Sunday, November 29, 2015

USD Index is in Triple-Digit-Territory!


USD INDEX
@megatrade101 The market has spoken...USD Index is at triple digit territory! Sustaining these levels would now depend on the heavy series of market fundamentals this coming week.

Watch "Secular Market Forces" direct market conditions as end of the month and entering a new trading month will have their overlay price swings and market shifts. Expect an increase in market volatility with inter-changing volumes and volatility in between the three major markets starting with the Asian session. And working itself up to the series of news reports.

NOTE:  A secular market is driven by forces that could be in place for many years, causing the price of a particular investment or asset class to rise or fall over a long period of time. In a secular bull market, strong investor sentiment drives prices higher, as there are more net buyers than sellers. In a secular bear market, weak sentiment causes selling pressure over an extended period of time.

A must read related information on USD Direction dated August 30, 2015 as a reference & driving point where the USD were perceive to be heading before all this occurred. Before and Post Market Price Action serves as a preference for due diligence at all times.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

On Market Timing

The importance of "Timing" a settlement or liquidation of a trade position, has the same equal importance of "Timing" any trade entry in the market.

Developing the skill of "market timing" takes some serious due diligence and experience in trading the forex market. There are times that systematic approach do make good trades, however times do change; and under these circumstances the market dictates price action and not how we want to perceive what it should do.


Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Thanksgiving Holiday!

The shortened trading week would provide the market with much less liquidity levels which normally is reflected during a holiday. With the upcoming "Thanksgiving" holiday schedule, @megatrade101, we would like to express our utmost gratitude for all who shared our trading journey through out these years.

It has been a roller-coaster ride for the past 3 quarters of 2015, and yet being able to surpass our trading objectives, not without some hiccups, of course, have been quite a challenging path. However, we are always up for the challenge of these markets. And the market will always be there for the taking!

With the market's trading extension and market disruptions mostly in stocks, after reviewing, our past three (3) quarter trading performance and deliverables, it has come to the point that we would take advantage of calling it for the rest of 2015 year. Yes, an overdue trading break is scheduled after the Thanksgiving holiday this November. Although, we would still be monitoring market conditions but would relatively be lessactive and leave the rest of our long term stocks, currency denominated conversions & ETFs to be carried over to 2016.
Have a great holiday season!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING! & CHEERS! THANK YOU!

For sharing your time and reviewing our market insights... 

alexander@megatrade101  

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

  

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Trade Sequence Follows Trend On CABLE & AUSSIE

AUDUSD

UPDATE: Trade Sequence have Just been Validated As of Nov. 20  24, 2015 US Trading session EST

Anticipating a probable corrective move for the USD are in line with the daily session lows in stocks; the momentum has dwindled as investors digest some relatively bearish reports both in the US retail and ECB Mario Draghi's comments.

The spill over effects from the EURO dented Cable's gain which signaled a probable down turn for the European majors. The resiliency of the USDJPY was still holding above its bench mark levels since the BOJ statements were overshadowed with how investors viewed stocks including the Asian NIKKEI 225 Average staying above the 19850 levels.

AUDUSD Price Recovery & CABLE's Decline
Brief Insight: Behind the Strategy ll 
Trade Sequence Follows Trend On CABLE & AUSSIE

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Two (2) Validated trades: GBPEUR & GBPJPY Crosses

The recent price recovery of CABLE from the week's low @1.5155 and currently @1.5275 has provided the momentum run for both GBPEUR & GBPJPY crosses a leg higher. That, of course has also been correlated with the corrective move on the USD as it pulls back this morning lower opening in the Asian session. Note that the GBPEUR an "Alternative Strategy" that we covered in our previous market call last Nov 09 which led to the comparative strength and weakness correlation between the Cable & the Euro as a good preference to choose from as against a top heavy on Yen related crosses among others in our video support and "Trade Summary On Cross Rates 2" .

Although, there may well be a probable continuation of this run; it is in our best interest to have settled and booked the two cross correlated currency pairs based on their time exposure and target objectives. These trades were in effect as follows, with the GBPEUR from Nov. 09 -to- Nov. 19th 2015, and booked @1.4275 in the Asia session today. While the GBPJPY was from Nov. 11 -to- Nov. 19, 2015 was likewise done @188.35 as it meets our price objective at this point of the session.

This validation is dated Nov 19 2015 at the Asian Trading session for MT101 Journal documentation.

 Trend-following has its advantages! And following a trade plan that defines time exposure, price objectives and adapting to market conditions should always be a priority in trading volatile markets.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Trade Summary On Cross Rates 2


Net Percentage Trading can only be as effective when choosing the right combination of correlated currency pairs that are timely executed  in the market. While treating a loss as a cushion against unexpected adverse price fluctuations.


