A Technical Perspective approach where we have defined and described in the video that the USD Index - DXY dated Aug 10th, that it is nearing the 50% range objective; from its high last January 03, 2017 at 103.82 and a February 16th, 2018 low at 88.25 basis point.
The reaction for a corrective decline have indeed been anticipated with the DXY extending its price level to high at 96.98 shown on the comparative charts below with Bloomberg USD Index. The video will show the relevance of price action to the USD price objective.
The reaction for a corrective decline have indeed been anticipated with the DXY extending its price level to high at 96.98 shown on the comparative charts below with Bloomberg USD Index. The video will show the relevance of price action to the USD price objective.
As of Aug 10, 2018 Before the Fact
VALIDATION: Indeed, the prices both on the #DXY at 96.98 extension correspondingly with the BBDXY high mark at 1196.37 have reacted accordingly from the FIBONACCI 50% retracement objective that resulted into a decline to 96.10 for the DXY and 1188.12 for the BBDXY respectively. See how just a week can make or break a trade, but in this market condition the end result were good and validated.
The effectiveness & relative importance of trading by correlation would provide an assessment that can support one with the other with a much higher probability of the analysis and price objective. Although, it is a longer process and takes time to do so, but as the end result simply justifies the due diligence made during the process. This technical approach based on 'Price Action Analysis & Narrative Principles' was well supported even from a volatile market
As of week ending Aug 17, 2018 After the Fact
US Dollar Index DXY
US Dollar Index DXY
As of week ending Aug 17, 2018 After the Fact
Bloomberg USD Index - BBDXY
Bloomberg USD Index - BBDXY
With the USD correction at 96.15 from its recent high at 96.98 last week maintaining a steady tone for now. Thus providing its counterpart a price adjustment across the board which is still a healthy sign.
ReplyDeleteConsidered as alternating market shifts for price adjustments which came about during a market sell off that we have previously referred to when markets are half-way heading into the 3rd quarter trading. More of this type of market behavior tends to be quite active as we approach each quarter ending.
Likewise, 10 year Treasuries are firm well below and is at 2.835%; providing the same lift for equities. Along side some positive expectations for US CHINA trade talks that also prompted Hong Kong HSI a triple digit relief recovery above 27400 levels; compared with the NK225 correction still at 22200 for the day.
A 2nd round of USD pressure comes from no less than Pres. Donald Trump's comments on FED rate hikes and Jerome Powell. ON the other side, Jackson Hole summit might have some refreshing news that may trigger market volatility in the near term.
ReplyDeleteFor now, the US major indices are at pace in revisiting record highs in spite of the US rate differentials between the 10 year treasury yield & 2 year notes are now at 23 basis points. After clearing through our target objectives above 25550, the following updates:
US Major Indices:
DOW at 25,842.11, up by +83.42(+0.32%)
S&P500 at 2,867.85 up by +10.80(+0.38%)
Nasdaq at 7,868.01 up by +47.00(+0.60%)
CCY Corner:
EURO at 1.151980 up by +0.000490 +0.04%
USD DXY at 95.589 down by -0.140 -0.18%
GBP/USD at 1.2866 up by +0.007(+0.55%)
USDJPY at 110.43 up by +0.395(+0.36%)
On the tech angle, the USD index correction to the US session low of 94.49 is a retest of the psychological price support after coming from a high at 96.98 last week. Pressure from another news report on Pres. Trump's legal issues has been in the newswire again.
ReplyDeleteThe market's ability to search for a reason to move lower have been coming from several directions outside of the main-stream reasons why US equities and USD continues its much extended run until now. As we weigh the issues concerned, this may prove to be another market misdirection, that would not bear any serious implications. But may also have a short term ill effects on prices are in realignment / month-end mode position adjustments. We have another week to go and pay close attention to the closing prices for the week ending Aug 24th and the 31th of the month.
The USD is gradually building up some distance from its 50% Fibonacci high at 96.98 and is currently at 93.85 low in early US session. Its weakness has been initially anticipated from a technical basis.
ReplyDeleteBut the consolidated decline have come from external forces outside of the US. In this case the GBP's strength near 1.3300 on Brexit talks and the better than expected economic data likewise from New Zealand at 0.6673 have contributed towards the USD weakness for now.
Price Update: DOW Galloping in Triple Digits
ReplyDelete#SP500 at 2,926.14 up by +18.19 (+0.63%)
#DOW at 26,632.98 up by +227.22 (+0.86%)
#NASDAQ at 8,013.78 up by +63.74 (+0.80%)
#RUSSELL at 1,712.75 up by +9.81 (+0.58%)
#DXY #USD at 94.008 down by -0.537 (-0.57%)