US Stock Picks 1st Quarter Review

Here are just a few of the US Stocks to review and evaluate for the first quarter of 2017. A careful study and due diligence are required as most of the US Stocks are now at premium levels. As we know the three major stock indices are making record highs.

Note: These stock picks are not recommendations as they are already part of our stock portfolio for the initial quarter.

DXY RVI Tech Divergence Backed by Fundamental

An Effective Combination Properly Timed can result into a good trade!

 

Justified by the fundamental comments by Mario Draghi and the Jobless data: applying an appropriate technical analysis prior to the reports have made it more encouraging that volatility defined through a divergent trend before it occurs has proven to be an effective strategy.

The higher probability can best be seen after the fact as prices for the DXY have already moved slightly above the 96.05 levels as the figure shows. Whenever no session pullbacks happen and with a sustaining bullish sentiment remains, then the next probable move for a follow through is more likely to occur. Of course, it is how we perceive the market direction, but respect for what the market would do will still prevail as it dictates its direction based on the flow of dominating market players.  

Technical Perspective Backed by Fundamental Reports

Just for the Record

Disclaimer:
MegaTrade101.com does 'NOT' accept or solicit funds from clients / investors for trading these financial markets.. All clients are advised to make direct trade transactions, pertinent documentation, including deposits, withdrawals from their respective 'Private Banking - Inter-bank Trading accounts'. On a case to case basis can co-manage investment portfolio only with the direct participation of the clients / investors while trading the Financial market & only with a reputable inter-bank / authorized Broker-Dealer as an Institution that provides clearing/ dealing services and meets investors compliance requirements, goals and objectives. This is for the protection, interest and security of funds for every investor / client. Megatrade101 training programs are for educational and financial literacy purposes that does not constitute any guarantee on trading due to the nature of probable loss in a volatile market.

Note: Megatrade101 has NOT authorized any person/s or other companies to provide advise or solicit any public or private investment funds to trade the Foreign Exchange or other financial markets on its behalf. Therefore, shall not honor any representations made by unauthorized parties concerned. Any inquiries relating to this matter shall be coursed through our website and only authorized officer of Megatrade101 management. 

Furthermore, MegaTrade101 is  'Independent Professional Service' and is NOT affiliated with any local or foreign broker or institution and 'DOES NOT' act or receive commissions / make any endorsement of companies that offer trading services online in stocks, Foreign exchange and other financial instruments for that matter. Thus making certain that independent and un-bias statements with full transparency is provided to clients / Investor's as their Interest comes first with NO Conflict of Interest.

MegaTrade101 does not make any representations of guarantee that trading results from the market analysis would be the same with other investors. In essence, investors who would want to participate in the Foreign exchange market should first consult and seriously consider their financial conditions before engaging into a volatile market such as foreign exchange Trading. And that is because losses on investment capital in part or in whole do occur in trading these types of markets, especially when trades are poorly and are not timely executed in the market. Due Diligence is advised! 

The Right Approach to Technical Analysis

Part l: Technical Analysis
In most cases. an effective technical analysis MegaTrade101.com follows a distinct process based on historical trends established and price action that can be used as reference points for price resistance (High) and (Low) support. Depending on the approach and objectives, identifying trends can best be viewed as short-to-near term, medium-to-long term outlook.

This process would enable trader-investors the abiity to decide an appropriate trade position to take in the market place. More importantly, an effective technical analysis combined with a few selective tool applications can be utilize to project directional price trends ahead of the market. Certain market conditions do apply at certain times. As market conditions vary in some degree, price action plays a vital role in reflecting true market sentiments on real time trading. Click to continue

Related article: A Constructive Approach and The Strategic FX Trading Techniques

Next Level Analysis ll

Comparative Approach: DX EURO DJ-FXCM USD:

The market has been fixated on the upcoming FOMC report that would probable dictate the outcome of the financial market this week. Although, the G8 summit meeting is focused on the Middle-East crisis and comments indirectly affecting commodity prices that would add to a volatile oil and gold prices is expected.

