A Matter of Market Perspective - The Right Way

An Important Observation on Tech Chart Presentation & Analysis

As we came across with this chart, it is extremely noticeable that the diagonal line to project a US DOLLAR resistance level of exhaustion was not properly made. the same goes with the horizontal line that should have been drawn across without any obstruction. A valid line across the bars are used only to identify certain chart patterns that resembles from a valid true signal nothing more than what it is intended for. Yet, point well taken that the trading range has been established.

However, coming from a prominent technician / strategist this should be avoided. With all due respect, these publicly shared analysis carries a degree of misconception on the part of viewers who may also have a clear understanding of the market  Thus the market interpretation maybe considered ineffective to a certain degree of analysis.

NOTE: The name on the chart has been shaded to protect and not to discredit the author. But we just thought that it was deemed necessary for other viewers to be keen on their market analysis & chart lines to derived the RIGHT MARKET INTERPRESENTATION

Compare the above chart with MegaTrade101 Version which also includes the Linear Regression when applied at its current market condition appropriately well within their respective channel direction.

PRICE ACTION Analysis Defined

Insight through the Eyes of Sir Alexander @megatrade101 (Brief excerpt)

Price Action Analysis is a vital key trading discipline, interpreting a simple price chart based on the price changes in the market. The chart could either be the Asian  Candlestick bar or a Western Bar format that should have no lagging technical indicators included on it. Probably, with a few exceptions of drawing trend lines that reflects  support & resistance levels thereafter.

The simplest form of a price chart describe herein has no technical indicators on it. The consistency of a mere Candlestick Bar formation to reflect price action by itself would be considered a practical method of reading through price movement without having to develop a bias market opinion at first glance. This could be done either with the Candlesticks or the Western bar chart method of analysis.

MegaTrade101 - Process of 'Price Action Analysis'

VOLATILITY Remains on USD EUR CABLE & Crosses

Heading towards this week's FOMC rate decision, the USD steady price recovery has well been on track, especially coming from a recent 2nd higher low @95.93. The rapid pullback with the EURO post ECB was considered the catalyst of the market direction.

The currency market's behavior based on Price & Time cycle turns also remains well within its 7-14 days coverage, where the effectiveness of the Fibonacci time line have applied since the cyclical pattern was identified with a few +/- lagging turn over market sessions between the 3 time zones.

This is well in place for medium term outlook maintain overnight trade positons across the market with the European majors and Asian currencies as a risk spread strategy. Alternating price swings on the Asian currencies is reflective well with respective price action with the USDJPY pulling back @112.83 while the Aussie & the Kiwi or the NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase as of writing @0.7462; @0.6605 respectively. And the AUDNZD Cross rate still remains on the higher band price @1.1293 in Asian trading session.

PRICE ACTION & BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS - NEW HIGHS & LOWS 2

VIDEO SUPPORT ON MARKET INSIGHT
(Before & After the Fact)

Being a step ahead of the market can be fortunate especially when external forces comes on the right side of your trades. Although, it does not happen all the time!

Identify Chart Patterns: USD Market Insight 7.31.15

NFP Below Expectation - USD Resilient for now!

UPDATE: July 02, 2015

NFP missed expectations and a slight change in Unemployment have barely made the DXY decline a corrective move from a recovery with one day left to trade which priced in an overlay of the end of the week and the opening 2 days of the new month before the 4th of July celebration.. Take note that the USD price recovery has gained back what it lost which scared the "Rookies" out of the market both sides of the US and the Euro markets.

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As of July 01 Asian Trading session

The DXY have regained lost ground and rebounded back above key levels @96.00 basis point to this writing prior to up coming reports. Carefully monitoring their price net changes and range trading per session on a pull back or rebound are as equally important that we have always emphasized.

As .MegaTrade101.com by Sir Alexander who developed the system can determine the weighted percentage distribution versus the USD ahead of time with a fairly good assumption for each currency pair projected price target levels. This would likewise be the first part of the initial equation to derive its corresponding cross rate value and its projected price level moving forward.

The chart above has no technical indicators, just a simple Candlestick Chart to reflect "PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS' based on price movement and its behavior.

Q: What is the most effective application to use or measure a price change on a rebound or decline?

