reasonable time frame and price flexibility.
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