Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Continuing Price Reaction on Yellen Dovish Remarks

AUDUSD
The early European opening after the Asian session has provided a continuation of USD slide from FED Chairperson J Yellen remarks and likewise supported a lift for the European majors.
@Megatrade101, we remain on course with our trade strategies on place with the AUDUSD conversion & leveraged position of the AUDCNH cross rate into the opening of the 2nd quarter trading as a carry over trades.

As of this writing, AUSSIE has made a new session high @0.7700 along with the crosses and the USD Index @94.80 session low.

These positions would now serve as a near -to- medium term positioning, while counting the linear cycle it would provide depending on their price movement and behavior. The end of the quarter is at hand while taking our trading break, still keeping an eye on the market for any sudden changes that may occur unexpectedly. 

Reference: Trend following the Top Heavy USD Comparative chart pattern.
Market Call dated March 07  CCY Corner: AUD EUR CNH & Crosses

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

Sunday, March 27, 2016

WIDE RANGE Bound Price Swing REAL DEAL

Has anyone missed the ride? The Dow Jones and the SP500 has turned into positive territory for now, yet sustaining the up move needs more than meets the eye. It can only get better in time. Especially when prices aligned on the decline. Positioning then justifies the positive end-result after it is said and done. It does payoff when a trade position becomes a smart move for value investing.

Link: Insight: Wide Range Bound Price Swing REAL DEAL 





Saturday, March 26, 2016

A Warm Happy Easter Greetings to All.

May the 'Easter Bunny Eggs' gathered in the investment portfolio bring forth only the 'Best Diversified Trade Results' into the 2nd quarter trading of 2016 and beyond.

This is where a diversified investment strategy is develop to have a 'Solid Asset Class Investment Growth' while liquidity for tactical strategies could be applied for correlated trade setups that has the highest probable market potential.


Keeping a Keen Eye on the Market!

A DIVERSIFIED NEST EGG & LIQUIDITY PORTFOLIO

Monday, March 21, 2016

In Observance of Tradition

It's that time of the year where @Megatrade101 - shall be observing the Holy Week for reflections, besides the shortened trading week on Good Friday holiday. Be cautious with the thinly traded market where price swings can be made in both direction before and after trading holiday schedules. 

As the start of the trading year last January 2016 through the middle of February have given us a fair share of the market's volatility. This would give us a valid reason to be able to continue the interrupted trading break that we normally take every end of each quarter of the year.

Enjoy your holiday schedule and will be back soon thereafter. Thank you and Cheers!

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES! ... Sir Alexander

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Raising the Bar of Trading Confidence

'Trading Confidence' is much like the market itself. As the market prices do change more often, so does investors and traders sentiments trading outlook. The same way that prices quoted on the board & onscreen are truly a reflection of what's behind these price movement.

And appropriately defined as a reaction or simply as the reflection of a fundamental oriented market where external factors are influencing price fluctuation. This is just one of many factors that can affect changes in the market place.

Excerpt: Part 1 of 7 Series
(Not Hanging-on a Thread)

Often times during our session meetings both on sight and online; have been asked the question 'How do traders gain the 'Trading Confidence level' in the market. Some traders we've been fortunate enough to get acquainted with over the years; the answers really comes in so many variations. Likewise, here are just some of those information that we like to share.

Major reports normally have a scheduled release date. With most analyst and traders call 'Event Risk'. And when due dates for important data are to be release, expect prices to move in anticipation of the data and right after; either as a direct or indirect end-result from the released data. And most often are interpreted to be bearish or bullish that affects the market prices.

With that said, one of the most basic way of being able to level-up trading confidence is to have a certain process of due diligence on the instruments that the trader / investor intends to engage with. Including all aspects and probable angles deemed necessary to define if its well worth taking the investment risk for. This is where 'Trading becomes a Medium for Investments'. Tactical investors who makes time to actively participate in this process would have the necessary information at hand to firmly make an informed decision.

RAISING the BAR of TRADING CONFIDENCE



Saturday, March 19, 2016

Revisitng: A Matter of Perspective Analysis ll

Here are three (3) correlated market information that may be quite useful to go back through as a matter of market perspective that can best serve as a reference. The market's ability to move counter-trend market reports is respected similar to the price action that transpired with the Euro that gained its strength coming well from market sentiments while pushing prices above the 1.1340 last week.

However, note that prices came from a double low @1.0822 post ECB and made a crucial turn to its current price @1.1265 close for the week ending 3.18.2016. The higher low marked @1.1057 was way even lower than the opening price for the week but was still able to hurdle the price that led to an increase in volume that also gave fresh incentives for prices to retest nearest to the resistance level of 1.1380 which also serves as the 1st line of defense.

