True Price Reflection: A Classic Divergent Trend - SP500 RUT2000 DAX Vs. HSI

A clear cut 'DIVERGENT TREND' for the past (11) consecutive trading days between US Equity Indices, NK225 compared with Hang Seng Index HSI reflects the, true sentiments where prices had a bigger impact from the trade spat. Other Asian countries have followed the price action from the 2nd largest economy with the exception from those that are well ALIGNED with US POLICY. On the other hand, tactical investors & traders do know what and how to take advantage of these market conditions where a defined trend along with price action have been moving prices in similar direction. But the fact remains is how well other traders perception sees it that way or believes otherwise would take action with US equities already on record levels.

Russel 2000 small-caps and German DAX would benefit more from these market conditions as it paces major indices to another record highs. For now US investors although concerned would still back US equities at this time which can only signal who wins in this tit-for-tat but rather the fact remains US growth is on track. 

Relative Mix Market: No Conviction on Price Action Recovery

NASDAQ derives its market resiliency and overall bullish investors perception from leading tech stocks along side SP500 recent performance. Amid the heavy pressure encircling and from the effects of the 'trade war' between the US & China; US equities thus far have managed to bounce back from recent declines. 

NASDAQ

Meanwhile, the laggard DOW may again have gather enough interest to regain a foothold above 25k before any serious market sentiments builds up its momentum. As the tech angle is perceive to be stable with prices still resting at the critical support level extension from the low. However, the next attempt to break may yet to be a real surprise when it does. 

DOW Jones Industrial Average

The upcoming fourth of July holiday  celebration have come at the middle of the week's trading schedule; while the unsuspecting effects on tariffs action on the global market's would well be set by the succeeding week. As prices tend to trade otherwise, before showing its true colors.  

Mix markets would turn up as strength with US Oil prices continues upward marked above USD75.00 before turning a corrective mode during the US session at the USD73.00 levels. Gold prices trading slightly above 1250.00 have likewise pushed the USD index to retreat below the 95.00 basis point.

Btw, this also serves as a notice that +megatrade101 trading break schedule takes effect officially at the start of the 4th of July. 

Enjoy and Celebrate - Only the best for your trades! 

Equities Bullish Revival along USD Strength

Matter of Perspective: Often times Equities side with the USD Strength

The past three (3) consecutive months have been a resumption of the overall major trend for equities and particularly the USD. Often times, major sell offs or should we say substantial market correction are part of the market's way to streamline prices and make the market more efficient especially when a major trend have considerably extended its course and projections. 

Everything has to do with external factors that may and may not give a clear market direction coming from excessive market price swings that makes market participants drift towards 'uncertainty'. However, leading into June month a firm base for the USD have formed, well supported from US JOBS figure beating expectations and unemployment rate at 3.8%. 

NASDAQ As of June 15, 2018

Which simply translates that there's room for economic growth, Value in stocks would accelerate from their corrective price levels. With the US 10 year Treasury yields back below 3%; indeed all three major indices marking a market highs with the NASDAQ at 7768.60, SP500 at 2791.47 and the #DOW at 25405.50 respectively as of June 15th closing levels. 

At some point in time between the 3rd and last quarter of the year, there is a higher degree of probability that the market would accept and get used to the a higher yield along side the scheduled interest rate hikes. Exceptional times in US growth would still continue in spite of yield curve adjustments. Other analyst would disagree, the same time that they did when we mentioned the greater probability of the USD strength alongside Growth in Equities.

Where we called-out a notice last June 1st -to-7th, 2018. 

A Follow Through in all three major Indices moving forward on the 

2nd week of June would equally be nice! 

Click to continue

Matter of Perspective: Equities Bullish Revival along USD Strength

VOLATILITY Dominates With PRICE ACTION - USD Recovers

Swings in both Directions

High Frequency Trades are having a blast from the market's Volatility with Price Action in Triple digit net change couldn't get any better. The price for such a choppy market can be attributed to the volumes traded not only for individual stocks but the major indices in the futures market are quite a contributory factor for these market swings.

