#TSOT - Strategic Sequence of #YEN Related Trades

Adapting to Sentiments Across four (4) Major markets!

USDJPY hits 104.64 low that triggered an equivalent drop on the NK225 at 20559, likewise setting NKDM2018 Futures at 20195; wide price differential and the Yen Futures at 0.009600 inverse price relation with a premium over spot. the strategy is quite expensive though well worth the risk taken as we adjust with the bearish and bullish trade conditions and market sentiments. 

A complex trade strategy which we are accustomed to that magnifies the market potential when the trend signal was first defined last Feb 14 from our market outlook. And with the directional move confirmed when it reached 105.50 and now have broken below these levels.

Thus VALIDATING our price and market call from Feb 14 to the close of March 23, 2018. The sequence of analysis and price action took more than a month from the time the information was conceptualized with the USDJPY last February was still trading at 107.09. And a plan of action was built upon this trade idea moving forward. In any trade call where a greater probability of a market potential in the making needs a follow-through trade especially when the directional trend and price action is reflected right on the charts.

Click to continue

Relative Information:
Japanese Yen & Equities at the Crucial Cross Road

Alternative Trade Strategy: Equity Index, Futures & Currency Markets

Adapting to Bear Market Conditions 

Market disruption from President Trump's declaration of Steel and Aluminum Tariff which could turn into a TRADE WAR and add to INFLATIONARY pressure have driven the USD back down. This 'protectionism' behavior has been played by Trump for sometime which gives the market the condition of uncertainty that leads to equities in the decline. 

This was breaking news during Fed Chair J Powell's testimony when equities where actually recovering higher and the DXY was above 90.50 level that resulted again into a market turn around and currently below the 90.00 mark. While the DOW in another triple digit sell off at 24315 as of this writing. And then again today's drop is no exception as bears are practically in control of the market at this time.

As we made mention that the markets are surrounded by all sort of drivers, whereas fear of another massive decline may well be in the making viewed by other analyst. Although, triple digit move when added altogether is quite substantial. And the trade war has been added to the equation for a really bearish market outlook at this time.

As we have been quite fortunate picking the right market instruments in a relatively declining market. And the NIKKEI 225 futures (describe below) have been more aligned with current market conditions with the USDJPY doing the same. Flight to quality indeed has been proven true time and again.

Let's see and keep a clear watch when a 'rest in motion' across the market can provide us a better glimpse heading into the last few weeks of the 1st quarter trading of 2018. Although, we'll remain with the USD time frame as it has been defined with the Fed's schedule of rate hikes.

IMPLICIT NARRATIVES Behind the PH STOCK MARKET

Real Market Transparency is a MUST!

On a thinly traded market, Foreign outflows have not been convinced to re enter the PH stock market at this time. After the recent high marked at 9078 it has been a considerable down hill trend marked at 8379 low for the local market. Of course with a few relief price recovery for the PSEI made in the recent trading days from a 'Last Minute Rally' after the pm market intervention while the underlying stocks gets stuck at the bottom of the barrel. As there is no sign of fresh inflows from Foreign investors. Where local bargain hunters NOT sufficient to raise the bar of trading on the #PSEI and their respective stock components.

From a High @9078 to a Low @8379 respectively

What's behind these moves? And how main street PH investors including retail traders navigate through these types of market conditions.

Send us an email to request a comprehensive report and analysis.

NOTE: TSOT Club International US Asian members gets these special reports as part of their membership. Serious inquiries and verifiable email address only would be appreciated. Replies would be made accordingly.

Email to: info@megatrade101.com

'FORKING WALTZ' between BITCOIN & BITCASH

#BCHUSD Benefits As #BTCUSD Drifts on Profit-taking & Alternative Moves

TUG of WAR has just started a DIVERGENT TREND DIRECTION 

The weekend proves to be a 'Forking Waltz' between #BitCoin and #BitCash price divergence in today's price action. The relative decline of Bitcoin below the USD7000 after making a quick stop at 7888 would seem to be the initial trade reaction from the surge of BitCash in the USD1350.00 as of today.

