The Philippine economy would follow a bumpy road ahead towards the last quarter trading of the year. Side-tracked by political uncertainties around the three branches of government; while most of the major economic reforms left behind by the previous administration is faced with less attention with a few exceptions on infrastructure relative to the massive traffic problems facing the greater Manila area.
The bleak outlook for now on stocks have shown that a dramatic game changing scenario has started to build up with some FDI started to trim down their investment exposure due to uncertainty and limited loss of market confidence that may dilute the gains made from the previous years. Besides, at these premium levels not to mention even the real estate properties held prices at such higher levels that the degree of affordability and ownership may not be sustained. Unless of course a newer direction of growth would show some evidence in domestic consumption, exports and a return of Foreign Direct Investments.(FDI)
PSEI levels at the 7500 would serve to be the support price to watch as the index is consolidating between the previous high at 8000 mark and the 7000 range for some time. And currently at the high mid range at 7720 levels. Again, stock prices are indeed at a premium, for some other analyst despite of the current uncertainty, that growth is still expected as a way of 'Market Protectionism' every time a triple digit decline is made in the global market. Here is a video as to what's driving the stock market in the Philippines.
Global rating agencies have already been monitoring developments in the Philippines in relation to their respective projections. Inasmuch as the ill effects after the elections, the end results for the 4th quarter of 2016 and succeeding 1st quarter of 2017 would reflect a much slower growth rate in the numbers report that may lead to a possible downgrade thereafter. If and whenever no changes are made and with the new administration re-focus back towards economic reforms; then a negative contagion would be expected by mid 2017.
However, this may well be overshadowed with the probable gains on OFW foreign remittances the coming holiday season. As the exchange rate of USD/PHP have also gained traction currently at PHP48.00 / USD, as of this writing in the late Asian session. On the other hand, for as long as prominent Asian, US_PH investor / traders view how to turn these projections into a positive playbook, then no matter the given market scenario these can be worked out.
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REVALIDATING #USDPHP MARKET & PRICE Call
ReplyDelete#YEN Strength VALIDATES #USDPHP Weakness...
A Trade sequence of our market call dated May 01 @47.00 which came from a follow through price call on the USDPHP pivotal price point @46.10 dated April 18-19, 2016. A total coverage of a position trade of 5 months in the making from mid-April and currently above the @48.00 PHP/USD exchange rate. And where retracements covers a full run of their respective Highs & Lows while staying Neutral to Negative for the Asian markets since Sept 9, 2016
May 01, 2016
https://megatrade101.blogspot.com/2016/05/yen-strength-validates-usdphp-weakness.html
Current USDPHP Price levels
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aWcW1vsB/
The Playbook is more between the PHP weakness rather than a USD strength. Along side the Strength of the YEN keeping the USD at bay. Likewise, a similar market behavior but not necessarily related to is the movements of the #EURO vs. #CABLE's weakness with the #EURGBP cross rate being resilient to GBPUSD weakness.
ReplyDeleteWhenever one can identify these types of market play after digesting fundamentals and still remains similar price action in spite of the uncorrelated pairs; the least common denominator would still be the USD.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON THREE CCY MAJORS
ReplyDeleteThe current market conditions on the directional trend between the #USD, #YEN & #PHP is an advantage for Overseas Filipino Workers due to the exchange rate especially at these levels with the Season's holiday is just around the corner.
Click on the links below, showing the comparation and similar price movements of the three correalted pairs.
JPYPHP
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FcqWAii8/
USDPHP
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QnMgUfa0/
After loosing a few notches lower on the Philippine economic growth forecast, the continued trajectory would leave, stall and might even be left behind in the foreseeable future. And this would be reflected by the mid-part of 2017 unless new reforms be made.
ReplyDeleteWhenever two or more conflicting information are stated about how and why PHP rates have deteriorated n assessment which of these reports are true that can be backup with actual facts. relevance makes more sense than just speculative disruption without any factual basis. Thus causing not only uncertainty but the CREDIBILITY IS IN QUESTION! Having to create more doubt than a solution would add to the disruptions.
ReplyDeleteVALIDATED Market & Price call - PSE Index breaks below the 7500 level.
ReplyDelete#USD #PHP stabilizes above 48.00 exchange rate with a previous low 47.92. Relative strength of the USD can be capitalize on against a weaker PHP. Fundamentals has not changed as much, in spite of the recent developments of future business signed between China & Philippines.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, after a recent recovery at 7721 level high for the PSE index from the 7312 low dated 10.13.16; it is back testing the lows again at the 7494. Top technical heavy signals have prevailed while it resumes into negative territory. Market behavior on both PHP & PCOM stocks are experiencing uncertainty into its direction, and in spite of the full marketing campaign to change market sentiments have obviously failed to this point.