US Equities Corrective Moves are Relatively Good

That depends whether you're a  'Bull or Bear'

With the way prices has moved after that rebound Monday, a lot of mix outlook from analyst have driven market players around the word 'Uncertainty' again. With Oil prices taking center stage as it drifts lower into negative territory as it has been officially claimed have caused DOW & SP500 prices to follow suit after Monday's rally. And the obvious price action between these two (2) indices are relatively contracting as we see today.

Currently, with Oil prices trading @43.35 along side with the precious metals such as Gold below the USD1250.00 as the USD gains ground from its 96.32 basis point low from last week's trading activity is something to watch for.

This includes the probability of a market consolidation with price swings in both directions could occur even after June 23, 2017. Where we do expect some market volatility being the triple witching day a week ahead to the end of the 2nd quarter trading for 2017. The level of difficulty contrary to this is the fact that we have called a wider price swings after the USD reached its 103 bp mark and drifted lower at the mid-range of its high and low band. And is currently at a price recovery mode @97.70.

Our take on these equity indices declines are limited to an orderly correction in the double digits contrary to what others have been clamoring for. But these moves would barely budge well selected stocks as investors alternating  trade plays dominate alongside the Nasdaq and Dow equities. Which is what we are applying are trades from as well. While all these price swings create a price pullback well within the session that also includes validation from technical divergences that have occurred prior to the continuing trend.

#TSOT - Comparative Analysis SPX UDN UUP DXY

Case study of 'Correlation Strategy Applied' In Trading

For the SP500 - In comparison with the recent USD decline while the 'Relative Value of the USD' is still strong with the exception of its corrective move below the 100 mark. Taking advantage of the USD decline from its previous high at the 103.36 with an ETF: Power Shares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) mirror image of the DXY overlay with the UUP prices can provide a relative trade value and strategy that captures & protect the gains made.

1st Quarter Strategy: USD, Equities, ETF & Foreign Currency Trading

Carry-over to 2nd Quarter Trading

The USD Index has always been the 'Core Strategic Instrument & Trade Strategy' applied in almost all our trade decisions, its correlation with the US & global major indices have played a vital role especially the 1st quarter trading positions for 2017. Once a focal price point has been established and proven valid through the test of time (DXH2017 settled before expiration), it would remain resilient until otherwise contradicted by price action and initiate alternative USD correlated instrument.

Ensuring a continuing trend direction a combination of Futures, Options and ETFs are vital for a sequence of trades that can best maximize market potential. A clear USD Bearish Fund UDN trade position prior to futures expiration would best suit the strategy. However, there are a lot of strategies accessible only for those who would do their respective due diligence.
      
With the three (3) most recent 'Correlated' market information chronologically listed, the components of the analysis have proven to be as effective until the market states otherwise. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) opening in the Asian trading session at 99.45 and marked a low at 99.25 was a direct end-result of a contagion from the US vote. A backdrop of the non-passage of the Healthcare bill that reflected negatively for the President's legislative powers over the GOP members that lacked the numbers to pass it through.

1st Quarter Strategy: USD, Equities, ETF & Foreign Currency Trading 

A Third (3rd) Perspective Angle in USD Correlation

Here are two distinct market insights for the USD Index with contrasting opinions that are well justified to back up their statements. The common denominator on both outlook is the 'uncertainty' on the new administration plans and confirmation statements to have a clearer path for priorities. Although, post election defines stimulus plans on reform with taxes, financial deregulation and infrastructure spending were the core priorities since Donald Trump's campaign and post election to his presidency.

To have a better take from our response we suggest to view / watch and click on the link before continuing our shared info.

Is the Dollar's Run Done? Why other traders say, yes.

Other than the two market views explained on the video by both resource persons; allow us to contribute a third market insight as a response that can be viewed in another perspective. Although, the Euro's parity was not directly clear it has been anticipated to be as prices have fallen closest to 1.0340 equivalent to the DXY high at 103.44 on Jan 3, 2017. This move coincides with the USDJPY at 118.61 and drifted back towards the 111.59 levels. USDJPY has maintained its stance currently at 113.00 after testing a weekly high at 114.95.

