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The primary focus of the each designed program is to define the strengths & enhance the traders' knowledge and timing skills on the ‘Mechanics of High Probability Trades’ with certain levels of Trading Confidence. That delivers trade consistency and skilfully timing the market more often than not!  

"It’s not how good MegaTrade101 mentors are, but it is how good a dedicated trader can be when trading the Foreign Currency Market, which should be reflected in each trading accounts’ bottom line! 

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Market Analysis - SRO 2.28

Amidst the up coming reports as listed below, the volatility from the previous week have led investors, institutions and speculative traders amongst main-street investors alike winding down market actions.

EURO as of Feb 28, 2012

Despite of some good news from the housing sector did very little to further push the USD above its recent declines. The USDx measured at the 78.50 basis point level is still vulnerable for a continued decline especially coming from a low of 78.20 levels and the unexpected rally of the S&P last Friday.The crucial statements that would be watched would be the statements of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke towards the end of the week.

Meanwhile,the Euro's resiliency to hold above the 1.3250 - 1.3360 range is symbolic contrary to the other reports between Greece sustain conditions and the G20's meeting held in Mexico in maintaining and likewise supporting a stability of the financial markets through the IMF. Although, traders who has also maintained their bias bearish opinion have indeed suffered from its rally specially after coming from a 1.2970 extension low and currently working at the 1.3430 corrective move. On the Technical side, the Euro and the GBPUSD is well in line with the USDx move which targeted its 1st objective reaching a low of 78.20 not too far off from our price call at 78.05/10 levels. For a complete report click on the link: http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view

FOREX: 10 KEYPOINTS

How to Analyze the Analysis

Analysis from market reports can sometimes be confusing for others. The credibility of such reports should well be categorized in their simplest form.

News reports of actual events can and will always be easily related to, since they are indeed actual current events. Being able to relate information compiled or read through while comparing them with actual working graphs that depicts the reason or reasons why prices reacts from these reports is another side of the equation.

In most cases, analyst or financial writers/ traders for that matter would then summarize their respective view points on how they perceive the markets and react accordingly towards it by way of positions taken or not in the market place. Equally more important are for investor/ traders who uses these information alongside their knowledge of interpretation and tools of the trade, to be able to gain from the market movements in exchange for the risk/ tolerance that they are willing to take while literally exposing their investment funds on trade at a given period of time.

However, trading the forex market considers a little more due diligence since the correlation with one another would have to weigh together with other fundamentals that affects the prices worldwide. The ever growing retail broker's coverage of the expanded major currency pairs viewed and summarized by more than a hand-full of currency analyst, strategist and quant analyst making their point across the wires especially coursed-through the Internet channels can equally be compounded.

Therefore, as a matter of guide we have listed below at least 10 key-points to better understand in simplest form; how not to over analyze the analysis whenever taking into consideration related articles on analysis either they be technical orientations in nature or fundamentally related reports. The ultimate decision would have to be totally independent and not be influenced with how an analysis is best presented intellectually or with sophistication. It still boils down to clear transparency in content substance. There are only two positions to choose from which is either to buy or sell.

Link: 10 KEY POINTS: (Not necessarily in order)

Forex Trend Following continues...2

In between the reports, the currency majors were at pause while waiting for the next batch towards the end of the week. However,on the fundamental side of the equation; the recent Fed’s Beige Book statements indeed offered a more positive assessment of how the overall Federal Reserve report were widely interpreted.

By stating that US growth was, “modest to moderate” across most of the US states. while manufacturing maintained its expansion. The statement were more or less in line with the recent data and continued to imply that the US domestic recovery remains on track. And with that said, these statements have supported the technical charts for the major pairs.

On the other hand, the USDX again continued its advance after coming from a temporary correction with a low at 80.80 and rebounded back to the 81.50 levels and currently at 81.23 as of this writing. The US dollar advance by at least 1.05% against the British pound. While adding the Weaker than expected trade balance data out of the UK added to the downward pressure for the sterling / pound falling to a low 1.5305/10 range. And likewise awaiting ahead for the BoE interest rate decision expected to remain the same. A further downward pressure would open extensions at 1.5180 as the 2nd objective in line with the USDX higher than the previous established resistance at 82.05/10 basis point.