In a series of Q&A; we were asked this question:

Q: What is the most effective application to use or measure a price change on a rebound or decline? And how to Project a price call?

A: There are a few effective methods to approach this kind of trading scenario that we can best be applied, namely summarized as follows:

First (2) logical steps to this approach:

1. Define the market condition on the fundamental and technical stand point. Fundamental means when and how the next risk events would affect price action; while on the technical is how the trade-setup looks in its configuration. Select best time frame between the Asian, European and US Trading session.

2. Identify benchmark price levels as price point reference for the corresponding resistance and support if prices are confined within a specific range bound price movement. Or a particular chart pattern can likewise be recognize.

Click the link to find out!

The video version on Youtube: https://youtu.be/iKZnIAGKh2k

Q: What is the most effective application to use or measure a price change on a rebound or decline? And how to Project a price call?

In Search of Market Equilibrium ll

The timely fashion how the BOJ Kuroda's statements came soon after the USDJPY registered @125.50 levels was no less than impeccable market timing. Followed with RBNZ cutting its rates that led a considerable price decline for the NZ Dollar reaching a recent low @0.7009 as of this writing; had most currency analyst trying to weigh the volatility of the market increase over a short period of time difference.

The financial markets landscape on interest rates, currency rates weakness and strength, central banks monetary policy, global economy and stock market performance is  being shape and adjusted based on the current market and global conditions taking place. In search of equilibrium may take a longer time frame to achieve. For now there maybe some difficulty to see this through as each major economic power has their own agenda and the status quo of the global order is likewise now being challenged.

Relatively, the strength of the USD would remain stable as the over all reserve currency, while the rest of its currency basket would make their respective rate adjustments that would not be left behind as new financial structures for emerging economies are being opt in the equation of the current system. The general outlook for the USD is still positive with the recent report of retail sales and the expected rate increase for the year is still on track.

Hence, the outlook for  the Asian region would likewise look stronger and resilient moving forward while trying to trail the US stock market performance. With a relatively milder hiccup for the 2nd biggest economy as it slows from its previous fast-paced growth that reached a cooling period to this point in time. China's Shares have accelerated more than 50% ; where government would be able to take calculated measures to address any possible contraction while maintaining growth outlook in check at tolerable limits as well.

This just states that every trade strategies made while trading these markets would have to be made flexible to any sudden changes in market conditions. For as long as any trade positions made are within an effective net positive trading result can be achieve then and only then would one consider to stay within the course to maximize market potential or simply just cash in and wait for the next market mover.

Dow Retest A Surging Bull

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Expecting the unexpected can be as dramatic as the surge in stocks coming from several weeks of sliding prices. Technology and the Financials have provided the lift with investors following suit with the much needed volumes to push prices to its biggest one day gain which has covered some ground. A follow through id needed and staying above previous highs would be the key for a validation of directions.

Although, volumes were not considered a volume reversal that triggered a price reversal, it was enough as investors have been dragged again with some positive signals coming from Greece contrary to the IMF global growth outlook on the economy which included the US. However, it was to no surprise that the rally will move on both sides of the market as time and again made mentioned, that this would be the pattern for prices as they swing in both directions. 

Knowing the 'tolerable limits' and 'range parameters' on these price levels are excellent as the Dow continues to hold ground @17500 until now while the recent low on the Dow registered @17714 which pulled back on the day which provided the 1st signal of a probable price change. As a retest to hold above the 18000 on the Dow for the coming weeks would be a critical level. Although, this would be an encouraging sign for long tern trades held since the overall picture remains on the positive tone. 

Remember, that there will always a major correction within a major trend. All we need to do is to be able to pinpoint the pivotal price change on the next turn.

#PriceAction Analysis & #MarketBehavior : #DXY & #USDJPY

TREND-FOLLOWING THE DXY & USDJPY 

USDJPY as of May 28,2015

The information also validates our Market Call on the DXY before the fact - as of May 06 and for the USDJPY's probable direction as of May 25, 2015 - after the fact. With that said, the #DXY reflected in this chart is based on both the currency pair's "Price Action Analysis and Market Behavior, where the USDJPY have reacted real well to the strength of the USD reaching a registered high @124.28 to this writing May 28th in the Asian trading session. 