This would also provide some insights to the FED's clearer "Taper" time-direction from the FOMC that would make market price volatility in the coming days. But in the absence of major reports for now, market prices moves within a tighter range before any major moves are done.

In the inverse monthly chart figure 1; the correlation of the Spot USD Index (Black Line Graph) overlay with the Euro (Japanese Candlestick )provides an indication of the USD weakness more than the Euro have been supported both by fundamentals and technical analysis. And with the increase volume since the start of the year; the first quarter were USD friendly and a major corrective decline have emerged before the end of the 2nd quarter of June as volume again builds-up in line with increase market volatility. Click to continue

Forex Fact-Check & Market Technicals

OVERVIEW: Volumes & Volatility Index have declined more towards the last quarter of the year contrary to the slow growth of the US economy. The forex and equities market have been swinging in both directions between the Federal Monetary Easing, European Debt Crisis, Political & Government Fiscal Policies and the current Fiscal Cliff. The choppy market behavior have been more susceptible towards every bit of information and data affecting price fluctuations that has not been much help for the traders and investors. Liquidity, trade volumes and participants have held back towards this 4th quarter.

With that said, the Major Cross-currency pairs have managed to outperform the majors since September until to date. And we have mentioned this from our previous article in comparison with the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY versus the EURGBP, EURJPY and the GBPJPY cross rates respectively. Although, it would be wise to make a final assessment at the end of the year's trading as to the currency pair that best performed for the current year ending 2012. And we shall get back to you on this by then.

TECHNICALS:

Market's ability to react more from Fundamentals!

Currently Weighing fundamentals vs. technicals

The Dow Jones ability to move sharply lower on Tuesday reflects investors real market sentiments as some of the largest multinational companies mixed earnings and with Moody's credit rating downgrades for five of the European regions surrounding Spain have rekindled serious concerns about the slowing global economy.

The ability of the US dollar has firmed as a sign of revival for safe-haven activities have move towards that direction. While the stock markets decline, have redefined that stock market assets becomes a higher risk from soft corporate earnings reports reflected by the major Dow Jones industrial major brand names.

Traditional safe-havens, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, could serve as an alternative strategy for US investors keeping the dollar in place at these higher levels. The only contrary to this scenario is that Japan is also having more serious difficulties with their very own economic growth.

At the height of the U.S. recession

Market Assessment

Global Issues affecting the Financial Market

A more positive tone has been set today with a much better housing sector providing support. With housing prices increasing mildly into positive territory. Improving home equity no matter how slow it maybe would mean some breathing room for the US economy heading towards a recovery.

Improving Housing and unemployment are 2 of the key drivers for a stronger economic recovery along with a recent report that a bigger part of US manufacturing would be heading back towards the US by 2014 would indeed be a welcome treat for the employment figures. This would redefine a clear path for a positive outlook in the next few years to come. However, with the election year and the unresolved European crisis, may provide some changes in the financial landscape especially with the question of Spain and other EU zone countries ability to generate growth while meeting austerity measures may still dampen the prospects of a global growth in the interim years to come.

To top it all...

Market Perpective 2 & its Behavior 9.05

One of the attributes of a breakout from a lengthy consolidation period after a major price action is the prevailing market sentiments remains stable. In essence, a bullish or bearish breakout would normally have a follow-through after the consolidation.

Unless a contrary fundamental over the prevailing market trend would indicate otherwise. That is why it is quite important to monitor the weekly COT traders report wherein the data between long and short positions are identified alongside the volumes and open interest defined for speculators & institutions alike.

With that said, the USDx opening price levels have lost its ground from a session to session basis since the opening gap from last Friday's closing of 81.35. And has maintained it levels while both European majors of the Euro & Cable have rallied to this point. This clearly marks a similar configuration a indicated on the DXY chart; where you can find an opening gap higher from previous close dated May 07, 2012; and gradually losing ground during the session.But kept its closing price above the previous day's closing of 79.55 The same is being traded today Sept. 05, but since this is a live market and we still have a few hours ahead in the trading; as long the daily closing would be above the previous day's close then the USDx interim rally will hold until further developments would say otherwise. Pls. view chart.....

