Wednesday, November 1, 2017

The Real Root Cause & Effect: Global QE - FED will Retain STATUS QUO

Market Driver for Stocks Record High - What Happens then when Central Banks Starts Unwinding their Balance Sheet & Interest Rates goes up?

As the saying goes, we'll cross the bridge when it gets there. For now, the #DOW have made incremental price corrections even as much as a triple digit decline at 23251. Meanwhile, the continuing discussion for the new FED chair to be announce on Thursday have kept speculation near to certainty that Powell would fill the chairmanship while Taylor may eventually be vice chair. We in turn would not join these discussion and focus mainly on price action relative to what is
expected report of Friday's NFP report.

DOW Overlay NASDAQ



Interest rates hike are again being priced in the market but the relative gains with CABLE have provided some traction of resistance for its advance. Although, its already a given fact that the outcome of the FED chair would still make the FED committee retain its status quo on rate hikes and inflation. As global central banks have dominated the financial market relatively for quite sometime when it comes with rates and monetary policies in place. A far cry from previous years where interventions were seen separately done without forward guidance then.

This is on top of other disruptions facing the market coming from Mueller's investigation that involves Russia's assumed role on the 2016 US elections. It is front and center as of late but would eventually be overshadowed once the announcement is made.

Nonetheless, the narrative increases beating earnings expectations have propelled NASDAQ to record levels at 6737.75 while the DOW is now nearing it previous high of 23485 at the current price of 23454 to this writing. Until the week's reports and data draws closer, we remain on course and stand firm as there only two months remaining for the last quarter of the year 2017. No further fresh or new stock position trades with the few exceptions of what we already have on the books including the ETFs which are well positioned for some time.

FX trades are kept well within a balanced trade positions favorable towards a USD gradual rise with a few carry trade & cross trading correlation between the CABLE, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen related trades. Thus maintaining the right liquidity level compared with equities heading towards the end of the quarter trading 2017.  

1 comment:

  1. GS drives Dow to new record highs above 23500 along side the SP500 and NASDAQ supported by Consumer confidence index at 125.9 the highest reading since October 2000. Yet again, gradually have slipped lower when a one day delay was announce for the Tax bill.

    This is how markets react on contingencies set by the Trump administration before any final news on the matter.

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