Thursday, June 30, 2016

Strategic ARBITRAGE TRADE - Index & ETF


#TOP STRATEGIES ON TRADE: The chart below consist of a combined investment instruments composing the EPHE - iShares of the MSCI Philippines ETF, listed at the NYSE. Arca in New York, US and managed by BlackRock. The iShares MSCI Philippines ETF, with the symbol as EPHE - seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Philippine equities (PSEI). These are just some trade ideas and strategies executed that can be considered as 'value trades turned into position trade investments.'

The level of liquidity, volume and transparency in market price information are made available during current market conditions. Not to mention, the USD investment value through the exchange rate that it brings forward for Asian & other tactical investors who has international exposure in the financial markets for that matter is very important for global accessibility. The composition of the ETF are the top 10 Philippine companies listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange. The chart also includes the price equivalent of the PSE Index corresponding with the Price of the EPHE  View link for Details.

#TSOT - Arbitrage Trade Strategy

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

3rd Quarter - A Clean Slate for the Financial Market

The effects of BREXIT had been more on the financial currency markets directly; as the DOW & SP500 did had their fair share of declines.  The overall end-result of which has not been as bad as some analyst have expected, since the stock market price recovery were seen quite modest across global stocks to this writing.

The DOW's recovery above the 17500 and the SP500 back to the same levels around 2070, have been a good sign that the repercussions of the UK vote only provided the US market a quick slap on the wrist, so to speak. The recent declines in the US stocks have been mild; in spite of making a 17000 low have held well. For as long as the current price recovery stays above these 17000 - 17500 range and closes well above the 17800 levels, should be quite encouraging. The near term  would give the market a clean slate at the start of the 3rd quarter of 2016.

The presence of volatility where price swings goes in both directions clearly reflects the TUG of WAR between bull & bear players. Megatrade101 remain stead-fast in staying the course for equities to gradually buildup into positive territory the next quarter trading of the year. Price draw down have been limited well within their respective wide range and well protected against any sudden market changes.

We'll provide further market outlook and trend insights on the financial markets moving forward the first few weeks of trading 3rd quarter. As we take our regular 'trading break schedule' each quarter ending period. Have a great trading ahead and Only the best for your trades!

Monday, June 27, 2016

#TSOT - Reinforce a Defensive / Contrarian Strategy for #CABLE (Declassified)

CABLE SEQUENCE OF TRADES
Cable's prevailing bearish channel dominates the overall trend direction. However, interim price recovery would be in the making as the expanded time cycle would be followed.

The overlay perspective of the chart provides a bearish outlook which is fundamentally motivated due to the forthcoming UK referendum on #BREXIT. While contrary price volatility in the interim reflects a tug of war between bull and bear players battle for positioning.

CIPHER3 analysis (Tier 3) dated June 14, 2016 with at least five technical references were applied with this approach along with our fearless forecast for a 'Defensive /Contrarian' CABLE Playbook. Period covered from 5.11 to 6.14.16 heading towards UK refernedum results.

Declassified Link: #TSOT - CABLE (GBPUSD) STRATEGY

                                A Contrarian Market Approach For CABLE 

                                Top Strategies On Trade - CABLE Insight 5.11.16



Saturday, June 25, 2016

#YEN #USD Strength in VALUE ALIGN

The aftermath of the UK vote was the catalyst that provided a strong rally for the #YEN to gain more VALUE for the buck as it did broke and marked a 98.82 USDJPY low before making a slight end of the week price recovery. This has justified our sequence of trades based on Value. As the YEN strength in Value runs in sync with JYU 2016 futures target objective @0.01013 high and knowing when a disconnect will occur thereafter makes a huge difference.

While the indirect correlation of cross trading CABLE & YEN would be more pronounced as the GBPJPY base cross rate is more affected with CABLE / USD price action that gave DXY the relative strength from a CABLE weakness and not necessarily a USDJPY rally. In this exceptional case where the YEN has been a secondary safe haven for JPN225 declines making new lows have been also provided the Hedge strategy for Asian interbank investors alike. MegaTrade101 shall provide a separate insight regarding this cross trade strategy in our next info. 

https://twitter.com/MegaTrade101/status/746616172070608896

Thursday, June 23, 2016

#TSOT - POST BREXIT - #USD Shifts HIGHER

Expecting a market shift as mentioned in our ' Contrarian Market Approach for #CABLE', and after all is said; the USD recovery @94.80 and a huge price swing for the GBPUSD  @1.4000 was seen in the Asian session. CABLE's 1.4880/90 tech level from a 1.5017 high; was in line with fundamental reports which gave way for the price swing which covers the wide range from its HI/LO. This is closer to a 1000+ wide pip range. And the probability of a closing price across the European majors & the DXY would be within the mid-range of the ATR for the week.