For as long as the USD - DXY stays below the 95.05 mark; the relative price action of the European majors is well on its way higher; unless an unexpected report would say otherwise.

With that said, the USD already had spilled its sentiments on the USDJPY nearest to the 110.55 by making a low @110.65 which is just about the same price spread that it already did. These levels are bound to take a price reversal not necessarily a trend reversal as newer lows and highs needs to be established. And this goes well with the DOW and the SP500 with the exception of the JPN225 which is a clear downward trajectory for now.

These topics are quite useful to apply as it does relate how market would react post a major move and market volatility. Not necessarily in their respective order.

How to measure a price change on a rebound or decline

A Matter of Perspective ll

Aftermath of a Market Volatility



Thursday, March 17, 2016

‪#‎USD‬ Weakness Lifts ‪#‎PHP‬ Value in Asia Trading Session

An important information to share for all our OFW saving, investing and passionately working hard for their respective loved ones. It's good to know when and how to stretch the value equivalent with the exchange rates for your investments in PHP. The USD weakness likewise would be good for EURO, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, STERLING POUND & JAPANESE YEN earners that can see a considerable strength in their corresponding exchange rate transactions.

Though on the contrary the USD weakness for PH exporters with USD receivables would be unhappy as the value of their forward sales have lost value in exchange rate letters of credit upon confirmation. Loosing more value moving forward barely with little or o interest compared with the value of even the AUSSIE Dollar smaller in value yet carries a higher interest rate compared with the USD denominated Dollar deposit & exchange rate. Learning to hedge even on a smaller scale can still carry a substantial change in the long haul.

On a side note, the local PH scene the recent Anti Money Laundering Scandal had an indirect effect and probable consequence which already have flooded the market to avoid further exchange rate differential that may disrupt the trust in the banking industry. Although, such amount compared with the improve GDP is barely a fraction of the cost.

The weakness of the USD have spilled over into Asia providing renewed strength for the Philippine Peso at the current levels @46.36 equivalent to the USD exchange rate. Some weakness for the USD is still technically top heavy as the continued weakness continues to prevail in the market place with investors sentiments ten to be mix from the recent US data with stocks having some difficulty moving above or near the 17850 levels on the DOW JONES.

#USD Chart Formation Comparative Analysis

TECH Angle: #FIBONACCI  #GARTLEY Configuration  Premium Plus:

USD Breaking @95.05 Confirms the chart configuration identified since Dec. 16, 2015 in Fig. B" expanded chart compared with the current chart formation as of 3.17.16 reflected in Fig. A shown below applying the Tools of the Trade with the FIBO SR Fan as compared with the GARTLEY CHART PATTERN & formation. This now Validates our market call. 

Current Price Action As of 3.17.16 Fig. A


Expanded Version As of Dec 16, 2015 Fig. B


USD Continues Decline Spill over Across the Board

Early European session have pushed the USD index below the benchmark support @95.05 and have reached a new session low @94.68 as of this writing. As of March 04, 2016 our market insight have indicated a probable low that was briefly described as follows:

MARKET REWIND FOR USD INDEX AS OF 3.04.16
Although, the session prices with the USD reacted positively the overall strength have fizzled out and lost steam as the new month may prove to be a top heavy for such a price recovery without the real momentum in spite of the good data from the NFP. Meanwhile, the strength of the Aussie Dollar have reached above the 0.7400 levels which have validated our trade call from our previous post analysis below which happens to be an effective trade analysis well in place that may probably make a follow-through by the coming week.


UPDATE: DXY @94.68 LOW AS OF 3.17.16
The continuing decline of the USD is in line with the USDJPY reaching a low @110.68 which resulted to the spill over effects and price action with the European majors. Adding to the recent price recovery are Oil & Gold likewise resuming their upward direction which have placed a serious cap on the USD. With a weaker USD, this would provide further lift for commodities as well and included here is the AUSSIE Dollar being a commodity related currency that has proven to be on the same trajectory moving higher currently trading @0.7605 with a high price @0.7650 in early US trading session. Thus, turning trade positions into a Value Investing Strategy. However, playing it with caution; watch for session pullbacks by Friday being the end of the week's trading towards the closing session.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

MT101 The Business of Making the Right Trading Decision 1



The proper guidance from a real professional authority who would guide each participant the working knowledge and the methodology in applying the appropriate tools of the trade. While making certain that all probable strategies applicable for certain market conditions would be made accessible for timely execution whenever the need arises. Especially, during exceptional times such as the presence of increase market volatility. 

