PH Economy Measured by GDP to Test PSEI Resiliency

The PH market would be focused on the GDP figures by Thursday with estimates ranging from 6.4 - 6.9% by the WB. Whatever, the figures comes out from the report, price range would swing in both directions and eventually would retest a run as we expect a more decent figure above average that will show the PH resiliency on growth as these are the positive after effects that are just showing the effectiveness of the PH economy's programs implemented from the last 6-8 years .

Meanwhile, the PSEI has recovered from two recent lows at 7685 and 7724 while it made a two recent high at 7860 and 7840 from their daily trading sessions. Staying above the 7800 and slowly narrowing the trading range shows a steady price levels as market participants await the results of the GDP figures by Thursday. As this may bring about fresh incentives for the market to increase market volatility by the end of the trading week.

Divergent Asia Carry Over into Next 3 Months of 2017

The corrective move higher by the PSEI near the 6950 is merely a reflection and immediate market reaction of OIL prices recovery due to OPEC production cut.

For now any price recovery would be temporary and no significant fundamental changes on market sentiments that would end the year in a negative tone for the PH stocks & the PHP local currency. The retest back to the 8100 last July 2016 have failed to go beyond the 8136 high marked in April 2015; which lost its steam that started a declining market. It would be quite difficult to conceive a full recovery especially nearing the closing of the year.

With that said, any price recovery that would be made in both markets would only be temporary relief; while the negative sentiments would be a carry over and will be reflected at the first three months of the coming year. For now, even the technical perspective of these markets does not show any significant possibility of a price reversal in the making. 

Expect a continuing 'Divergent Trend' not only in price difference but the inclusive direction of higher prices of commodities that would further create inflationary pressure by the middle of 2017.  And a continuing depletion of FDI from the PH stock market due to the general trend on Emerging markets direction.