Friday, September 7, 2018

USD Remains RESILIENT, 10 Year Bond at 2.942% RECOVERY

Post analysis dated Aug 22 through Sept 7, 2018 - USD Index - DXY resiliency have held well from August retest at 94.16 low. In fact, its gradual ascend in prices are quite orderly with HIGHER LOWS from the past 3 months; well above its average at 93.75. 

While closing at 95.33 basis pt. for the week as a result of favorable sentiments surrounding the markets including the Jobs data. The 10 year treasury yield have gained some ground back up at the levels of 2.942%. And the likelihood of a stable level is expected as it resumes a gradual rise heading forward with similar price adjustments on equities.


Reference Data: #DXY as of JUNE LOW 93.36, JULY 93.71 AUG 94.16 respectively 

NFP on Jobs were quite positive for the USD-DXY is currently at 95.20 in the US session. Accompanied by a weaker EURO that fell back to 1.1576, while GBPUSD once again got a lift from Brexit news trading at 1.2961. European majors price movements are more susceptible from EU policy makers that are fundamentally motivated. 


The EURUSD is an obvious mirror image of the USD Index as it has the largest weighted component share in the overall DXY index. From its low at 1.1301 to 1.1747 recovery period has completed its run and bound to resume its overall trend lower where a retest is expected. For as long as the USD continues to stay resilient heading towards the FED's rate hike, a declining pressure remains present. 

Likewise, we should be extra vigilant to watch for unexpected narratives that would derail equities redirection. But as a matter of market perspective, we should be able to adapt to the changing narratives at any given time. 

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