Increasing Volumes on New Trade Entry

The probability of the some traders switching into BitCash is just a fraction of Bitcoins prices, but trading above the USD1000 mark in a relatively rapid pace can still be attributed to the kind of market behavior of spot BTCUSD into the equivalent market. Although, we are anxious enough for the upcoming Bitcoin ETF that would be launch by Power-Shares and BITCOIN Futures by the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the CBOE - Chicago Board Options Exchange. 

The similarity can still progress into the same volatility at  first but will tame into a better trading scope as the new market would grow  steadily on its own sooner than everyone would expect. And in spite of the fact that some sees the community being divided into their own financial choices. But the way we view this industry would be in a manner of preference on how this should best serve the investor's interest other than the financial objectives set by companies and institutions that makes up the entire industry as a whole.   

   Diminishing Volumes on Profit-taking activity

BITCOIN Still in Search of New Record Highs

#BTCUSD price have marked a 6316.85 high on the 29th of October and so far is maintaining its stance reflecting a new search for a newer high. This is on top of a declining volume that has kept prices relatively high on good demand and positive market sentiments against contradicting statements made on wall street.

Price Update: At USD6571.00 As of Nov 1, 2017 

Price Update: As of Oct 31, 2017

Once #BTCUSD broke the 5000k mark with a significant move; it has entered a new phase where a new higher channel have been established that serves as the 2nd channel & compartmentalize its price action in search of newer record levels. And the 6316.85 proves that point.Meanwhile, the current price at 6550 is well on its way to our projected price range nearest to 6780.

Reference to Ideal Price Range Objective between 6250 - 6780

Related Information: 

CME Group Announces Plans to Launch BITCOIN Futures 

Bloomberg Chart that best describes BITCOIN rapid acceleration

ProShares Files for BITCOIN ETF and One to Bet Against It

This has been widely anticipated as #ProShares prepares alternatives ways for investors and traders alike to potentially carry a certain degree of manageable risk surrounding trading the digital currency. Its acceptance , though slowly building into a real global powerhouse as its block-chain technology backbone is now getting into important Fintech related industry levels and companies developing into the future.

 

CNBC: ProShares Files for Bitcoin ETF  

A well thought and planned addition and outright solution for the #Futures and #ETF market. If it can be done with the volatile #FX market so can it be made possible with #Bitcoin and its related financial instruments. Though it still take some time to get all things ready by then market landscape for digital currency would be widely accepted. Especially when these instruments would be traded in the US where regulatory requirements are well managed. Accredited and most sophisticated investors may well be the first ones to engage once all systems are a go. 

Likewise a welcome treat for us at MegaTrade101 as we facilitate and relate to the modernization of our clientele that would be provided a selective choice of instruments that would best fit while serving their respective objectives. The relevance of trading and investing in today's changing market conditions is important moving forward to aim for Alpha in spite of the global low rates eventually would change in the near future starting of with the US Federal Reserve.

Tracking the PSEI and iShares MSCI PH ETF - EPHE

Today, Sept. 28, 2017 is the 7th year anniversary since its inception date for the iShares MSCI PHILIPPINE ETF, US based EPHE ETF that tracks the PSE Index. Although, it carries a higher expense ratio of 0.64%; it is primarily used as an investment & hedge strategy for fund managers both US and Asian based investors in tracking the performance of the PH stock market.

The strategic advantage especially for sophisticated portfolio managers is the access and availability of Options that can accommodate both sides of the market direction whenever it is needed to be applied either on short-medium to long term investment strategies. Unfortunately the PSE does not provide these types of access in the local bourse.

Highlight for the PSEI as of Sept 28, 2017.

 A typical case scenario where a major correction of the #PSEI after marking a high at 8321 and unexpectedly pulled back towards an 8119 low; only to came back to 8221 and reverted back to the 8115 low for today. A whipsaw or a roller coaster ride would be the appropriate term. And this is where speculative day traders would like to see but would stay away from.

Thus, corporation, financial institutions and high net worth individuals have to access the #EPHE ETF (Fact Sheet Reference - BLACK ROCK) pdf through Foreign based firms with established Philippine offices that are authorize to deal such instruments in a global basis. Indeed, a distinct advantage for those who has the capability of doing so. Unfortunately, main street retail traders and investors would have to simply contend with what is currently availbable by the exchange and broker firms.

