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DXY As of Aug 10, 2016
Fig. A Before the Fact
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With the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, market expectations would be limited to a few reports on US Durable Goods, FOMC minutes (Wed) and UK GDP on (Fri). Although, the market has already established a greater probability of a rate hike, this may have been priced-in from the re-pricing done from the recent rally, where the USD Index have extended its run above the 101.00 levels. The market driven by bullish USD sentiment aims the 102.20 levels but the shorten activity may try to attempt a run due to the vulnerable thin market conditions that may also derive its fuel from the up coming data.
On the tech angle of the #USD -DXY; after establishing a defined Flag pattern after the consolidation period which we have anticipated to form since August 10, 2016 ( fig. A) to be precise have finally bear fruit with a completed formation and justified with its recent move above 101.00 that penetrated the projected resistance line as of Nov. 11, 2016 (Fig. B). It's the ability to go beyond charting analysis by being able to anticipate a probable formation/s in the making or even before its completion simply based on market / price behavior.
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DXY As of Nov. 21, 2016
Fig B After the Fact
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However, the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday will also provide a thin and vulnerable market and certain price swings should not be discounted especially Wednesday and Friday's report
Meanwhile, across the currency markets, the closing prices among the major pairs have provided the calm condition and a recent price relief seen in the early Asian market's opening levels.
Related information on the USD DXY dated Sept 05, 2016 Overall Tech Perspective.
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Likewise, the flip side of the Sept 05 formation which was not completed has initially signal a bearish diamond formation well within the Flag formation. A contrary option except the price of the USD DXY was above the 95.05 and 95.50 levels respectively.
ReplyDeleteTherefore a higher degree of probability would be for prices to go to higher grounds. These are important considerations that makes up a sound trading judgement. The formation turned out to be a continuing bull diamond within the bull flag that traded past through the 98.00 basis point.
defined Angle: The transitioning effect of price action can best be reflected within the flag formation that shows the mirror image of prices leading towards the upward direction from the declining bars of the pole. Taking shape of a continuing diamond & Flag formation which signals a bullish indicator.
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Market conditions as far back as 1999 can be viewed with similarity in todays market movements. Where the USD is in line with the major stock indices that are making new highs. Now that the Russell 2000 have shown its true color we are just awaiting for one more major index that would complete the scenario and trigger a substantial market move that could really be termed as "Exceptional' trading times.
ReplyDeleteThe US market is at the midst of historical proportion as the #USD #DOW #SP500 #NASDAQ #RUSSELL 2000
are marking new highs - Exceptional Times as we draw near confirmation of Megatrade101 Market /Price Call
for the DOW between 19k-to-20k before the end of 2016. This call was made last Sept 30, 2016
https://megatrade101.blogspot.com/2016/09/consolidation-pattern-within.html
Our USD - DXY price call @102.20 was slightly off-mark which the DXY registered a high @102.05 at the end of the Thanksgiving weekend. Which maybe considered the month's high with a month's low @95.89; well above our 95.05 /50 support levels respectively.
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