Trade Summary On Cross Rates 2

Net Percentage Trading can only be as effective when choosing the right combination of correlated currency pairs that are timely executed  in the market. While treating a loss as a cushion against unexpected adverse price fluctuations.

MegaTrade101.com Video Support Trade Summary On Cross Rates

USDJPY,  AUDJPY, GBPJPY, SGDJPY, CABLE
Focus on the Japanese Yen related cross rates with an arbitrary hedging strategy on Cable against adverse price fluctuation

Exceptonal Times : DOW USD & YEN RELATED CROSSES RISE

CIPHER3 - PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS: 

The #DOW JONES and the #USD (DXY) are outperforming their peers with the recent rally we all have seen just this week alone. Exceptional times do occur when the US manages to come up with its own arsenal (so to speak) and outperforms the rest of the markets.

This has been our stand for sometime and have stayed the course. Our recent market view dated the 12th of September has held true especially with the "CCY Preference" that we have stated. Yen related crosses have likewise outperformed the majors volume and price momentum with the USDJPY taking the lead which has spilled over exceptionally well with the GBPJPY, CHFJPY, SGDJPY respectively.

Aside from Janet Yellen statements on rates and the FED'stance in keeping rates over an extended period, JOBS has been their main focus which has been receiving quite positive reviews contrary to wht other analysts say. However, with increase trading volumes and price momentum; The USD Index ability to move @84.81 high is impressive enough to push USDJPY to its current levels @108.95 to this writing. GBPJPY @178.23, CHFJPY @116.11, SGDJPY @85.75 respectively.

Congratulations! : 5 Trader/Investors who attended the Open Forum yesterday are very happy today with their own trade decision to take up these CCY pairs discussed. Reference to Price action Analysis dated the 12th of September - Insight to the Cross rates stated above. Now that you're ahead , stay ahead! 

Likewise for those that receive our email You are more than welcome!
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Price Action Snap-shot: 03.05 - Cross Currency Pairs

The following analysis is based on a summary of price action and the currency crosses in particular that we, @megatrade101 - have previously chosen as the primary trade positions best suited for the current market conditions and each currency pairs price weighted average. 

A certain process of deduction and currency elimination is based on a calculated exponential average price movement of each pair & which of the currency pairs would perform well, have the best probability and market potential with the least possible risk in the near-to-mid term period. A simple risk depends on the tolerance level one would be willing to take; in exchange for a probable gain in these kind of market conditions.

Price Action Snap-shot: 03.05 - Cross Currency Pairs

Combining Old School with New Technology has its Advantages

With SAC ousted from the hedge fund line,  George Soros’s Quantum Endowment Fund made the strongest gains out of any other hedge fund in 2013. This is according to a tally sheet made by LCH Investments while, John Paulson’s - Paulson & Co. hedge fund came in at 4th place. And Moore Capital, Louis Moore Bacon, $2.5 billion came in at the tenth place finisher for the year.

Those who invested in equities coming out ahead — 70% of total gains in 2013 were made from stocks. This is the same transition period that has cleared our way into shifting most of our trades in mid-June and July towards equity stocks. Particularly in social media, Technology and financial in line with stock valuations  as against reported earnings; as compared to US Dollar value with a hedge position in the precious metals market.

We at Megatrade101 had taken this macro-economics outlook from Keith Anderson, who runs the $25.5-billion Quantum Endowment Fund for George Soros Fund Management, has seen enough of choppy global markets specially the Foreign Exchange market.

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Market Analysis SRO 12.4

In the absence of any real market changer between the recent RBA interest rate cut within expectations, the ISM manufacturing data and the much anticipated Non-Farm Payroll data, the market sentiments on the GBPJPY, EURGBP & EURJPY Cross Rates reinforced trend remains resilient with the steadier prices still moving north of the charts.

From our closing analysis and insight for the US Dollar Index dated the 30th of November; we have made mention that ..." The key indicator for the opening price gap would dictate the first trading week for December." While the USDx opened lower with a price gap at the first trading day of the new month of December @79.99/00 from a month's closing price last Friday @80.25 basis point have indicated a lower signal for the USD. Which prompted the Euro & Cable prices to swing higher at the ealier Asian trading session towards the European sessions. Although, inbetween sessions, prices have had some minor session pullbacks breathing some false indication of a possible decline. However, these decline in prices are mere corrections and price adjustments that are intended to soften the relative strengths / weaknesses of the current prices related to their corresponding indices. These price adjustments is where changes are likewise made while technical divergences /convergence are created in the same manner that would provide some trade signals along the way. 