For a complete analysis, click on link
http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view

Market Timing in Forex Trading - MegaTrade101

This has always been the case for most traders and strategist whenever trading the Foreign Exchange Market. It would be nice to share some of the successful trades made specially these current market conditions. As they would be very useful for some who may be starting to feel how the FX market really moves when major economic numbers are released. However, there are a lot of worldwide reports to consider within a given period of time and to be able to cover all of them would be quite demanding for a trader.

As correlation in the currency market in particular are as important to every trade position marked in the market. The degree of trading difficulty is ever increasing by the day as uncertainty and unpredictability of wider price fluctuation will always be present. But in recent market conditions, the most impressive price reaction is a currency who has made a dramatic price movement either way and stalls.

This is when traders are contradicting either a follow through or a pullback would be made causing the trader's reluctance and patience to be tested. This also applies to those who are too eager or for those who happens to wait for a confirmation of a price break/confirmation signal. If this were true to the fact, then everyone would be considered a winner.

But the total opposite does happen and the next question would be ...where did I go wrong?

In the Foreign Exchange market, to improve market timing would really depend in developing a keen eye in spotting trade set-ups combined with identifying market behavioral patterns for each currency related trade, focused only on entry & exit price range. Naturally, this would only follow once a strategic trade plan has been established. A certain degree of elimination and process of deduction would always be in place before any trade execution is made. And that is being able to draw an informed and reasonable decision from the due diligence whether such trade plan is worth the risk/reward ratio given a specific period of time exposure in the market.

It is quite easy to enter into a trade at any given time especially if and when the market has enticed the trader to get into a trade by impulse. What is equally important is getting out of the trade alive with at least a fairly good gain. But there are some traders, even seasoned ones who tries to catch the market action in either direction and subsequently would place an order to trade feeling not to be left out for a chance and an opportunity of riding with the market sentiments.
For the complete article including the process of developing 'MARKET TIMING in FOREX TRADING' visit our website: http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/fxminar 

• In addition, please refer to MEGATRADE101 - STRATEGIC FX TRADING TECHNIQUES

Mid-week Market Analysis 2

The market's increase volatility have shown price movements on both directions of the market place. As money flows between equities, asset class precious metals market, and the foreign currencies among institutional players. This has not been favorable with the US Dollar. As the US dollar index have now registered 75.75 low as of the Asian trading sessions towards the opening of European trading. Our opening market outlook dated the 24th of October have stated that the momentum would readily build-up as a probable break below the 75.85-76.05 range would cause prices for the EURUSD to make a follow-through heading higher when it has broken the intermediate resistance of 1.3880. Currently touching the 1.4014 high and is at the higher levels as of this writing. 

EURUSD WEEKLKY CHART
As of 10.27

Apparently, as the market prices for the EURUSD and the EURGBP cross rates would now move higher throughout the coming sessions towards the American trading where we do expect a continuation of increase market price action and volatility to be aggressive. Daily price extensions and trading range for the EURUSD would be between the current levels with 1.4080-1.4110 range and as for the EURGBP cross would be seen at the extension range levels of 0.8750-0.8870 respectively. 

These current two days of trading activity to follow will culminate higher as the upcoming report this Friday would also be the catalyst in the final direction for the US Dollar moving forward. However, a word of caution should be properly exercised from hereunto. As these are the typical market conditions where 'bait & trade' are done amongst the bigger institutional / hedge funds prior to closing of the week & turnover positions of the month.  

In essence, watch for the market sentiments and volumes from the European trading hours that may trade the major pairs to their extreme extensions, then spill-over towards the American trading session before the major report on Friday would be release. By then the total opposite would get unsuspecting main street investors what hit them only after the market has moved opposite of the current market price swing.