But at least, knowing the fact that there are trading solutions available and work their way through to have access to other global markets is of vital importance. Whenever investors engage in these types of volatile conditions it is a must to consider and do it right in the first place..

Rational Objectivity in Trading

Often times news emanating from the financial media can be defined as to what issues are well worth reporting when it comes to stocks. Investors turned traders need to know how to read financial media reporting by being rational in analyzing whether such reports would have a significant effect on these prices.

More importantly, how to cut through these news by filtering out what is real or simply being hype for these stocks to make it more attractive for investors. By objectively identifying the potential effects or probable market reaction is something to watch for. The expected price action could either be positive or contrary to the expected price direction of the reports. This is where investors particularly main street retail traders would have to contend themselves with what is available with the right media where most traders monitor may consider & deem to be from reliable sources.
 
At this point, investors & traders alike may opt to use 'Trend-following Strategies' that can filter market price misdirection from certain news / reports based on the 'Price Action Analysis'. Including how the market's behavioral pattern, whenever identified, affects the overall trend direction specially in the near term outlook and indeed a matter of market perspective. As most investors protect and grow their capital the way they see fit, traders more often make necessary adjustments depending on the immediate effects on these news particularly when it is detrimental to their trade position.

Others may simply elect to weather the storm for as long that they have other strategies accessible for them to use in the event of a dramatic net change in their bottom line. When there are only a couple of limited alternatives in trading like the PH Stock markets; with such strategy, either 'Cost Averaging' a position and/or simply 'Cutting losses' ... profit-taking is a given! It would advisable for investors to find other equally important alternatives to trade and invest in. There are certain strategies which can be applied to meet the goals and financial objectives when investors can trade the global markets with access to other alternative market options.

Alexander
info@megatrade101.com

#PSEI Drifts Lower: #US #NOKOR & Earnings Report

There's more than meets the eye!

The PH stock market's profit taking activity as reported by most analyst reports in Bloomberg TV Philippines is an understatement. And this is contrary to the PSEI's market behavior where price action have been quite limited to and identified with a higher opening and drifting lower at the end of the day. There has been more down days with only a couple of up-ticks as a corrective move with the market's relative price action behavior that had market participants take action from their relatively real short-term position.

The average true range of 100 +/- points from its 'daily high / low' have been an obvious take from the market price behavior with a range between 8100 high - 7860 low. Thus leading some stock prices to drift even lower with barely a few stocks backing the intermediate trend lower. On the technical perspective, price action has been limited towards a negative bias with Industrial weighing on the general market direction, while financials have maintained its posture with a few hiccups from Holdings sector. PSEI Comparison between Index Sectors.

Although some have attributed the declines more towards a few heavy weights negative earnings report that saw prices making new lows, on top of the added pressure coming from geopolitical fundamentals the US and North Korea have sent global stocks lower.

True to its effect of a negative contagion increasingly spreading among global sentiments, the market's ability to overcome such 'Relative Misdirection' would be contained as evidenced by how the US have downplayed it from their recent media statements. So what would be your trade plan for the coming weeks? If you don't have one just follow our info sharing on the market that can be useful for traders and investors alike.

#BTCUSD Record Rally Above 3000 Mark

Driven by Volumes, Momentum and Market Price Sentiment have allowed Bitcoin to surpass the 3k mark; trading at 3380 as of this writing. Its 'Collective Market Cap' equally past the USD50B mark led to investors demand of the digital currency to record levels. Which we think also added to the positive tone that the global stocks and investors sentiments from the better than expected figures from the JOBS report have likewise spilled over to the Bitcoin market. As the recent acceptance from Japan and Korea added to fuel its growth potential in the near term rally.

As of August 7, 2017

For now, the overall technical perspective we defined has been limited to the figure best described below as prices have continued to move higher towards the 3200 levels well above the projected objective. No matter how prices extend to greater heights, we'll take it and watch were an exhaustion can be set in place, whenever there would be one to this writing.

Meanwhile. our GBTC Investment Trust is back towards the USD525.00 with a convincing opening gap that could lead towards a run away price gap supported by the solid fundamentals of BTCUSD heading on to this week.  