And one of the predominant technical traits ...

Forex Fact-Check & Market Technicals

OVERVIEW: Volumes & Volatility Index have declined more towards the last quarter of the year contrary to the slow growth of the US economy. The forex and equities market have been swinging in both directions between the Federal Monetary Easing, European Debt Crisis, Political & Government Fiscal Policies and the current Fiscal Cliff. The choppy market behavior have been more susceptible towards every bit of information and data affecting price fluctuations that has not been much help for the traders and investors. Liquidity, trade volumes and participants have held back towards this 4th quarter.

With that said, the Major Cross-currency pairs have managed to outperform the majors since September until to date. And we have mentioned this from our previous article in comparison with the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY versus the EURGBP, EURJPY and the GBPJPY cross rates respectively. Although, it would be wise to make a final assessment at the end of the year's trading as to the currency pair that best performed for the current year ending 2012. And we shall get back to you on this by then.

TECHNICALS:

In Focus: GBPJPY Cross T-Perspective

The GBPJPY cross rate have been aligned with the USDJPY resilient higher trend and the steadier acceleration of Cable against the USD. On the technical side the recent correlated double top of GBPJPY also weighed heavy leaving the GBPJPY cross to declined at the 125.66 levels.

This was a temporary market squeeze ending the week of November 09 towards the first few days of the following week. This market squeeze is usually termed as a bull-trap; where prices declines and a sudden price reversal would engulf the previous bear prices. A follow-through of this trend is in the making especially when a Price Reversal was established for the USDJPY dated week ending October 19 followed with the Japanese Parliament dissolution last November 16, 2012!

Although, this serves as the first line of support; the critical and psychological price that may attract fresh longs would be still the 125.50/80 range. Which it did as reflected on the succeeding weekly engulfing (bullish signal)candle-bar chart ending the week of November 16.

The significance ...

Video Support: Confirms our Market Highlight & Analysis 11.20

Technical Perspective: GBPUSD

Although, the GBPUSD had all the positive sentiments of a bull market continuation, the strength of the USD from the Non Farm payrolls have thus limited its advance with the parallel decline along side with Euro. However, it maybe the technicals have been justified with the double-top chart formation as reflected in the chart.

This also came from a price consolidation and HI/LO trading range from the 1.5945 low and the 1.6030 high where a gradual price pattern of up and down swings have been established before last Friday's decline. A bearish tone with probable extension back to its original starting price of 1.5880 dated May 2012. A gradual decline would be in order unless a build-up of interest from a flight to quality USD purchases would continue with enough momentum to push prices in a rapid fashion.

This will bear fruit if and whenever the rising channel on the support price would be penetrated that can likewise meet some profit-taking causing a temporary pullback or corrective move from liquidation. It would be real nice to be slightly ahead of the market price action as when timing is off then we do have some time to change and make certain amends for our strategy.

Click here for a Market Snap-shot!

Technical Perspective: USDJPY

The USDJPY breakout above the 78.90 has triggered a follow-through for the past three trading days. Although, the reports were mix for the USD; it has recovered from the low of 82.04 and simultaneously breaking above the 83.05. This led the currency pairs to move together, while the USDJPY rally confirmed it's interim trend higher.

Extensions would be critical at the 80.50 which is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous decline. A move above these levels and a higher closing price for the week would provide a more positive outlook for the USDJPY to continue. Expect session to session pullbacks with the USDJPY, however the technicals of the breakout would be equivalent to the length of the consolidation.

Forex Market SRO 8.13

With the USD Index trading its weakest range for the past week with barely a high registered at 82.87 and a low at 82.04 have stalled again after a corrective move for the past two weeks from July 25 to the current price working at 82.55 mid-range level.

This was primarily due to the low interest of fundamental as well as any political reports that could seriously drive both the Euro and USD in any real direction. Which has kept the Euro at bay at the present levels of 1.2280-1.2300 price range at the start of the Monday trading in Asia and Europe. However, GDP reports in Germany, EU Zone including the Great Britain's Consumer Price Index; followed by the BOE minutes may add some early price action by middle of the week. The succeeding news reports in between Friday's US Michigan Confidence numbers may help turn the tables around from any directional price action brought about at the middle of the Wednesday results.

