Where its been & Where its heading?
The worst performing value for the PHP was recorded on April 18-19, 2004 Asian Session. And marked a high @57.50/72 which later pulled back to close 55.75. And marked as the worst devaluation of the PHP against the USD. Which began drifting thereafter.The pivotal price point recovery started @40.15 dated Jan 20, 2008. With a 2nd higher low 42.45 in Nov. 08, 2010. And repeated in March 11, 2013; which started the full run of the #USDPHP recovery. And as of today, Oct 27, 2016 is @48.55 in the Asian trading session.
When such chart and price patterns are defined there is a higher probability that a the consolidated period which broke out of its trend line resistance from its highest price level @57.50/72 can re-test another run towards the 52.38 rate level after breaching its average price of 47.25. The recent week's low @47.92 shows the resiliency of the USD strength and PHP weakness.
As prices have to continued back above the 48.50 levels but will certainly meet a few bumps along the way and never discount the probability of some price pullback to make some necessary technical price adjustments which can be viewed on a daily basis. Take note that a price pullback can't be considered a trend reversal until a new hi/lo would be established. Besides expect these moves to occur towards the month's closing and opening of the new trading month ahead.
Related Info on USD Strength by Mohamed El-Erian
The ill effects of the PHP weakness versus the USD has again being felt more than ever with the PSE indes declining nearing the 7000 benchmark CALIDATING our Market Call on a continued depreciation of the PHP. Somehow the PH Central bank may still have a few aces, although with no contigent 'fail-safe' strategy on hand from the abrupt market changes may well be a serious concern for those at the top of the helm. For now, all that they can do is to boost some plan of action to bolster the economy by way of media representations of forth coming good news being made by the current administrators in government. USDPHP to this writing is above the 48.50 handle.
ReplyDeleteBTW, this MARKET CAll on Asia being neutral to negative was documented since SEPT 08, 2016
ReplyDeleteCorrection on the typo...'VALIDATING MARKET CALL' thanks!
ReplyDeleteContinuing Sequence of Analysis #PHP weakness Continues - an Update as of Nov 04, 2016
ReplyDeleteLink: https://megatrade101.blogspot.com/2016/11/on-asian-front-line-php-continues-to.html
PH Corporate Finance survey states that they would rather manage USD-to-PHP on their Operating margins and books rather than CNY-to-PHP. This would benefit a lot more business for CPA related companies to handle corporate accounts.
ReplyDeleteOf course this only goes for companies that would be dealing with China directly. The good news is that there are more ways than one being able to do the right form of foreign exchange conversions.
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Ample Warning was Provided and shared on Megatrade101 FB / on Blogspot since Oct 26, 2016 have more value than simply stating the information.
ReplyDeleteThe resumption of the bearish market for the PSEI is current @6842.94 to this writing. For how long would retail traders act upon this conditions? For now Peso Cost averaging is NOT a strategy even to consider simply because it does not work. The divergent trend is well defined. And Protecting our PHP interest & its VALUE!
ReplyDeleteUpdate: PHP similar formation with USD on a technical perspective. Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ut37Z7fY/