The distinct advantage of being able to first choose the next probable currency pair market mover would certainly be the key component for following the interim trend thereafter. Which in this case, the USDJPY have the upper market share; although loosing value but a real trade success for the USD. Knowing the market price probability based on the Fibonacci Theory on correction and Retracement would help a lot for purposes of projected price range. 

PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS & MARKET BEHAVIOR: DXY & USDJPY

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

Price Action Analysis: GBP USD Index & Crosses

CABLE vs. CCY Correlated Pairs: The comments made by BoE Governor Carney over the weekend was again not surprising enough as recurring news on interest rates which added some stability to the decline of the GBPUSD around its low @1.6690. And then prompted a price recovery of Cable as seen in the Asian opening sessions today. 

Price Action on Cable has been defined since touching its peak price @1.7192 and the current low @1.6690. Easy to say after the fact! Right? Although anticipating such decline were a classic setup for those who happen to be more familiar with our three (3) way swing position trade which we have posted before. This also is part of the CIPHER3 Swing strategy applied as a counter-trade against a current trend that has a stronger potential for a price reversal, but not necessarily a trend reversal. Likewise, keeping a keen unbiased trading analysis that could balance risk management over market potential and calculating market exposure is essential while trading any relative markets. Click here 

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For Current Valued Clients & Qualified Asian Investors in the Financial Markets including US Stocks, Commodity & Foreign Exchange Private Banking Level:

 A 3rd Quarter Financial Market Brief would be conducted in Manila, Phil. on 'How to Effectively Access & Take Advantage of Current Market Conditions'. This is a three (3) hour Open Financial Forum Discussion on How it would Effectively Benefit You as an Investor. 

Venue, Date and Time would be sent by invitation upon email of your interest at info@megatrade101.com

DXY Achieves its Objective for now!

As of July 31, 2014 US Dollar Index DXY

81.50 Basis Point has been marked with a high @81.57 and a low @80.98

Directional Market Insight for USDX call on July 28,2014

MT101 Trailer Guidelines Trade with Confidence

Trading FX can only best serve each individual investor depending on the analysis, market outlook and sound trading decisions by which one is satisfied with their investment results at the end of the trade. Knowing when to trade, not to trade, stop any loss and simply take a profitable trade are just some of the basic elements for a successful trade. As everyone who reads this article would say. . . " tell me something I don't already know. " As the news from any important event or report is interpreted in so many ways, that everyone knows what is going on.

Money management has all its principles and practices that needs to be followed. Trading the Foreign Exchange market has a few lessons of its own. Sharing these experiences can only help improve one's trading skills from a 30 year market veteran who has outlived several FX companies from one of the biggest commodities brokers such as Refco, Long Term Capital, MF Global  to FX Concepts in New York likewise one of the biggest Forex Hedge funds. 

Pro-Mentor On Demand at MegaTrade101.com 

Email: info@megatrade101.com

Identifying US DXY Price Reversal

Trend-following the US Dollar Index 'DXY' from its Pivotal price point and reversal formation since the week of July 01 has proven to be a classic pattern where the first signal came through and a follow-through breakout came after the prices stayed above the all important key price level @80.05 on the way higher.

Daily DXY & Weekly Comparative Overlay Chart

Likewise, the shortened trading week on the fourth of July have given the USD Index a typical symmetrical triangle formation on a technical perspective from the its previous corrective price move with a registered low @79.74 basis point figure as shown on the green-circled of a reversal three bar cluster-formation. This is over and above of the positive jobs numbers that fueled the US Dollar recovery and the rally on the Dow Jones Industrial Average & SP which is nearing the 2K mark.

However, the more important process of Cipher3 Analysis is comparing the DXY with the corresponding Futures prices with DXU14 & DXZ14.pdf (On Demand Subscription on Website) where the actual confirmation signal of a probable breakout to the upside was in the making; when the Price Reversal couple with volumes have shown on their respective charts in the attached link of a PDF file on the DX Futures.

NOTE: Monitoring the Futures DX is a sequence of process where the objectives of the prices can either be achieved in reaching their respective supports and resistances ahead of the spot DXY. In these two contract months, the registered lows both dated last 05.08.14 were @79.05 for DXU14 & @79.24 respectively. These reference points are part of the variable reference of importance.