"When CABLE does move higher, watch the price levels @1.4880/90 that may find some price session pullbacks. As the end of the week and 2nd quarter trading may still add volatility in both directions for position adjustments."
...excerpt - Contrarian Market Approach for CABLE.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

#TSOT - CONTRARIAN Market Approach for #CABLE


GBPUSD Price Update: @1.4880 as of 6.23.16 early European session

As we recall, far back as the day on September 16, 1992 termed the Black Wednesday; when the British Conservative government withdrew the Pound Sterling from the European Rate Mechanism led by John Majors. Which then proves to be the right and well calculated decision. Although, the end-result was a huge drop of the GBPUSD in a single weeks move thereafter coming from a 2.1080 high.

In comparison from the low prices of CABLE today, the current price levels for the GBPUSD to sustain its initial strength slightly favoring the 'Remain' camp with intra-day corrective moves between its average true range and the HI/LO band will really depend on the actual vote which is too close for comfort.

Click here:
CONTRARIAN Market Approach for CABLE

Monday, June 20, 2016

#TSOT - Opening Trade & Price Gap Question:

Placing Fundamentals on the sideline.
Is this a 'RUN AWAY GAP' or an 'ISLAND REVERSAL' signal ?


Comments & thoughts would be appreciated!

CORRELATED TRADES - MT101's PLAYBOOK

The market's ever-changing reactions on the BREXIT & BREMAIN have been expected  as it draws closer to the day of reckoning. Build-up of speculative positions would surely add more towards market volatility until post referendum takes center stage. The outcome of an exit would allow CABLE to continue its prevailing trend direction while the obvious price action in favor to remain with the EU already reflected how the market have already priced it in. Ironically, the momentum for prices to sustain have somehow lost steam during the course, as traders play book for safety kicks in.

MegaTrade101's position play with this market has been set for a medium to long term strategy for the EURO & CABLE. The price range from their respective Highs & Lows are marked for "Tolerance Levels'. Near term would be positioned Neutral to Bear with Pivot Price Points for intermediate price swings for both swing & counter-swing trades deem necessary post vote outcome. While the European crosses, USD, and JPY related pairs would be used whenever called for. This is well within the next few days towards the end of the 2nd quarter trading as well. 

Focus on USD, EURO, CABLE, YEN for FX. Including DOW, SP500 & JPN225  Equity Indices

#TSOT - A Defensive "Play-Book" will be the Smartest Way for Making the Right Trading Decisions! Great Move for Hedging before BREXIT!

#USD #BREXIT Best Strategies for Volatility

For Sophisticated Investors / Traders:

Expectation of higher VOLATILITY in a fundamentally motivated market is already a given.

However it may be, what is significantly important is how would investors and traders prepare or position the trades for these type of market risks before and after the fact. Sophisticated Tactical investors who are well positioned before these event risk takes place have already weigh and be willing to assume the probabilities of any adverse price swings the market will make. As such certain price parameters including strategies are ready to be applied whenever called for. This includes immediate price reactions across the board on all correlated currency pairs including Crosses with CABLE, EURO, YEN and the US Dollar for the interim week ahead.

Click here to continue: Expectation of higher VOLATILITY

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Alternating HI/LO Shifts #EURO #CABLE #YEN

On USD Direction:

The market price action post negative CPI data, has given the USD and its counterparts an intra-day price pullback from their respective HI/LO levels. As the movements were made between
Wednesday & Thursday with the USDJPY (BOJ) gaining momentum on its strength in the Asian trading session. While making a short comeback price & pullback from a disappointing CPI data; leaving a USD retreat at the closing of the week's trading.

Similar actions took place with both the EURO & CABLE that resulted with a breather of short-profit taking during the earlier trading session in Asia market. These are the three major pairs that has been shifting price action relative to the surrounding fundamentals influencing the market. As both buy / sell sides can literally take advantage of these price swings in either direction, swing traders alike are having a field day relative to broker's transaction revenues running high with this kind of market volatility. Caution is advise nearing major event risk, as probable increase on margins can be called upon with the expected volatility.

Alternating HI/LO Shifts #EURO #CABLE #YEN

Friday, June 17, 2016

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

YEN GAINS IN ASIAN TRADING SESSION

Reference to May 07, 2016 Market Call / price projection nearing a probable breaking range.
RT USDJPY MARKS NEW LOW AT 104.58 affirming projected decline from reference chart below.