Forex Price Equilibrium

Its that time of the cycle year when we have to do some due diligence analysis as to where and how global prices of world currency rates fair compared down to the very basic commodity prices. However, the balance of trade amongst the largest economies and emerging markets worldwide are taking up necessary steps & measures avoiding going back to recessionary periods and the global financial crisis of the past. Austerity programs in the European continent is underway with Political policy changes to go alongside with it. Although, the crisis has now rekindled previous resolutions that would try to resolve other European neighboring crisis in other countries have again retested investors confidence in the financial marketplace. This is on top of the Middle-East uncertainty from the Iranian sanctions to the political crisis in Syria with China and Russia pulling their veto strings towards a possible resolution.

With the three major economies deploying strategies like the US QE measures, Japan's repurchasing programs and a slowdown in China has kept a slow global growth indicating investors to do the same in terms of trading activities. Thus making liquidity flowing in the financial markets across the global economies. But even with these measures the trading volumes have declined while investors shifting to the world's Reserve currency and US Dow Jones have reached its current levels in this kind of economic conditions.

The foreign exchange market prices have come to another pivotal point in time where current prices are now at the verge of global price re-alignment in the forex market or in simple terms an equilibrium level where prices would have to re-adjust through market forces before a major market movement would occur contrary to or a continuation of its current trend. There will always be a major corrective move within any major trend either way on its way up or down. Pls. observe the prices of the EURO, EURGBP cross and the USDx price levels dated September 13, 2010 in this article / video and compare the price levels currently in today's markets. The indicators used are one and the same and should assist in being able to determine as to which direction the markets would probably bring to the table for the next best currency to trade within the upcoming major price fluctuation.
Related article: Before a major market action occurs 
                   : FX Trends & Market Opportunities

Counter-Trade Strategies l & ll Settled & Booked

UPDATE: Counter-trade Strategies l & ll executed from these market view trade analysis have been settled & booked prior to the closing trade as of today the 7.05.12

Target levels for the GBPUSD at 1.5510 first objective; GBPJPY at market current market value 123.90 and GBPCHF at the 1.5045/50 has been achieved. This is a considerable amount from the end-result of the ECB rate cut and a day before the NFP figures release. We'll be watching the market movements from hereunto as the strategies successfully implemented would provide us a trading break for the time being. Please refer to the market view analysis and sequential trades listed below. Or visit our website for a detailed report.

Market Analysis - SRO 2.28

Amidst the up coming reports as listed below, the volatility from the previous week have led investors, institutions and speculative traders amongst main-street investors alike winding down market actions.

EURO as of Feb 28, 2012

Despite of some good news from the housing sector did very little to further push the USD above its recent declines. The USDx measured at the 78.50 basis point level is still vulnerable for a continued decline especially coming from a low of 78.20 levels and the unexpected rally of the S&P last Friday.The crucial statements that would be watched would be the statements of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke towards the end of the week.

Meanwhile,the Euro's resiliency to hold above the 1.3250 - 1.3360 range is symbolic contrary to the other reports between Greece sustain conditions and the G20's meeting held in Mexico in maintaining and likewise supporting a stability of the financial markets through the IMF. Although, traders who has also maintained their bias bearish opinion have indeed suffered from its rally specially after coming from a 1.2970 extension low and currently working at the 1.3430 corrective move. On the Technical side, the Euro and the GBPUSD is well in line with the USDx move which targeted its 1st objective reaching a low of 78.20 not too far off from our price call at 78.05/10 levels. For a complete report click on the link: http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view

FOREX: 10 KEYPOINTS

How to Analyze the Analysis

Analysis from market reports can sometimes be confusing for others. The credibility of such reports should well be categorized in their simplest form.

News reports of actual events can and will always be easily related to, since they are indeed actual current events. Being able to relate information compiled or read through while comparing them with actual working graphs that depicts the reason or reasons why prices reacts from these reports is another side of the equation.

