Thursday, August 25, 2016

Short-term Trades on Trend Following #EURO

Update: EURUSD @1.1172 as of 8.30 Asia session Following Sequence of market Price Action

The interim-trend line support breaks with the help of a momentum driven USD rally from FED comment J Yellen. Technical outlook prevails through Asia session. Currently EURO @1.1172 have stayed in negative territory after failing two price points made mention @1.1380 - 1st and @1.1250 - 2nd thereafter.

Although, prices are well within our objective 3rd higher low, the finality coming from this week's reports on Consumer confidence, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment figures will be the main market drivers.  For now, monitoring the USD direction prior to these upcoming data already have taken the lead in market sentiments. So far no changes are expected until the figures hit the newswire.

Meanwhile, the Short-term Trades based on a Trend -Following sequence has been VALIDATED as a result of the "CORRECTIVE' Phase shaded in yellow below that gave the prominent idiosyncratic behavior of the EURO price action. It is the market "TIMING' in taking a trade well within its major trend that needs to be carefully monitored for the next probable turning point before it occurs. 

Reference Video: An Effective Analysis Vs. Contrarian Theory


Trading is still a number's game, so to speak, where it is often described as a zero-sum game that there are more losers than winners. Yet, a lot of so called market guru's presentation are always the same as the portrait of winnings can overshadow the risk of loss.

A clear cut example in one of the recent presentation made was riding a trend that reflects more than a thousand point move or 1000 pips in the FX market. Why it is so important, is because the wide range of the price retracement and their corresponding objectives is based on the real net changes on the closing. This is where the Moving averages and the Average True range reflected eliminates the noise (false moves) and price disruptions of the particular currency pair.

Trend Following EURO

7 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Again, 1st price reaction from Fed chair Janet Yellen proved USD fails to continue as recovery pulls back DXY and subsequently drives stocks lower for now. While EURO short-term trades in effect as end of week & month position adjustment prevails in US session; while CABLE keeping its pace.

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  3. Euro & CABLE gives way to USD price recovery again, staying above 95.05/10 levels. While another incremental price change for the DOW & SP500. Indeed, Short-term Trades on Trend following the Euro in particular pays off from the pull back towards the last week of trading activity

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  4. The corrective phase which forms a price swing pattern is well defined. Even when the mid-term trend moves in a upward direction; short trades due to wider trading range is acceptable well within the major trend until now. Failure to penetrate resistance @1.1380 provided pressure below the 1.1250 which would end the month closing below these levels.

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  5. CAUSE & EFFECT STRATS: It is NOT so much of what J Yellen said, but the failure of the #EURO to go past 1.1380 & hold above these levels. With investors shift gears to build-up USD 'momentum' that gave a lift beyond the 95.05/10.

    This price: as a benchmark have been traded back & forth as volatility prevails when orders passes through. Its the whip-saw trades that generates price action / swing at the closing US session.

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  6. Interim-Trend line support breaks with the help of a momentum driven USD rally from FED comment J Yellen. Technical outlook prevails through Asia session. Currently EURO @1.1172

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  7. That is why the "Short-term Trade within Trend-following the EURO has been identified as a "CORRECTIVE PHASE" when it marked the 1.1170 low which turned to be the PIVOTAL turning point. Of course after the fact supported by ECB decision after a USD decline below 95.05 basis point.

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