UPDATE: USDJPY AT 103.60 LOW as of writing



Futures Paces Market Direction for #USD #GBP over #SPOT

Cross Indication on SPOT vs. FUTURES Contracts

The market direction for the USD as reflected in the Futures market have shown a normal pace for a sustaining US for the 3rd quarter of the year's trading. This is based on the current price behavior on SPOT and the CIPHER3 Comparative levels on futures as both the September & December, 2016 contract months are at their price levels at @95.10 basis point. From the previous price decline & accompanied by a significant blow-up volume from their respective contract lows, it is clear that the price recovery have legs to sustain a rally; even without the influence from Europe. All it needs is a fresh catalyst to push it before the vote.

For now, Futures contracts would lead the target price levels ahead of Spot which would trail behind price action. Otherwise, any adverse direction leaving Spot market misaligned, can create a backward market prior to these upcoming events (ex. BPU16 priced lower over Spot). And we have not even touched the Options market indicators yet.  With that said, retail trader's uncertainty to take a bias position may take the sideline due to increase probability of additional margin requirements to trade during these expected volatility.

The initial phase for the USD can withstand a windfall by itself the way we would trade it with a cushion from three selected currency pairs which includes a single cross rate. The single currency likewise would hold a limited downside risk compared with Cable's susceptible price range that can go in either direction prior to the UK referendum. Speculative shorts would remain a larger bias on CABLE in spite of an almost even survey with BREXIT gaining a slight advantage over those who favor to remain with the EU.

Monday, June 13, 2016

Insight: Global Speculators & Institutional Funds Portfolio at Risk

The expected volatility would weigh heavy on CABLE & EURO; not withstanding what the JP YEN has been doing lately as it gains strength prior to event risk. There has been a lot of spread betting in the currency markets nowadays especially with the obvious bias of most traders bearish on the British Pound with a recent low @1.4115 while pulling back to its current levels @1.4199 to this writing.

The analogy of these price levels with both the EURO @1.1293 well below the 1.1380 and CABLE's present levels @1.4199 well below the 1.4380 resistance, would be traded with a bearish bias before the main events this coming weeks. Retail speculators may well be advised not to engage in such expected volatility unless they are willing to risk in exchange for a decent gain where prices can whipsaw in both direction simply because of a wider trading range. Buy & Sell positions relatively can make money only with exceptional timing entry / exit strategies in place. The likes of utilizing the Euro & Pound related Cross rates along spot would be a great combination. However, there are no real guarantees of any sure fire wins. This is were speculative moves are made prior to events and post trades are mere confirmation when a lot of contracts change hands on the spot.

Institutional funds presently holding cash & blocks of open contracts in options should be considered for hedging purposes which is currently being adjusted heading towards the next trading days / weeks ahead. Leverage trades would only be a fraction of institution's portfolio, but would outweigh commercials  and retail speculators post any event risk announcements. It is advised to monitor VOI and options positioning. A smart playbook with a combination of Spot Majors / Cross Rates, Futures & Options will be quite useful instead of simply trading naked in the market.

Saturday, June 11, 2016

#TSOT #DXY #DOW #SPY

#TSOT - Weeding-out the Bears from the Market

NOT JUST FOREX:
Chart Overlay #DXY #DOW #SPY
This has been MegaTrade101's stance since Equity Indices such as the SP500 & DOW came from their lows twice in a row from their wide trading range. Both SP500 & DJIA are slightly above their respective prices at the beginning of the year have provided a bright yet unconfirmed directional move as of today's price levels.

The bulls trap is still in place from secular forces that we believe will be sustained after this months closing. However, a gradual unconvincing rally could occur, it just depends on the kind of market outlook that an investor would tend to take a stand on. That is why we have previously stated that "TRUST, CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION" would be the key components to today's exceptional trading environment since the landscape of trading activities has changed primarily due to Central banks monetary policies in the three major markets

Where #Fundamentals #Technicals Dictates Price Direction

The recent UK negative reports have sent #CABLE declining back towards the 1.4180 session low in the US session last Friday as a result of a price recovery for the #USD index @94.85 from the Jobs data that sent it down @93.42 low. The wide trading range as we made mention, as been the norm where price swings back and forth in both directions has been maintained.