In most cases, analyst or financial writers/ traders for that matter would then summarize their respective view points on how they perceive the markets and react accordingly towards it by way of positions taken or not in the market place. Equally more important are for investor/ traders who uses these information alongside their knowledge of interpretation and tools of the trade, to be able to gain from the market movements in exchange for the risk/ tolerance that they are willing to take while literally exposing their investment funds on trade at a given period of time.

However, trading the forex market considers a little more due diligence since the correlation with one another would have to weigh together with other fundamentals that affects the prices worldwide. The ever growing retail broker's coverage of the expanded major currency pairs viewed and summarized by more than a hand-full of currency analyst, strategist and quant analyst making their point across the wires especially coursed-through the Internet channels can equally be compounded.

Therefore, as a matter of guide we have listed below at least 10 key-points to better understand in simplest form; how not to over analyze the analysis whenever taking into consideration related articles on analysis either they be technical orientations in nature or fundamentally related reports. The ultimate decision would have to be totally independent and not be influenced with how an analysis is best presented intellectually or with sophistication. It still boils down to clear transparency in content substance. There are only two positions to choose from which is either to buy or sell.

Link: 10 KEY POINTS: (Not necessarily in order)

Forex Trend Following continues...2

In between the reports, the currency majors were at pause while waiting for the next batch towards the end of the week. However,on the fundamental side of the equation; the recent Fed’s Beige Book statements indeed offered a more positive assessment of how the overall Federal Reserve report were widely interpreted.

By stating that US growth was, “modest to moderate” across most of the US states. while manufacturing maintained its expansion. The statement were more or less in line with the recent data and continued to imply that the US domestic recovery remains on track. And with that said, these statements have supported the technical charts for the major pairs.

On the other hand, the USDX again continued its advance after coming from a temporary correction with a low at 80.80 and rebounded back to the 81.50 levels and currently at 81.23 as of this writing. The US dollar advance by at least 1.05% against the British pound. While adding the Weaker than expected trade balance data out of the UK added to the downward pressure for the sterling / pound falling to a low 1.5305/10 range. And likewise awaiting ahead for the BoE interest rate decision expected to remain the same. A further downward pressure would open extensions at 1.5180 as the 2nd objective in line with the USDX higher than the previous established resistance at 82.05/10 basis point.

For a complete analysis, click on link
http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view

Market Timing in Forex Trading - MegaTrade101

This has always been the case for most traders and strategist whenever trading the Foreign Exchange Market. It would be nice to share some of the successful trades made specially these current market conditions. As they would be very useful for some who may be starting to feel how the FX market really moves when major economic numbers are released. However, there are a lot of worldwide reports to consider within a given period of time and to be able to cover all of them would be quite demanding for a trader.

As correlation in the currency market in particular are as important to every trade position marked in the market. The degree of trading difficulty is ever increasing by the day as uncertainty and unpredictability of wider price fluctuation will always be present. But in recent market conditions, the most impressive price reaction is a currency who has made a dramatic price movement either way and stalls.

This is when traders are contradicting either a follow through or a pullback would be made causing the trader's reluctance and patience to be tested. This also applies to those who are too eager or for those who happens to wait for a confirmation of a price break/confirmation signal. If this were true to the fact, then everyone would be considered a winner.

But the total opposite does happen and the next question would be ...where did I go wrong?

In the Foreign Exchange market, to improve market timing would really depend in developing a keen eye in spotting trade set-ups combined with identifying market behavioral patterns for each currency related trade, focused only on entry & exit price range. Naturally, this would only follow once a strategic trade plan has been established. A certain degree of elimination and process of deduction would always be in place before any trade execution is made. And that is being able to draw an informed and reasonable decision from the due diligence whether such trade plan is worth the risk/reward ratio given a specific period of time exposure in the market.