Notable, compare the price behavior between the USD, Gold prices and oil as their correlation may also weigh for the USDX to move towards the end and opening of the new month by next week. 

Focus on the EURGBP Cross Rate

On a technical perspective the daily EURGBP daily chart formation has all the typical bullish signal in spite of the double top formation that it has been showing including the weekly formations. However, with the continuation of the volatility in the market, not to mention the back & forth scenario establish with the European debt crisis just adds to the wider price fluctuations seen through out the past few weeks.

Now with that said, the irony of the matter is that the idiosyncrasy of the GBPUSD / EURGBP has time and again been proven that such a formation would otherwise move to the direction higher than most would really expect. Currently, with the EURGBP taking its steps further higher is at the 0.8926. With a steadier Euro from fundamentally supported by iad for Greece ( for now) again have been quite supportive for the cross rate as well. The reaction counter to the USDX corrective movement at the 75.50 from a 75.96 high made it happen. The EURUSD steadier to normal higher move with a secondary move lower for the GBPUSD would fuel the next leg higher for the cross to attain it initial objective above the 0.9010 or better. Depending on the volumes and momentum build up would determine the time frame that this move would hold for the time being.

Plus the 'Rising Three Methods' identified on the candlestick formation would trigger technicians to re-establish long EURGBP positions the same way we have done so. This strategy is applied to maximize the profit and market potential of the EURGBP strength, with slight to lower corrective moves for the GBPUSD to fuel the direction higher. While the EURUSD holds just above the 38% Fibonacci rising fan formation as indicated on the chart. This has been our simple approach applied whenever such typical candlestick formation occurs. Keeping the short with protective trailing stops to liquidate/settle our shorts on the way up; while maintain a cross trade long ( short term daily basis) on the EURGBP to cover the probable loss on floating pips on the GBPUSD. Thus maximizing the market potential on both directions without having to sacrifice the quality of trades made from the past week of June 07 to the current time frame involve. Please refer to our continuing market strategies applied from June 07 from our market view analysis and the corresponding chart formation and video supporting these technical applications. However it may be, as the strategies made are with a substantial, managed and appropriate funds portfolio with a well defined risk appetite to follow whenever the opposite occurs.

Euro reacts on Confidence vote!

As the market anticipates a crucial decision for Greece government led by PM Georgios Papandreou will survive as he revamped his cabinet to make certain that a continued support for austerity would be made. That is inspite of the continued strikes and protest against the programs. This has prompted the EURUSD to move higher to 1.4432 and the cross rate on the EURGBP to move back upwards to the 0.8883 high respectively. Yet, the unconvincing rally can only be considered to be a correction from its low; as no other significant momentum build-up for the Euro to move further was indicated. the only exception was the negative figures on existing home sales that added to the USDX to move lower back below the 75.05 near term support price level.

With commercials still dominating the market place, we do expect a continuation of this near-term rally on a daily basis with wider trading ranges that may run out of steam nearing the closing of the month's trading. Although, the FOMC and the EU June 23-24 meeting would be dictating the direction for the market by then leaving a much wider room for volatility to increase significantly.

And even the precious metals and stocks have been the beneficiaries of this continued market condition after experiencing a roller coaster ride from the past week's trading. With Gold prices back up at the USD1550.00 levels from a low at USD1510.45 and the Dow Jones at the 12190.00 levels.

Ripple effects in the FX Market

The center stage is still focused on the Japanese crisis that has been the highlights in all the financial markets. Not withstanding the blow of the earthquake and the tsunami but including the nuclear meltdown currently occurring in the already damaged nuclear facilities near the epic center of Sendai in the Northeast side of the Japanese capital in Tokyo.

Although, the first immediate reaction of the FX market for the yen to have gained strength against a possible loss in value is now being supported by the BOJ infusion of liquidity in Yen value to sustain the market's jittery reaction to the drop on the Nikkei stock market. Understandably, the aftermath of these occurrences have to lead to a recession-like for Japan in the next few months. Until such time that they do have a stronger grip of the situation regarding containing the probable nuclear fallout from the nuclear reactors.