Stretching towards the next couple of weeks ahead, both #FED and #UK_BREXIT will provide the increase in volatility. This will prove to be in part of the end of the 2nd quarter trading that would pave the way towards the opening of the 3rd quarter which likewise provide a glimpse of the true direction. As of CABLE, expectations of a +/-9% -to- +/-35% price swings are well within its wider range in the next two weeks to follow.

Although, MegaTrade101's primary outlook remains neutral to bearish for CABLE, the strategy for these event risks would be played along with Futures &  using Options as an indicator for Spot #GBPUSD; in sync with the US Dollar Index securely positioned from its previous low as a buffer for any adverse price action. With the rest of the portfolio would weigh heavy towards equity indices with the #SP500 more favored than the rest.

In essence, a three-currency play + one  both in #Spot, #Futures, #Options & #ETFs markets would be applied as a strategic plan of action in dealing with these risk events heading towards the end of the 2nd quarter. The advantage of knowing how to play the financial markets not only with Spot; with Futures & Options provides a distinct edge in spreading risk while netting a probable positive result only when done right and executed with the utmost market timing.

The market behavior and price action would be well monitored next week as it would provide a glimpse of the prelude sentiments in the market place before the start of the new quarter trading. We do hope that these market insight would be beneficial for other traders moving forward.

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Cross Trading SPOT & FUTURES as an Alternative Strategy

The US NFP figures was the main catalyst for the currency market's volatility that led a substantial price recovery for #CABLE, #EURO and the Japanese #YEN. As mentioned, the 'healthy' declines were a preemptive signal that there was something the market place were brewing heading towards the JOBS data last Friday.

Understanding the practical way of 'Cross Trading' SPOT & FUTURES may well be an alternate strategy that needs to have a deeper analysis for a tactical investor / trader. Although, the JOBS figure were a fundamental in nature, the price swing on CABLE were quite encouraging as it marked a high @1.4580 with a  pullback again @1.4370 seen at the Monday Asian session. The similarity of price movements across the board is expected after a dramatic price swing after the Labor department's surprise data.

With that said, the spread between alternating US Dollar Futures contracts shows the resiliency of #DXU16 (Jun) compared with #DXZ16 (Dec) as a spread that  range led the market into a decline, as the FED's June hikes would be pushed out towards July. Uncertainty has again prevailed, as the market awaits for FED Chair Janet Yellen comments this week.

Meanwhile, the SP500 remains at the higher band of the range with the  #SPY also remained steady. The obvious higher volumes last Friday would serve as the initial support for a price recovery with the position adjustments derived from the rapid post NFP price decline that led the European majors to simply react from such rapid action.

Remaining EURO & CABLE Short-positions caught at the low band of the previous decline had to struggle ahead of the USD decline which has been led by them rather than a USD related move. This can be seen with the figures in the COT Volume & Open Interest report post NFP #'s. However, it still remains that price swings would be confined within a wide trading range for the coming days leading towards Janet Yellen. 

Friday, June 3, 2016

NOT JUST FOREX: #USD #SPY #DXU16 #GBPUSD Reflects Resiliency

CABLE AS OF 6.03.16
With the miss on JOBS data despite a 4.7 unemployment rate; the USD has held with very minor corrective session moves. Unlike the volatility seen in the currency market, where the relative strength of the #YEN, #CABLE & the #EURO have seen a very good price coming back from behind its healthy declines

With CABLE rising back towards the 1.4580 levels, EURO @1.1340 and the Japanese Yen's gaining strength back towards the 106.80 have been a good price swing that had obviously caught some traders off-balance due to a disappointing report coming from the US labor department.

The resiliency of the SP500 shows that the probability of a June hike may push the FED for a July rate hike which should not be discounted by the market. Thus the ability for investors to see this in a positive outlook could be an encouraging sign. Yet again, the market's uncertainty still prevails with investors weary of the rate hike in spite of a mix report.

Therefore, Price Swings and relative market behavior will again take much of the trader's real market outlook more than ever. This consolidation of a wide range bound trading would until a true market conviction and price break would occur. 

ONLY ONE CHOICE TO MAKE.. The Steam or the Flow?

Or be smart & wait when the market moves and say...we knew that would happen!

The Market Pot's Brewing! Will you position with the steam or flow with the spill? #SP500 may take its lid off but not without a fight! As secular bulls are just waiting to pounce on every probability that momentum builds as market volatility increase from any positive event risk.

No spoilers here can be seen so far ahead! Waiting for the jobs data which would direct the flow of prices towards the end of the week's trading and a glimpse of what's expected thereafter.
https://twitter.com/MegaTrade101/status/738645518360793088