It is quite easy to enter into a trade at any given time especially if and when the market has enticed the trader to get into a trade by impulse. What is equally important is getting out of the trade alive with at least a fairly good gain. But there are some traders, even seasoned ones who tries to catch the market action in either direction and subsequently would place an order to trade feeling not to be left out for a chance and an opportunity of riding with the market sentiments.
For the complete article including the process of developing 'MARKET TIMING in FOREX TRADING' visit our website: http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/fxminar 

• In addition, please refer to MEGATRADE101 - STRATEGIC FX TRADING TECHNIQUES

Market Reversal - Wolf Call

As the Forex market increases its intense trading activities through the past weeks we have seen some dramatic movements of price fluctuations from the major currencies and the precious metals. With Gold climbing to USD1364.55 high and dropping to as low as USD1327.30 within the North American trading session, while the Euro and the Cable initially topped at the 1.4028 and 1.6016 respective highs also retreated back down have made a lot of traders and analyst called these signals as market reversal. As every blog and articles written for the past 24 hours from most of the retail broker's outlook have signified to this prior to the NFP report today. Its the day where the boy who cried "Wolf"

Every trader always wants to be able to be the first to call and prove their abilities in trading the market. So do we, except with respect to the market it take these things one step at a time. As we try to share our market sentiments the way we see and analyze the market conditions before a possible price movement can happen.

So far, our market view still remains the same and the price reversal that we have seen were just part of the price adjustments made by major players both long settlements and short-covering since position adjustments normally takes place before a major report comes in to the picture. Which we all should be able to excercise due diligence in our trading practises before any major event takes place. Please pay close attention to the market behavior other than anticipating price and trend reversals based only on what the major players in the market place wants you to see. Candlestick formations and bar configurations which every trader sees in front of their computer screens are viewed one and the same. The irony is that every trader that doesn't look into it deeper and simply weigh the technicals would be in deep trouble.

Please excercise every possible caution while trading in these market conditions.

Accessibilty to Secondary Markets Part 1

As every trader, analyst and investors were glued to the senate hearings with the Goldman team, the grilling questions by its chairman and members of the committee has shown the desire for a stricter regulatory body for the financial industry. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs as big as they could be, has undoubtedly have access in secondary markets being market makers for every possible deals that could be thought of.

Accessibility to information, putting together some creative financial packages and knowing where to place them in the market place for investors aware of the risk / reward ratio will always be the underlying advantage for an institution the likes of Goldman Sachs. Being an investment bank, broker-dealer and a major market maker that has the reliable source of information to implement such deals will also experience having to take risk from their holdings or inventories from their books and be able to spread these risks from varies positions made in the open market.

The level of sophistication familiar with these financial instruments on how they work may be quite complicated that everyone may and may not be in the same page understood within the trading mechanism. Making it appear to some as otherwise. The regulatory rule for fiduciary responsibility for the clients and the market makers responsibility of disclosure of positions maybe a very hard question for the senate panel to really understand. The line of questioning would sometimes be leading towards finding misrepresentations from the Goldman team regarding disclosure of other counter party involve in such a deal.

These has a direct correlation as to how the Foreign Exchange market works based on the contributory institutions and banks as reflected in the price action seen on the computer screen. Meaning that in the earlier trading days, institutions and other major banks participating on live FX dealing are shown as to price contributors on both bid/ offer. However, as some of the other trading platforms only shows the price quoted on both sides but not the institution participating in the market. The interbank traders with Thomson-Reuters dealing system knows who are actively trading in the market place.

Transparency on trading , counter-parties involved through broker dealers may sometimes be filtered out since broker dealers are not required to disclose their own portfolio's position, but rather may state that they may or may not have positions in behalf of their own clients. To define a clearer view of proprietary trading is what the regulatory commission would like to achieve at this time to avoid the next financial crisis.

Secondary markets for most trading institutions are carried out for the sake of spreading and managing risk in any asset based financial instrument. The Forex market is no different as the principles of trading has its own definitions to follow. Although, similar approach are made only for those traders, investors and portfolio managers who happens to be a little more sophisticated than others. The information is in the open market. Doing due diligence is just what it takes to have the right source of information, orientation and coming from reliable institutions involve in the industry.