But the psychology of market price action and its behavior is still relevant to the growing decrease of speculative participants after the market squeeze experienced last Wednesday & Thursday's volatile up and down swings that have caused some USD short-covering on Aug 02 & a counter-trend reaction of market liquidation on Aug 03. Where a lot of speculative positions were caught flat-footed of such reaction.

Although, we have provided a signal in our market view report of the eminent price move dated the July 30-Aug 01, 2012 that has led to a market squeeze which we have experienced from those two consecutive days of counter trend price movement in both directions.

The consolidation of price swings ...pls. continue 

Counter-Trade Strategies l & ll Settled & Booked

UPDATE: Counter-trade Strategies l & ll executed from these market view trade analysis have been settled & booked prior to the closing trade as of today the 7.05.12

Target levels for the GBPUSD at 1.5510 first objective; GBPJPY at market current market value 123.90 and GBPCHF at the 1.5045/50 has been achieved. This is a considerable amount from the end-result of the ECB rate cut and a day before the NFP figures release. We'll be watching the market movements from hereunto as the strategies successfully implemented would provide us a trading break for the time being. Please refer to the market view analysis and sequential trades listed below. Or visit our website for a detailed report.

Counter-trend Strategies: GBPCHF vs. GBPJPY

Suffering its biggest,one-day loss the US Dollar (Index) settling at the 81.60 basis point levels; majority of which was due to the outcome of the EU xummit. Although, some of the reports today from the US Manufaturing numbers which proved to be lower than what the US Manufacturing figures are expected have given the USDx a pause from its recovery at the opening of the North American session.

The wider uncertainty in the long run that these troubles is not immediately going anywhere have prompted investors and traders reluctant in creating short positions at the beginning of the thrid (3rd) quarter of the year. The overall fear that a financial crisis may well be spreading across the global market is still up in the air. A review of the bigger picture, yields are still at its record lows, a sluggish economy with a fractional growth rate and major banks capital requirements are needed to extend liquidity in the market place the very core foundation of a bear market entering in the 2nd half of the year.

Speculation and institutional hedgers do weigh heavier as volatility may increase inspite of the lesser volumes traded daily. And with the upcoming 4th of July celebration the market would likely be all over the place in both directional play of price action taking advantage of some players not present in the opening trading week where the EU debate this Monday is expected. Subsequently by Wednesday's 4th of July celebration trading break for the stock market and the ECB meets Thursday followed by Friday's NFP numbers expect the market to be actively traded in the European and Asian trading sessions.

For the past couple of weeks now, we have applied a short-term exposure trading primarily the cross rates with a couple of majors and using the futures market for the USD Index. A counter trend position at the middle of the week's trading between the Asian and European markets and closing out at the end of the week's trading in New York.
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Market Analysis -SRO 5.15

USDx - CHF - EUR

The opening of the 2nd quarter for the Foreign Exchange market has been expectedly been volatile with prices going in both directions daily across the board due to several re-emerging news from Greece, Spain, Germany and the United States. With the European elections as the earleir front-runners the effects on the US Dollar has been supportive not to mention the performances of the stocks, precious metals and oil prices earlier mentioned that should likewise be considered in the overall market outlook. 

The slow but certain trend direction upwards for the US Dollar has significantly given its initial signal since the earlier week of March as previewed in our sequence of market analysis that led to the confirmation of the strength of the USDx. 

The consolidating base formation and trading range has been defined with the techncial support price of 78.05/10 level and a consolidated resistance at the 80.05 before its break higher. Currently at the 80.55 basis point; where some daily corrective movement lower would be expected. Since the gravity of the JP Morgan 2BUSD loss is being played down in the market while the highlight of the German economy seems to overshadow the investors uncertainty in Europe have given the FX market a milder room to breath for the next market direction. Inspite of the EURUSD meeting its target levels working below 1.2850. An important key price to watch whereby the daily & weekly price would have to re-align with the moving averages and a base for consolidation would be made before the next leg would be resumed.