The versatility of professional traders and accredited investors using at least three markets at their disposal manages to get a lead on the market over the different time zones that could be accessible. Having the advantage of trading the #DOW #NASDAQ and #SP500 (GLOBEX) along side the US Dollar - DX Futures Index (ICE) and averaging with an ETF - #UUP have taken trading and investing to a higher level. Likewise these trades coincides with the NK225 and the JY futures cross traded with SPOT FX. 

The complexity of the dimension traded are done similar to how institutions and professional money managers does. With the exception that the relative figures are much bigger then in our prime, compared with what is being currently manage now. Although, the deliverables are the same since the strategies applied even on a loss are meant to cushion and maximize the market potential of profitable trades.

With that said, market misdirection's are plentiful and we could not barely count how many market movers have been made barely into the 1st quarter of 2018. Staying on top of the market with the USD at this time have lifted it nearing the 90.05 levels. And the UUP ETF at 23.56 levels

The price consolidation of the US DXY which have formed a base pattern can now re attempt its higher trajectory for as long as the DXY stays above and closes near the end of the 1st quarter of March. The first two weeks of April would be the time line that we are looking at to truly show it market potential. Otherwise we shall stand corrected if the opposite occur.  

#Dow Opens at Record, #Apple Earnings Eyed

Tactical Investors Advantage of having access to the world's biggest market where liquidity and real market sentiments prevail with prices follows through trend direction. A total world class venue for real trade investors both main street and institutional. 

#Dow Opens at Record, #Apple Earnings Eyed

 A 'Reinforced Trend Direction' on US #EQUITES & European Major #CURRENCIES

Nasdaq, S&P hit record highs as tech, health stocks rise

Overall market sentiments remains bullish for the US Equity Indices which are making record highs to this writing. #NASDAQ has been gaining back considerable ground after the corrective moves while the #SP500 and #DOW have followed suit. Although, it was Healthcare and media sectors that was taking the lead so far with Morgan Stanley

These are indeed exceptional times when secular forces have continued to dominate the market in every turning point of a correction. While taking advantage of market uncertainty from those investors reluctant enough to take any new positions at the current levels.

Nasdaq, S&P hit record highs as tech, health stocks rise

US #Equities #Futures 3rd Quarter Trading - Starts with a BANG!

The 3rd quarter just started in a positive tone with Dow Equity Futures trading in triple digit territory.  As the USD recovers from their worst 7 year low currently trading above 95.50 along side a relief recovery from Oil prices trading above the 46.00 /bbl from a low price at 42.00. And the Euroepan majors making a good run with the #Euro and #Pound registering record levels above 1.1400 and 1.3000 respectively and currently in a corrective mode..
 
Even European shares began the new quarter with convincing gains with Asian shares near their respective 2 year highs. Though, the PSE market started of its session with a contrary price decline but was able to move back into positive net change at the close of business with a +23 gain into the  closing PSEI at 7866 for the day. However, the currency front, the PHP have lost more ground trading above 50.55 USDPHP exchange rate. Thus, investors would now have to make necessary adjustments in protecting stock value from a weaker PHP.

Having the ability and accessibility to arbitrage trade positions between equities, indices, currency exposure in global markets can provide tactical investors to improve strategies using futures & options aside from the relative advantage of Exchange Traded Funds-ETF as alternative instruments to include in their respective portfolio.

For now, the market would gather enough volatility as the 4th of July celebration is around the corner. The market would focus on the following reports & data releases from ISM, NFP and FOMC Minutes, where we expect market volatility to increase this coming two weeks. Would not discount the probability to see Asia including the PSEI & European markets extend record levels as it has been lagging behind the US markets. 

Market Prices Exceptional Turns Respected!

With the market absorbing the #FED hike, we've seen that the three major indices are down at the start of the Thursday US trading by as much as a 100 points. The #DOW's low @21261 levels near its opening week's price levels (when it holds) for the session was not enough to push it further and started an initial price recovery from a corrective decline.

Which can encourage fresh re-entry for those who believe that the market is merely in a corrective phase. Watch for corrective price levels especially when the defined trend is still up. These are 'exceptional turns' where least expected both in Currencies & Equities with Secular Forces are still present.