A Third (3rd) Perspective Angle in USD Correlation

Effective Arbitrage Hedge #BTCUSD vs. #USD Strategy Pays Off

This strategy has been very effective as the USD continues its decline in spite of a short-lived recovery from below 100 and back to the 101.76. And again back down retesting the 100 levels;  apparently influenced and still drifted lower as US Treasury yields did the same. The basis of the DXY then at 103.55/82 has indeed served as the primary resistance before the USD continued its decline as we defined it in our previous reference below.

With that said, this strategy provided BTCUSD an opportunity to recover back above the USD1000 after a heavy sell-off from China's crackdown on the major Bitcoin exchanges. Yet, the GBTC fund still trails behind the BTCUSD as it only represents a fraction of the actual Bitcoin prices in the market. This is just one way we measure the CORRELATION and applying the appropriate strategy in certain market conditions.

Comparative Analysis: Applied Strategy
Reference to DX Futures: https://plus.google.com/u/0/110704191161245097602/posts/G6LLdvHeKop

CLOUD CHART
DXY
https://s.tradingview.com/x/H113woZ7/
BTCUSD
https://s.tradingview.com/x/QvihgJJy/
GBTC
https://s.tradingview.com/x/V0IaOUAA/

NASDAQ Potentially to Outperform 1st quarter of 2017

Nasdaq futures have trailed both the SP500 & DOW since last quarter of 2016. Even the Russell 2000 have gotten the better move ahead of it. But finally it caught up with Tech stocks delivering the goods as we are near the closing of the first trading month of January 2017.

NASDAQ Futures As of Jan 27, 2017

Based on our recent analysis mid-way through the DOW's breaking 20k, the last major component in the mix that we had been waiting for and believe have triggered the momentum came from the alignment of the three (3)  e-mini futures when the Nasdaq 100 futures broke the 5k a week earlier that drove us to vividly expect a major move in the making. The conclusive evidence that indeed proved to be true came about after a week when the rally above the 20k materialized.

CORRELATION is a strong component for a successful trading strategy.

Declassified: NASDAQ Potentially to Outperform 1st quarter of 2017

CNBC Video Update as of March 30, 2017 supporting our market call on NASDAQ dated January 25, 2017 25, 2017 

UPDATE: As of April 01, 2017 -  Here's the final tally for the 1st quarter ending March 31, 2017 - S&P 1st quarter gains at 5%, Nasdaq gained 10% increase and the Dow poised less than a 5% gain. Hence, the NASDAQ indeed outperformed the rest of the indexes as a validation for our Market call dated Jan 25th, 2017.

Apple (#AAPL) +24%, Facebook (#FB) +23%, Priceline (#PCLN) +21%, Amazon (#AMZN) +18%,

Markets Paying Close Attention

Participants from traders, analyst and investors alike are closely focused on the new inaugurated US President as what his first week moving forward would he really be taking action. This have given the market some breathing room yet the 1st re-attempt to fuel another rally has been quite soft to the dismay of investors. The clamor for #DOW 20k have diminished despite of the come back of Oil and the decline of the #USD. That is why the ability to 'Hedge' what has been gained should be well protected or simply cashing it in for starters. Maximizing full market potential is another alternative trading decision & strategy when called upon. Using Futures market as a market preference. 

The continued weakness of the USD from the 103.56 high to its current levels near the 100 figure have given European majors and Asian currencies a breather for a price recovery which was more than welcomed particularly for CABLE, EURO & the AUSSIE Dollar. Meanwhile the USDJPY have been trading in both directions with a narrowing range from 115 -112.00 plus or minus

The first month of the year's trading is what we call a 'feeling your way' into the market as extreme 'Divergence' between Asia and US markets while the room for price re-alignment is still in the making from the start of January 2017. What it means, would be a clear range trading activity with some attempts of a continued weakness of the USD while secular forces would remain passive. Although, when volumes & momentum do pick up we'll be able to see some price action least expected. For as long as the USD remains and confined within its range we'll be more on a consolidation before any real action occurs.