USDCHF as of MARCH 15
AISAN TO EUROPEAN MARKET
TRADING SESSIONS

Meanwhile, a more direct correlation in price and market movement is the USDCHF meeting its projected target higher above the 0.9300 with a registered high at 0.9371. While breaking its weekly trading range between 0.9000 & 0.9220 was the equivalent range in line with the USDx 78.09 - 79.85 basis point. But for some traders and strategist who may have done more research and due diligence would have identified the pivotal price of 79.18 EMA for the USDx was an established technical double bottom. Of course, its always easier said after the fact. However, the fact remains that eversince then the prices trended higher to where it is currently working at 80.55 basis point.

That was the cue in taking the long side of the USDCHF initial entry at 0.9043 dated the 26th of March. And a secondary position at 0.9288 on the break-away higher. Leaving us with a very good ave. price level of 0.9165 with an average size of half a dollar in trade. With extensions on the high side above the 0.9405/45 range for the week. Do expect some daily corrections along the way. We'll consider a settlement and or a cross-trade depending on the market conditions towards the week's reports. Expect some daily corrections and we'll consider a settlement and or a cross trade depending of the market conditions. But a protective cross with the EURJPY / GBPJPY or USDJPY would also be considered as well. Market flexibility is good to practise as one remains un-bias towards market donditons whenever some news arises unexpectedly.  

FX Volatility aftermath French Elections

European Majors & Crosses across the board went sharply lower after the Greek and French elections outcome which backed anti-austerity candidates against French President Sarkozy.

Concerns about the new French President and Greek PM would need a better working coalition government. Germany's statement is that they would be closely working with the new President on their stance on austerity towards building growth for the European economy as a whole. However the likely differences with Germany from the most recent resolution on the Debt crisis will continue to weigh on the market as investors have somehow foreseen that these differences may eventually weaken the single currency like the EURUSD & weigh more on the cross rate EURGBP to their lowest levels before and real deal on the new government would come out.

EURUSD DAILY - ASIAN TRADING SESSION

This has prompted the USDx to jump start the Asian trading week with a higher opening gap at 79.97; which would attempt to break the 80.05/10 1st (R1) resistance level for the USDx. With enough momentum to build up the rally from last week's move may well be the catalyst to further the USD strength to finally continue its original trend direction. The previous week's market squeeze between the Euro and the Pound will remain tight while adding the jolt the market received from the RBA would continue to be a trade war factor between European, US and Asian major market players in the Forex market.

Likewise the EURUSD and the EURGBP opened at 1.2960 & 0.8060 respectively in the Asian trading sessions as an immediate reaction to the European elections. And this was a welcome treat for short-sellers maintaining trade position until now. However, expect some volatile reaction on both directions after the opening gap which would lead to some profit taking and trade adjustments/ liquidations for long trades caught flat-footed with this fundamental news & movement in Europe.

Extensions on the Technical perspective for the EURUSD ...LINK: http://megatrade101.com/

A Forex Squeeze & a Jolt!

When contracting price action occurs in the forex market expect an increase in price volatility and a much wider price fluctuation from a session to session basis. The start of the new trading month for May shows this typical example; where we can find that two contracting fundamentals between the Euro and the Sterling Pound is at play.
The price decline on the EURUSD currency pair came about with the European manufacturing data, a struggling sovereign debt crisis and the pressure building up on growth & unemployment weighed heavier that caused the EURUSD to drop to its current price levels of 1.3145 as of this writing. That triggered a softer EURUSD compared to Cable. Whereas UK housing data is high-lighted versus the European continent's weakened economic growth. Thus, prices on both currency pairs contracted in opposite directions. With the EURUSD sustaining a loss for the daily session, while the Sterling Pound maintains its trend higher as more trade analyst are convinced that it would take much more to drag the cable back to a bearish tone, the signals are there as of now.

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Trend Analysis on Majors & Cross rates

GBPJPY & EURJPY

The two previous market analysis has viewed FX prices widened considerably with the GBPUSD and the Japanese Yen both gaining against the USD.

With mixed reports from the Fed QE3 and the more negative GDP numbers last week where the USDx closed lower at a vulnerable support price of 78.80. The USD thus far has continued to weaken without any real signs of a recovery unless proven otherwise with a surprising end month closing and opening for the month of May.

Although, currently due to the month end trading activity the USD has found some relief rally and position adjustments after Friday's GDP bearish report. Prompting today's recovery are some bids for safer-haven trades as dampened risk-appetite, mainly due to Spain in recession. And a mixed report from the U.S, personal spending dropped from 0.9% in February to 0.3% in March, while personal income ticked 0.1 percent higher from 0.3% in February, on the other hand, Chicago purchasing managers index dropped sharply to a 56.2 from 62.2 in February.