The price range set is between the 21112 low while the high would be around the 21438 on both sides of the market direction. What is equally important is the closing price for the week and by the end of the 2nd quarter trading as the schedule of Russell rebalancing on the 23rd of June. Likewise, when triple witching hour occurs with stock options, stock index futures, and Futures options all mature at once. that translates into a market slew of price volatility.

With that said, the #NASDAQ would have to allow the Futures to align itself which has again been lagging behind. Making the market shift back for the #DOW to retake the lead with the #SP500 trailing on its tail.

MegaTrade101 Indentified A Three (3) Way Battle Between Sectors & Not Just Stocks

'Smart Tactical Investors' know when its time to make a 'Switcharoo' so to speak! As VALUATION is in play. We call this @megatrade101's version of 'Alternate Trade Strategies' as European markets tend to be less expensive than US equities. Meanwhile, some industry sectors in Asia may not be as bad still due to the strength of the USD that can be stretched further due to Foreign Exchange Rates.

Great Info On Bloomberg

+megatrade101 Identified a 'Three (3) Way Battle' between Financials, Industrial & Technology and NOT just picking the right STOCKS to trade. As Central Bank policy makers may sit this one out on the 2nd quarter of the year with the US Fed signified their stand on interest rate for 2017 year.

Meanwhile, Investors in search of a better than 3-5% Returns for the year may look for better VALUATION in Europe or even in Asia with companies that can bring these expected returns for their investment. As other stocks are quite relatively expensive heading forward.   

#DOW Marks Record Levels, But Who's Counting?

DOW JONES As of 12.07.16

US Session Update 

PRICE UPDATE: DOW @19354.45 US trading session 12.07.16

Record highs for the DOW Jones Industrial Average so far has been 18 new highs out of 22 up trading days. As most analyst have started counting the strength of the Dow Equity index as it moves closer to the end of the year 2016. The relentless climb now called as the 'Trump Rally' has had many main-street investors wonder when it would end and /or when would they have a chance to ride-on to this rally from a market correction.

With barely a few weeks into the season's holiday and the new year; it may seem to be quite impossible to reach out at this premium levels. However, is the stock market almost at the end of it's tail? is what most 'Nay Sayers' have been so outspoken then from the last three (3) shake-outs that created a cloud of market 'Uncertainty' contrary to market sentiments that we have identified since August 30th of this year.

Its not who called it first, but the fact remains that the market trend direction has been reinforced by 'secular' market forces dominantly present has to be respected! Instead of trying to call a market reversal as early as the 2nd quarter of 2016. So far it has not happened and is still making newer highs.

Link to continue

USD Pullback Action Brings Relief Recovery

With the #USD #DXY Asian retreat have proven our expectation of a similar pullback on profit taking and near closing position adjustment. The best performing two weeks rally on the USD have also priced in the Fed's move to raise rates and the positive data surrounding the US economy were dominant factors to its increase demand as oil and gold have declines from their highs from the previous weeks that led to its support.

The firm tone of the #USD will still close the month of November in a very positive tone after 13 years in triple digits currently working in Asia @100.80  basis point to this writing. Meanwhile, the rest of the USD counterparts have equally gained some relief which is due to the slight corrective move. With the #USDJPY @111.45, #EURUSD @1.0658, #GBPUSD @1.2519 #AUDUSD @0.7470 respectively. Whereas the price recovery from a beaten down currency pairs have found some relief rally from a pullback price action of the USD.

The same market scenario would be expected with global stocks particularly in the US and European markets. Although, this would be carried over for the rest of the month and opening of the year's trading as pre-dominant market investors, and participants remain positive.

Market Summary & Composition 4th Quarter 2016

On the DOW Jones Industrial Average

As #DOW trades 2x above day's close, it is CONFIRMED & VALIDATED our MARKET PRICE CALL Dated AUG 30, SEPT 30, and correlated trades on OCT 30, 2016 respectively.

1st Market Call Dated Aug 30, 2016 - Contrary to Wall Street Sentiments 

2nd Market Call Dated Sept 30, 2016 - Consolidation Pattern within Directional Trend

3rd Market & Price Call date Oct 30, 2016 - Comparative Analysis (Declassified) - #USDJPY #HEWJ #NI225 

Followed by a Sequence of trade analysis from the Rolling Trade Strategies with the USD.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just closed above 19000 for the first time, it is just 5.6% over about the past two years, ever since it pass above the 18000 mark in December 2014. Click to continue. 

