Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Weighing Fundamental Vs. Technical

Every trader and analyst gets a kick in anticipating where a pivotal point, trend or price reversal may take place. To a certain point that it is anticipated too early or too late. There are many technical tools that could be use as references to predict such reversal. Although, the most common is from a candlestick formation or a reversal bar, convergence/divergence of a moving average, a breakout from a channel and or a resistance/support prices.
With all these tools; it really depends on the traders choice which is most reliable and dependable where they are most comfortable with. To balance technical analysis and fundamentals may be approached in several ways. However, the current market conditions that the market is experiencing now from several months have weighed more in line with fundamentals rather than the technical. Only the formation after the fact would justify supporting any reports either derived from the economic reports or any politically motivated policies affecting the exchange rate.
The psychological fear factor of long running trend reaching an assumed bottom making the EURUSD just as an example or even the GBPUSD has been a battle for traders and analysts whether to call " nearing a bottom price " or vise verse. Each major pair has their own characteristics and intricacies of behavioral price formations based on historical configurations. Making it a " No one size fits all " as the correlations of exchange rates needs to be considered in the equation. for the time being, trend following strategies are best suited in any trading activity until such time a real occurrence of a reversal could be identified. One of the best guide to follow is the simple rule of reversal pattern which is ; ..." until a new high or bottom has been established it can not be called a reversal is in the making. "
The irony of the matter, is that every one's eagerness to be the first one to call it as " bragging rights " is what makes the difference between a trader and a strategist who has been in the market place for quite sometime. A word of advise : " Do not be an eager beaver in the market place. "
Pls. choose wisely!

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