Futures Paces Market Direction for #USD #GBP over #SPOT

Cross Indication on SPOT vs. FUTURES Contracts

The market direction for the USD as reflected in the Futures market have shown a normal pace for a sustaining US for the 3rd quarter of the year's trading. This is based on the current price behavior on SPOT and the CIPHER3 Comparative levels on futures as both the September & December, 2016 contract months are at their price levels at @95.10 basis point. From the previous price decline & accompanied by a significant blow-up volume from their respective contract lows, it is clear that the price recovery have legs to sustain a rally; even without the influence from Europe. All it needs is a fresh catalyst to push it before the vote.

For now, Futures contracts would lead the target price levels ahead of Spot which would trail behind price action. Otherwise, any adverse direction leaving Spot market misaligned, can create a backward market prior to these upcoming events (ex. BPU16 priced lower over Spot). And we have not even touched the Options market indicators yet.  With that said, retail trader's uncertainty to take a bias position may take the sideline due to increase probability of additional margin requirements to trade during these expected volatility.

The initial phase for the USD can withstand a windfall by itself the way we would trade it with a cushion from three selected currency pairs which includes a single cross rate. The single currency likewise would hold a limited downside risk compared with Cable's susceptible price range that can go in either direction prior to the UK referendum. Speculative shorts would remain a larger bias on CABLE in spite of an almost even survey with BREXIT gaining a slight advantage over those who favor to remain with the EU.