Notice the similar chart formation that we have applied which have signaled a high degree of probability for BITCOIN to attempt a newer high. Although, the parallel lines projected have set its higher goal, it has gone through the USD3250 levels.  A Clear, Clean and Simpler Approach Defines Trade Potential once Identified! And Results delivered after the fact.

As of August 11, 2017 - VALIDATION Price Update

#BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE: ABOVE 3700 Extension weighs in Market price from momentum trades. 

When the such price behavior runs in a pattern from its decline it can rally in a similar pattern once a reversal has been identified. The market run in this particular case was in multiples of USD300 +/- value unlike with the AUSSIE Dollar previously described. However, such methods can go in a variety of ways applied depending on the market conditions. The difference is huge simply because the market runs on price and momentum acceleration from demand and market sentiments.    

 

As of Aug 18, 2017 UPDATE: #BITCOIN Steam Fades on Profit-taking
Validation

#BITCOIN Steam Fades from Profit-taking

Choices & Decisions #investing #trading #Digital #Currency

The obvious #BTCUSD run came into an initial wall that saw prices drifting lower at the end of the week's trading above USD4050 from a recent high at 4480.00. Traders and speculative investors have managed to hang-on as demand could be felt from price action movements. And waited until prices marked its high nearest to the USD5000 initial objective which prompted to cashing gains gradually as its continued to drift lower towards the closing week.

Smart Ideas For Asian - PH High Value Net Worth #Investors #Traders

In the near term it would be wise to preserve PHP value. But the PHP weakness at the moment can not relate to the same weakness of the USD; as both currency are loosing some ground for sometime now. Do not expect the PHP to gain as much ground until the end of the 3rd quarter due to the fact that the PH is at a current account deficit so much more when the PHP weakness in value continues by then.

Therefore, whenever the stock market declines it becomes a triple whammy for PHP investors, as funds in stocks takes more than a year or so to have at least a decent enough gain especially for retail investors. Knowing how to stay properly invested without having to sacrifice being liquid enough to stay afloat and move in these types of market conditions takes a lot of due diligence and guidance.

And the only time you'd know is when it hits you!  

USDPHP as of July 22, 2017

Market Strategy: AUD Futures & Spot FX to Leverage a Potential Market

An excellent reference and guide to spread an initial leverage position using the AUD Futures market and combining Spot AUDUSD to average upon market confirmation and validation. Futures would be settled first ahead of the spot FX position.

The technical spinning top was the first indicator that a price reversal was in the making. This signal was used to time EFP's and conversion of PHP into Aussie Dollar since the USD is likewise in a weaker state. A strategy well worth applied for institutional and high net worth investors. 

Reference: Sequence of Trades in Australian Dollar

Futures & Spot Market in FX 

#NASDAQ Post Triple Digit Decline #DOW Remains Steady For Now

After marking records highs for the three major indexes, it is just right to assume that the NASDAQ clears some of its trades first being able to extend its gains heading towards the end of the 2nd quarter. As the major Tech stocks have already been overweight along with the SPDR XLK ETF giving way in the same manner that the tech stock heavyweights pullback down earlier than anticipated.

Comparing SPDR Tech ETF Vs. Three (3) Major Equity Indexes 

A psychological mark left traders investors speculate that such rapid moves can again be attributed to the 'FLASH CRASH' as most industry players have assumed coming into account of a rapid decline at the moment. However, it maybe, the case of the decline would not discounted as it would remain at the backend of trader's mind which can now lead into cashing more positions which would lighten up the load in the market.

This is what institutional players would really like to see. Yet, due diligence should dictate where money flows into as the results of Friday's move have remained that secular market forces in the #DOW remains resilient contrary to this rapid fire action at the closing price. On top of which, would likewise provide a relatively good correction could have traders simply taking a breather before adjustments / repositioning would be made in appropriate levels.

The chart above reflects a market trend and percentage comparison of the major indices excluding the USD Index. As the USD recent relief recovery does not justify a market call as of now but it does have a lot to do with 'CORRELATION' in the next quarter opening for the third (3rd) quarter of 2017. For now, the #DOW's market resiliency have remained higher contrary to the #NASDAQ's decline.  Which side and what plan of action in the market would you take?