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Pivotal Price & Trend

USDx - EUR & GBP

True enough just right after the corrective move lower from the USDx registered "Higher Low" at the 78.09/10-78.80 trading range the expected recovery rally for the USD is on its way.

This was in line with our time frame / period market outlook / analysis dated the 12th of March "USDx 1st quarter to April Analysis" where a turn around would re-establish a USD recovery back to its original trend. A follow-through is likewise expected from hereunto with daily temporary pullbacks. Thus the next probable high would be made with the next trading weeks ahead. Extensions as previously described from the video from the support price of 78.80 basis point would initially target its high at the 80.40 - 81.80 before a retest above the 81.85-82.05 price point resistance levels.

This would correspond with the Pivotal price reversal of the USDX last marked in our CCY Price page indicator for the week ending March 2nd and followed by the European Majors thereafter. The high of 1.3485 for the EURUSD was first marked, likewise on the same week ending March 2nd. However, the GBPUSD did made a higher extension at 1.6036 on the last week of trading for the 1st Quarter which came in only second & keeping pace with the Euro. The last trading for the week of April 06 have showed some unwinding of positions due to a mix report but more favorable for the USDx to rally ending slightly below the 80.00 important level closing at 78.85 basis point. On the technical Perspective; the Daily three(3) rising method bar configuration with the fourth candle bar closing at the 79.85 is a bullish signal. Please continue at http://megatrade101.com/

Majors & Cross Volatility expected!

With the short trading week for some traders towards the Easter Holiday celebration especially in Asia; the sustaining view for the USD is highlighted from the expected FOMC minutes. But more importantly would be the ECB rate decision, the NFP and unemployment report this coming Friday. Inspite of the disappointing Tanken report; the main currency leader has been the Japanese Yen gaining strength versus the USD. The USDJPY managed to move lower at 81.52 while it influenced the GBPJPY & EURJPY likewise moving down to the 130.74 and 108.62 levels of support the first trading day of the 2nd quarter of the year. These are the best levels so far for a one day move where an expected recovery would be made during the new opening sessions towards the European & US Trading sessions.

The majors are more susceptible towards the fundamental side of trading rather than the technicals. We are still leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment of the US Dollar within this period. With a consolidation pattern establishing a base and wider price fluctuation within the week likewise the next three tradings days of the week after. Volatility will be the main focus of the trading sessions as the mid-week for the month of April starts.

The EURUSD would dictate the same volatility with the EURGBP cross rate as it attempts the 0.8290 low and 0.8360 trading band to trade with a wide price range on a day to day basis. However, the bias market sentiment still remains bullish with contrary market analysis for those traders who still remain bearish for the overall trend lower for the Euro. The pressure is intact for bear USD traders and continued short covering plus market capitulations for bear traders position holding until now. 

Mid-Market Analysis 3.22

U.K. retail sales were projected to fall 0.5% in February after expanding 1.2% in the previous month but came at -0.8% higher than most forecast have expected, that prompted the GBPUSD to move lower and currently at the 1.5780 price level.

Most of the European numbers report have been negative as the Euro zone contraction is well evidenced from the French and German Manufacturing and services sectors. The EURUSD is down respectively at the 1.3150 with a low at 1.3132; thus penetrating the important support of 1.3180. The critical price for the week's closing should be closely monitored and this prices is indeed the 1st signal of a bear market with the USDx recovering from these reports.

Furthermore, the drop on the precious metals has added to the positive shift of investors investments to the Reserve currency of the US Dollar. And not to mention the the concern of global slowdown with EU contraction and slowdown in manufacturing data from China. 

Meanwhile, the GBPUSD is currently at 1.5790 as of this writing coming from its psychological price resistance at the 1.5880-1.5920 range and signals its weakness starting from the report. The levels where it may seek some valid support would be at the 1.5680-1.5700 price range.

However, for now that the pullback weighed heavier with the GBPJPY cross than the EURJPY pair, ideally the liquidation of these positions we have held since the 12th of March makes it more sensible to settle; as we shift from Pound correlation with the Japanese Yen, to the US Dollar. Continue in market view report at http://www.megatrade101.com/