The opening of the 2nd quarter for the Foreign Exchange market has been expectedly been volatile with prices going in both directions daily across the board due to several re-emerging news from Greece, Spain, Germany and the United States. With the European elections as the earleir front-runners the effects on the US Dollar has been supportive not to mention the performances of the stocks, precious metals and oil prices earlier mentioned that should likewise be considered in the overall market outlook.
The slow but certain trend direction upwards for the US Dollar has significantly given its initial signal since the earlier week of March as previewed in our sequence of market analysis that led to the confirmation of the strength of the USDx.
The consolidating base formation and trading range has been defined with the techncial support price of 78.05/10 level and a consolidated resistance at the 80.05 before its break higher. Currently at the 80.55 basis point; where some daily corrective movement lower would be expected. Since the gravity of the JP Morgan 2BUSD loss is being played down in the market while the highlight of the German economy seems to overshadow the investors uncertainty in Europe have given the FX market a milder room to breath for the next market direction. Inspite of the EURUSD meeting its target levels working below 1.2850. An important key price to watch whereby the daily & weekly price would have to re-align with the moving averages and a base for consolidation would be made before the next leg would be resumed.
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| USDCHF as of MARCH 15 AISAN TO EUROPEAN MARKET TRADING SESSIONS |
Meanwhile, a more direct correlation in price and market movement is the USDCHF meeting its projected target higher above the 0.9300 with a registered high at 0.9371. While breaking its weekly trading range between 0.9000 & 0.9220 was the equivalent range in line with the USDx 78.09 - 79.85 basis point. But for some traders and strategist who may have done more research and due diligence would have identified the pivotal price of 79.18 EMA for the USDx was an established technical double bottom. Of course, its always easier said after the fact. However, the fact remains that eversince then the prices trended higher to where it is currently working at 80.55 basis point.
That was the cue in taking the long side of the USDCHF initial entry at 0.9043 dated the 26th of March. And a secondary position at 0.9288 on the break-away higher. Leaving us with a very good ave. price level of 0.9165 with an average size of half a dollar in trade. With extensions on the high side above the 0.9405/45 range for the week. Do expect some daily corrections along the way. We'll consider a settlement and or a cross-trade depending on the market conditions towards the week's reports. Expect some daily corrections and we'll consider a settlement and or a cross trade depending of the market conditions. But a protective cross with the EURJPY / GBPJPY or USDJPY would also be considered as well. Market flexibility is good to practise as one remains un-bias towards market donditons whenever some news arises unexpectedly.
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