Although, BOJ and its Finance ministry would not allow this to happen in an abrupt manner, though the eventuality would still be the same. the overall market reactions from the foreign exchanger market has been a mixture of market prices behaving rather irrationally. As the prospects for a USD led recovery has been slowed even further with the third largest economy dampening slower growth across the board.

So what does this mean for the Forex market?

For a complete analysis of the market visit our website: www.megatrade101.com

The 3 Winning pairs!

On a fundamental stand point, there are only three (3) major highlights to be concerned about namely, the Australian Unemployment report, the Bank of England rate decision and again, Friday's University of Michigan Confidence numbers. Other than the back-drop of news surrounding the Foreign Exchange and the commodities markets particularly the oil and precious metals has had no immediate impact to the deteriorating US Dollar.
Whereas, the USDX has remained above the achieved target level of 76.80/90 range as mentioned in our market view analysis last week that a re-test would be attempted. Currently at 77.84; its indecision to move in either direction have shown that market sentiments is on a wait and see attitude. However, the previous week's candlestick configuration indicates a corrective move upwards as expected by most traders. The FX market price movements have been favorable to most mid-term trade strategies rather than for day traders who would be more impatient to find the next big trading range. Thus making short-term traders do more by scalping the market with a few 10-20 pips and surprising making retail brokers make more than usual. No problem with that, its how they make their revenue from.

However, the general outlook for the Euro and Pound other than fundamentals would still be the continuing efforts made by the current players on the EURGBP cross rate. Currently, breathing a positive tone of 0.8442 as compared with the EURUSD at 1.3639 and 1.6149 for the GBPUSD respectively. The previous week's capped of 1.3880 as indicated is still the numbers to watch for the Euro which is supporting the cross rate as of this writing.

Visit our website at http://megatrade101.com/ for a complete market analysis.

Only the best for your trades!

USD's Directional Trade

Tight Squeeze!

Witht the conflicting news reports from the manufacturing figures, non-farm payrolls and now the disappointing umeployment figures have squeezed the US Dollars movement to move lower. This normally happens in between trades as traders, fund managers, sophisticated investors and the retail speculative trades made makes it more difficult to trade the foreign exchange specially at the beginning of the year. With barely a couple of weeks into the trading, the resiliency of the market to react to these fundamental reports can be seen on the charts themselves.

As most trades are made indirectly away from a dollar based trading to a simple foreign currency base trading. More often than not, the cross rates serves relatively a contrary hedge not only for the US dollar but amongst the other major currencies involved. The applications can only be made more ideal since trading directly with the major pairs at this time may well be susceptible to wild price swings in the market.

A typical example of a tight squeeze could be seen in the chart of the EUR/GBP cross rate that clearly indicates that the past couple of weeks were simply bargain hunting and position adjustments before and after the holiday trading sessions. However, the directional trade of the Euro and the British Pound is contrary to the US Dollar's downward movement as of this writing.EUR/USD working at the 1.4520 and the GBP/USD at 1.6137 reacting to the negative US jobs report.

Meanwhile, the obvious gold prices is still working at $1,156.00 higher which has its own relative strength regardless of the US Dollar movement at this time. More likely scenario t move back an attempt its previous high of last year is seen to be more of a strong sentiment. How fast it can get there is the next big question mark.

Both major such as the USD/CHF and the USD/JPY may find some difficulty as both try to react to a spread hedge and straddle scenario where the USD/JPY moves higher/ slower and the strength of the Swiss Francs or rather the USD/CHF moving the opposiite direction. USD/CHF at 1.0169 and the USD/JPY is at 92.32 from a 93.77 high. A technically influenced USD/CHF on a day to day basis shows an obvious selling divergence that weighs heavily on the US dollar rather than the Japanese Yen as trades are made during the Asian markets.

Try to avoid to get caught in between these trades as a tight squeeze would continue to occur specially when the major players decide to build and continue to adjust their positions from the previous moths and the start of this year.

Good Luck and Happy Trading !