#EPHE -EXTENDED market ADVANTAGE Equivalent to #PSEI - PH Stock Index 1 & 2

Price & Strategy Update as of May 05, 2017 from April 25, 2017

PSEI Update: As of 5.05.17 PSEI marks a high at 7908 while closing with a corrective move at 7841.Buy-side Investors on the IShares MSCI EPHE - ETF recently closed at 37.11. With a comparative analysis of the charts below would enjoy a continuing price rally as an extension of an arbitrage strategy in place that would capture the PH rally on both sides of the continental market.

A Continuing Sequence of Market Strategy Two (2) weeks in the making

The Ability to Trade in an extended US market

Not all strategies are the same! By taking advantage of the EPHE Equivalent to the PSE - PH market  would enable tactical investors & professional traders the valid extension of the rally in both major market.

Knowing how to better understand a 'Market Misdirection' can still be defined as a healthy corrective move on certain times as reflected on the chart. However, there are distinct 'correlation & significant difference between the two. With the corresponding price equivalent of the PSEI price action along side the EPHE. An effective strategy that +megatrade101 applies as the overall trend continues to move higher and still has room for advances as a technically motivated 'W' formation is in the making.

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

#NASDAQ Continues Its Course!

Validates Market & Price Call as of March 20, 2017

As of today's US session the NASDAQ registered a price high at 5983.43 short of the 6000 mark we have called last March 20, 2017. And the French elections were the main catalyst for the move as it provided a positive tone for a Pro - EU president as a result of the BREXIT vote in the UK.



Excerpt:

"Although, we have seen some relative corrections with the DOW & SP500; the NASDAQ have remained resilient as it had been aiming an exceptional price mark at 6000 levels entering the 2nd quarter trading. (Click to view NASX Chart)  That is also why we have called the NASDAQ to outperform the rest of the indices for the 1st quarter of 2017 (give & take few)."

The Globex Market has been a welcome treat for those who have taken advantage on the market's ability to trade the e-mini futures prior to the opening of the US session. The value it brings for investors and futures traders alike is huge. As extended trading hours for the indices can be vital for trading decisions especially with the global time difference between exchanges. 

Although, there are distinctions trading equities, indices and the foreign exchange market, but by simply knowing how all these instruments are "CORRELATED' tactical investors and market strategists takes these markets into consideration. 

For those who are unfamiliar with the GLOBEX MARKET click to find out the vital reasons why investor / strategist should be aware and simply know how all these works to truly manage a trading portfolio.

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

7585 Marks the SPOT - PSEI Follows Through with a Bull Run

A 2nd Day in a row, PSEI staged a stronger follow-through as PRICE ACTION accompanied by volumes & momentum increase with Philippine Stock Index marks 7585 session high. A triple digit average is expected to be traded for the first week of the 2nd quarter trading. Majority of the sectors are on the green! This would allow the EPHE - US equivalent to trade higher which extends the 'Risk Adjusted Returns' for those investors who had a spread bet in favor of the PSEI from the consolidation period, where positioning is best placed forward before this rally. Although, profit taking would not be discounted as price pullbacks among listed companies by main-street investors can occur and will happen before the end session.

PSEI as of 4.05.17

Relative Sequence of Analysis before the Rally:

Applying A Comparative Price Analysis: PSEI Vs. EPHE 

The Importance of Knowing Where Prices Started

The previous decline of the PSEI at the 7120, 7146 ,7150 levels three times in a row have proven to be resilient. Where the PSEI equivalent ETF traded under the IShares MSCI Philippine - EPHE, as shown on the chart below is in a rising near term trend compared with the initial signal last March 07, 2017. In turn signaled by a technical bullish price reversal of a spinning top near the 33.00 support level that triggered a price recovery

FOR US-ASIAN & PH Retail Stocks Traders & Investors
Something's Got to Give! Where would an Investor / trader Stand?