Let the market pick up the slack for MegaTrade101 Client / Investors training; while building trading confidence & consistently timing trade execution accurately more often than not. And drive with the market from 'Park Bench to Park Avenue'.

VOLATILITY Remains on USD EUR CABLE & Crosses

Heading towards this week's FOMC rate decision, the USD steady price recovery has well been on track, especially coming from a recent 2nd higher low @95.93. The rapid pullback with the EURO post ECB was considered the catalyst of the market direction.

The currency market's behavior based on Price & Time cycle turns also remains well within its 7-14 days coverage, where the effectiveness of the Fibonacci time line have applied since the cyclical pattern was identified with a few +/- lagging turn over market sessions between the 3 time zones.

This is well in place for medium term outlook maintain overnight trade positons across the market with the European majors and Asian currencies as a risk spread strategy. Alternating price swings on the Asian currencies is reflective well with respective price action with the USDJPY pulling back @112.83 while the Aussie & the Kiwi or the NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase as of writing @0.7462; @0.6605 respectively. And the AUDNZD Cross rate still remains on the higher band price @1.1293 in Asian trading session.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Recognize Market Behavior Relative to Price Action

Supplemental Market Brief POST ECB on EURO...
Confirmation from COT Report

At the time of actual rapid price action, recognizing the market's behavior relative to price action was a critical time. Since most speculative Euro traders were already well positioned on the short side of the market. And eventually reloaded upon learning what the ECB had decided to do. That led the decline of the EURUSD back to the 1.0860 levels and made a sudden turn-around thereafter until the closing of the week ending the 11th of March 2016.

Sure enough the volumes supporting the rapid price change that led the upsurge was substantial, 892K contracts. And this was 2X the open interest that ended the session with just about 436K +/-. Open Interest were 4392 contracts by speculative day traders mostly coming from the retail, non-commercial markets.

And base on the CFTC - Commitment of Traders Report - better known as the COT report that was just released late afternoon. Indeed the speculative shorts were in the area of 91.3K as of the closing date of Tuesday March 9. That already provided some glimpse that the market positions were in fact over loaded. This alone was that confirmation before the data where the principle of selling the rumor and buying the fact still plays a role in the old school of trading combined with new technology-driven base trading does matter with these volatile markets.

Knowing when a speculative outlook turns into a smart trade position for value investing is indeed a edge over the market. Utilizing the important information and data on Volumes and  Open Interest in Spot, Futures and Options markets can only help derive a favorable investors with the right trading decision most of the time. 

Therefore, recognizing the rally was certainly a market short-squeeze for speculative traders which we do not encourage especially for new retail day traders that would simply get stop-out of the market without a reasonable fight. This is were unnecessary losses can be avoided. Due diligence is always good as it pays to walk the extra mile!

Sequence of Trade Strategies 2

Original Trade Position 1

Thursday, March 10, 2016

PRICE Action - USD RETREATS from HIGHS

The rapid action takes precedent where the USD - DXY have retreated from its highs post ECB triple rate cut. Similar price action can be attributed from the single currency that took most of the speculative traders out from earlier shorts along with the USD bull. And this resulted to a market squeeze where sophisticated investor / traders can avoid by cross trading currency pairs to at least level of risk. A practice we do encourage contrary to taking positions post risk events that could go the other way around due to certain pullback activity by institutional fund traders.


USD RETREATS FROM HIGHS 

Price Action: POST ECB Triple Rate Cut ...

"Brewing in the pipeline" ECB Announces Triple Rate Cut -  POST ECB - EURO declines & Pullsback wth a Rapid Whipsaw as Market Volatility Remains very High

EURUSD PRICE ACTION


The rapid price action after the ECB announcement where the EURUSD declined to the support levels and managed to pullback above the day's range that we considered a hefty whipsaw that drove fresh short positions from the report that triggered a quick exit mostly by speculative positions. This is what we do not encourage traders to do. Prices would continue to move against speculative shorts that institutionals would carry this action until the closing of session. Cautious play should be observe.

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Weighing Volatility with Market Behavior

Market volatility remains a variable factor in trading; as external forces dominate factual current conditions in the market. A Keen analysis of the Global markets!

3-Reasons Volatility Coming Back - El Erian

Market Insight Turns Trade Position for Value Investing

MegaTrade101.CIPHER3 Analysis

In trading financial markets, undergoing a certain process of deduction takes a considerable due diligence in choosing which of these instruments best suits current market conditions that would well have the highest market potential with the best probable return over a period of time.

After a extensive due diligence in the current FX market, while the process that took place started as an initial speculative outlook, the current resulting price action from our recent market position on the Australian Dollar, SPOT AUDUSD - AUDH2016 Futures has just changed its status into a smart trade position for value investing.