HAVE A NICE & WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TO ALL!

DRIVING FORCE of the #USD & #EQUITIES Indices / ETFs

It is clear that USD strength is the main catalyst of this market which is driving the market divergence that we have been  mentioned overtime. The US Dollar index - DXY marked a high above 101.00 which is now considered an price extension for the week that would settle on the higher band of its range. And broke out above the 98.00 basis point earlier in this weekly chart.

+megatrade101 has called its fearless forecast since the end of  May 30th  that continued on towards September 08 and October 26,  until November 07, 2016. That the 4th quarter trading would be a significant market action in spite of the declines during election day that saw a quick recovery for the equities market.

DRIVING FORCE of the #USD & #EQUITIES Indices / ETFs 

On the CCY Corner / ETFs Mix
Calm After the Storm #EURO #YEN Further Weakness into #Thanksgiving Shorten #trading

@RT- VALIDATED from OCT 30 Market Call on #USDJPY, #NIKKEI_225 #HEWJ_ETF ( A Rolling Trade Strategy thru #USD Strength)

#TSOT - MT101 - Market Perspective & Insight: CCY & STOCK Indices

Alternating currency trade between the US Dollar & Yen has been a norm for investors shifting with the Yen gaining strength on #USD weakness initially breaking below the #DXY - 95.05/10 levels led the decline registering a low @94.42 basis point on the session, while the #YEN trading below the 100.00 mark & comparing it with JYZ2016 Futures contract

The FOMC minutes barely helped investor & traders set a clear direction that led to a USD dropping to its former levels. While the #EURUSD continue to take advantage by climbing back above the 1.1300 levels to this writing. And the British Pound (#CABLE) have benefited from the USD; pacing the #EURO currently @1.3065 from a low @1.2789.

Alternating Trade between the two majors & Shifting these pairs has been a market strategy applied whenever such conditions are reflected in the market place. But this has not changed our market outlook as we are merely adapting the trades with the changes as they happen.

Apparently, the incremental net changes on the DOW and SP500  Overlay continue while sustaining their respective price range within tolerable up and down swings. A lot of growing pessimism among legendary names have been calling a major correction / decline for stocks for sometime. Such legendary calls from George Soros and Paul Tudor Jones have started to double down on their bets as early as the 2nd quarter based on their SEC F13 filing of their trade positions which are at a loss at current market levels. And not suffer the same fate that John Paulson had with the #Gold market after making a killing with mortgage rates.

Now we shall see who really gets to blink first in the event that a remarkable rally would happen with the major indices still hovering at the higher band contrary to their respective market corrections. As we +megatrade101  remain on course well within the SP500 trend marking 2080 /2105 range as a valid support to hold pour stand. Strategies are in place for Options & ETFs to cover any such declines in stocks. For as long as the #NASD holds its ground above 5k we should be good to still go on course! While protective trades are in play ONLY whenever it is needed.

Variable Comparison of #DOW then and Now!

Revisiting Trade Journal on the DOW's market behavior compared with today's market direction based on a simple description of the declines as prices continue to gradually pace itself North-bound. A simple description below based on a revisit to trade journal

A simplified case of two failed attempts to follow-through with the decline, in spite of the huge negative fundamentals then from China and at the 1st quarter of 2016. Had reversed price action to a rally stirred by Brexit, yet still managed to head North as a result of the of the continued overall bull picture. Daily price swings makes room for technical adjustments and providing mix signals. Stick with the major Trend!

On the tech perspective, chart patterns & behavior more often do follow a similar version in a smaller scale that forms part of the bigger picture. This is one of idiosyncrasy made when properly observed.

Update: Soft market gears post FOMC with investors & traders balance act, as who will blink first in the next few sessions heading towards end of the week's activity.

Related link: Comparative Analysis: #USD & #DOW - Stirred Not Shaken

http://megatrade101.blogspot.com/2015/10/usd-stock-induces-stirred-not-shaken.html

http://www.megatrade101.com/index.php/home/perspective/855-comparative-analysis-2-dow-usd