Weighing Fund vs. Tech

Fundamental:

As volatility continues to increase speculative trades has been much lesser due to the wider trading ranges of the majors. This is equally true to the back & forth resolutions and market activity in the Euro Zone with Politics playing a greater role in determining the direction for the Euro. Meanwhile, the relief rally on the stocks have been seen with some reluctance from investors as the net change of the economy has not been that convincing. In spite of the USD recovery, a slow yet gradual momentum is still building for that much awaited USD rally from the past week that has led the Euro and the British Pound to move lower.

Although, a slight recovery is being made from the opening of the week's trading, the main focus would be the EU debt crisis weighing in on the market. Since the economic calendar for the US is fairly thin except for the existing home sales data expected. The upcoming June 23-24th meeting of EU leaders is being monitored well, as everyone is transfixed with Greece and their vote of confidence would help and ripple through the financial markets.

Technical:

Analysis back from the previous COT as released by the CFTC last June 14th; commercials were more prominent players in the market than that of speculative transactions and non-commercial participants. That is the very reason such volatility has been present were such position adjustments are made transforming a wider transition of prices from the previous highs of the European currencies and the lower US Dollar that led to the rapid recovery as seen from last week's movement. Keeping pace with commercials with speculative trades would be more risky as retail investors and traders would not have access to these information only after the release of the COT at the end of each trading week. The Volumes and Open Interest in the futures market would be a substitute although would not be able to replace the COT as it has more vital data/information to see. As almost all technical indicators are lagging behind and such confirmation remains after the fact or the market prices has moved.

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