Market Insight Turns Trade Position for Value Investing

Monday, March 7, 2016

CCY Corner: AUD EUR CNH & Crosses

AUDCNH Basin Formation 
As of 3.11.16
UPDATE: AUDUSD @0.7570 AUDH16 (LIQ) AUDEUR @0.6783 AUDCNH @4.9045

Interestingly enough, market focus is on the three correlated pairs the way we see a perspective on trading these pairs that is based on expectation of increasing market volatility in the near term. Light reports for the week with the exception of how China's massive cash outflow and the increase iron ore prices in commodity markets affect the AUD & CNH.

On the other hand, ECB speculation on additional stimulus and recent talks of BREXIT are increasingly crossing the wires as these would greatly affect the market prices moving forward in the near term. Fundamentally motivated markets will be the dominant factor affecting these currency pairs. For now the market front has been real quiet with the commodities market taking the limelight with iron ore and oil prices sustaining their rise to this writing.

CCY Corner: AUD EUR CNH & Crosses

Sunday, March 6, 2016

The ART of CIPHER3 & PRICE ACTION Analysis

Megatrade101.com

The CCY Corner reflects MegaTrade101 current market outlook and CIPHER3™ Price Action Analysis of each currency (ccy) pair & their corresponding cross rates. Due to the time difference of the three major markets, certain price action from the previous trading sessions would differ as price fluctuations are influenced from several fundamental forces which makes prices change in a rapid fashion at times.

CIPHER3™ is one of the most effective strategies developed for trading the Foreign Exchange Market as a proprietary trading system, known only to a few trained strategists that had undergone the workshops mentored directly by Sir Alexander @megatrade101.

CIPHER3™ Analysis is a three (3) step 'thought driven process' which highlights the spot currency pairs and cross rates, their correlation with specific financial futures contracts and options prices that relatively moves during certain market conditions. Going beyond charting and price action analysis, as there are no short cuts to trading volatile markets when investor / traders want to get trade results right!

Registration & Special Access to this Premium Page is required.

Guest Speaker Engagements is now open for financial events, lectures & seminars! For advance schedules & appointment
Email us at: info@megatrade101.com

Friday, March 4, 2016

Brazilian Real in the Limelight

On the currency market, the USDBRL or the Brazilian Real have moved back towards its lower levels as the news broke out of the graft probe on ex-president Lula which may likewise lead to a link with the current president of the nation, which he had paved the way to be in office. This market is politically influenced and recent reaction may trigger a ripple effect as it drags along the way.

We will be watching how this development would make the currency move from its present course. As a pullback have also been reflected where the nearest low levels have provided a support for the prices to move back @3.7350 to this writing.

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

CCY Corner: Strong GDP Lifts #AUSSIE

UPDATE: AUDUSD @0.7515 As of 3.9.16
UPDATE: AUDUSD @0.7425 VALIDATES TRADE CALL

The strong GDP data coming from Australia finally gave quite a good lift for the AUSSIE. Although, there were some previous doubts as to when momentum would begin to build to justify the technical trade setup that it presented itself at an earlier stage. 
 The closer relative correlation with China draws a dividing line compared with the USD as a major trading partner. But for position trading the Aussie Dollar aside for having a reasonable swap rate compared with the rest would be considered a market potential, as we made mention in our position trade setup to our client / constituents. 

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Asia Spill-Over Effects From Wall Street

Recovering lost ground in Equities, Oil and the precious metal have been the main drivers of what investors are seeing from the markets decline for more than a month and a half since opening of the new year. The surge on Wall Street have likewise given Asian markets that added lift prompting even the JPN 225 a boost as it moves @16753 levels in line with the USD/JPY  @114.00 to this writing. We'll keep focus on the market behavior moving forward at the beginning of the new month's trading activity.

Meanwhile, the spill over effects of a Wall street rally & other Asian exchanges have given some life for Philippines Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) above the 6800 handle that gave the USD/PHP currency a move @47.15 contrary to a steady USD strength on a day basis. Trading the Philippine market with its US counter-part on the EPHE ETF have outpaced the PSE Index due to its higher liquidity and room to make adjustments along the DOW & SP500 as an alternative strategies not commonly available to PH main-street investors.  

Although the market is limited, the PHP currency is still well within its upper band range with a few probable hiccups on the downside before a resumption can be made since its the election campaign period is well underway. The 48.15 levels is an initial near term cap. Unlike the rest of the majors which has a wider price range to move as they are globally & openly traded in the market; unlike the USD/PHP which is quite limited & so do with the PSE Index.