#TSOT - The Square Root Principle, Trading Relevance & Applications in Stocks
Its Application & Relevance in PSEI - PH Stock Market Trading - Premium Access Required

When the Market Speaks, Listen & Engage Wisely

Learn to Apply & Level the Playing Field

The market price movement speaks for itself as record levels are marked. While Asian stocks trails behind from continuing 'TREND DIVERGENCE' which other Asian analyst still need to respect. Growth in Investment Portfolio and protecting / preserving value to build-up equity from other alternative global markets needs to be incorporated into the equation. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02% the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.17% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.41% to finish at all-time highs on successive days. A clear market direction which has been defined, respected and not anticipate a turn round ahead of these market conditions.

DOW As of FEB 17, 2017

These are the types of market conditions that MegaTrade101 emphasizes for US-Asian / PH Investors where such 'Divergence' on Stock Market prices can be taken advantage of and benefit from having access to global equities build additional revenue instead of experiencing a double whammy of value losses from the PH stocks on top of a weakening PHP value. Thus doing justice for investors investment portfolio as a whole rather than simply taking on individual stock picks hammered down by a contagion mining sector.

Learn to Apply & Level the Playing Field

CCY Heading Into 1st Mid-Quarter Trading

What to Expect with the USD CABLE & AUD Crosses (Tier 3 Analysis)

The increase in market volatility would create a wider price range from where the prices are current at. The likes of the USD where a good price recovery from its corrective phase has covered a reasonable ground from where it started at the 99.55. While this price came trading from its high at 103.82 in Jan. 2017.

AUDCNH CROSS

The previous high at 103.55-103.82 now serves as a price resistance that may well place a selling pressure price point as the created divergence exist everytime it trades close to those levels. However, the technical price adjustment from its correction has been made, therefore the adjusted-risk of taking on the recovery for the USD is fairly acceptiable at these current levels.

CCY Heading Into Mid-quarter Trading

CABLE Validates Classic Opening GAP Price Reversal

CABLE Reference Opening GAP 

date as of Jan 16, 2017

#CABLE @1.2594 N. High Confirms Price Reversal After Opening GAP similar to the what transpired from POST UK Exiting ERM dated Sept 1992. Even when there was a follow-through on the way up, only then when price levels sets a new high for the new month of January can we claim a validation & confirmation.

The classic opening gap was indeed a price reversal even after touching its previous low @1.1986 before making a follow-through to the upside. This was in line with the extension levels of the DXY @103.55 high that gave way for a corrective move lower until today currently below 100 basis point.  Alternating trade sequence with the DX Futures Short @103.40  dated Jan 06, 2017; is a strategic move to cover any adverse / contrary price direction from the prevailing major trend as prices for CABLE are well within a down trend in spite of its recent rally. This provides traders the ability to maintain an 'UNBIAS' stance and the ability to effectively cross trade with the futures whenever necessary in their market analysis and strategies.

CABLE is trading @1.2594 as a new high for January can find some resistance @1.2775 - 1.2880 levels. That is there would be more interest for CABLE to build up its momentum as long as the USD does continue to trade weaker.

CABLE Cloud Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/egdkeVlh/

Markets Paying Close Attention

Participants from traders, analyst and investors alike are closely focused on the new inaugurated US President as what his first week moving forward would he really be taking action. This have given the market some breathing room yet the 1st re-attempt to fuel another rally has been quite soft to the dismay of investors. The clamor for #DOW 20k have diminished despite of the come back of Oil and the decline of the #USD. That is why the ability to 'Hedge' what has been gained should be well protected or simply cashing it in for starters. Maximizing full market potential is another alternative trading decision & strategy when called upon. Using Futures market as a market preference. 

The continued weakness of the USD from the 103.56 high to its current levels near the 100 figure have given European majors and Asian currencies a breather for a price recovery which was more than welcomed particularly for CABLE, EURO & the AUSSIE Dollar. Meanwhile the USDJPY have been trading in both directions with a narrowing range from 115 -112.00 plus or minus

The first month of the year's trading is what we call a 'feeling your way' into the market as extreme 'Divergence' between Asia and US markets while the room for price re-alignment is still in the making from the start of January 2017. What it means, would be a clear range trading activity with some attempts of a continued weakness of the USD while secular forces would remain passive. Although, when volumes & momentum do pick up we'll be able to see some price action least expected. For as long as the USD remains and confined within its range we'll be more on a consolidation before any real action occurs.