MegaTrade101.com Video Support Trade Summary On Cross Rates
USDJPY,  AUDJPY, GBPJPY, SGDJPY, CABLE
Focus on the Japanese Yen related cross rates with an arbitrary hedging strategy on Cable against adverse price fluctuation

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Moment of Silence!

MegaTrade101 is not all about making money! Taking time to reflect how blessed we all are for celebrating life. Pray that others would see the same way one day. We are reaching out to all for "Peace"

Our prayers goes to all in Paris, France!

Monday, November 9, 2015

CCY: GBPEUR as Alternative Trade Strategy

The major stock indices delayed reaction among traders and investors have again surprised the market with a triple digit decline on a Monday start of trading activity. Media coverage of a rate hike has been the main-stream of coverage which we do think is primary been priced-in. However, secular forces are still at work where a probable bull trap has been setup in this decline. A Tug of war between bulls and bears are struggling to dominate the market place.

The GBPEUR cross rate as an "alternative trade" aside from the fact, other than using it as a counter-trade strategy; the GBPEUR cross rate has a better daily swap rate compared to having a negative swap on the single currency is a small bonus for traders.

CCY: GBPEUR as Alternative Trade

Sunday, November 8, 2015

How big is the Trading Volume in Retail FX?

And how it affects investors trading experience

The Retail FX trading reported by the Bank for International Settlements is in the vicinity of $185 billion, just about 3.5% of the $5.3 Trillion of the global interbank market. But here is the most important detail to this figure. Of the $185 billion, $78 billion was registered as FX spot trading and with this figure comes with $74 billion are in "Forex Swaps". (Figures based on BIS)

How big is the Trading Volume in Retail FX?

Friday, November 6, 2015

NOT JUST FOREX: Validated: JPN225 & USDJPY

JP NIKKEI AVE.
Market Call Validated as of Nov 06, 2015

With the NFP - JOBs data out of the way and the recent rally of the USD: what was overshadowed by the market was the relative correlation of the JP Nikkei Average with the USDJPY. Whereas the market call dated the 26th of October would be in line with the probable surge of the USD. From the price levels of 18900 towards the end of this trading week at 19455. A substantial gain along side the USDJPY. Of course, the call on the USD was the unexpected increase of 271K jobs compared to the previous data of barely 142K that saw a drop on the USD then.

A lot of traders and investors where asking as what happened to the stock market that barely made a move on these reports. However, it is nice to note that having to monitor all three (3) major indices; the JPN225 again, have been over-shadowed simply on the premise that it has become second -fiddle to the China market being the 2nd largest economy since its declaration as such. But for us investor-traders, our first responsibility is to ourselves as investors. By doing our due diligence in trying to be at least one step of the market, in most times as possible. This way we would be able to achieve Alpha trade results by using leverage to equalize risk and maximize full market potential. 

That is also why its equally important to secure and keep trading journals dates, market calls, which could be referred to when the time its called for.

IN FOCUS: JPN225 & USDJPY

MARKET RECALL - EUR USD Diametric Trend Direction

Validated by JOBS Data
Following s sequence of market analysis does have its distinct advantages. As trade setups on a "Trend in the making" can only be verified after the fact! And may take time to be completed. That is why @megatrade101 training we do emphasize the that "Trend-following trades"  are an important  discipline for investor traders who are self-directed in trading these volatile markets.

Diamtric Trend Direction Market Call
In reference to the  market outlook on " EURO & EURGBP Cross" dated 9.30 have finally been justified and validated! The trend call then has been made as of Nov. 06 2015 - Friday closing @1.0735. 

A tech perspective presented itself then and it took a major fundamental driver like the JOBs data to push the USD higher nearing a triple digit figure again. Where the DXY registered a previous high @100.39 dated March 13 2015. Is the market ready for another 3-digit figure on the USD?

USD Rally Validates Cross Trade Strategy

The NFP Report have been the key driver in pushing the USD Index to higher territory while registering 99.34 basis point to this writing. A surge in the Jobs #'s with 271000 actual jobs growth and a 5% on unemployment figure surely gave USD bulls a run for the bank.

Please visit our previous sequence of market analysis that led to the best trade results for the week. Although, somehow this figure have slightly dampened stock prices, as this would be an encouraging data for the FED to justify an rate hike this December and start its normalization process.
The Cross trade strategy applied might be a little more expensive to maintain before the risk report, but the end result have been favorable since the data was nothing compared to market expectations. Click the link for details

 #‎USD_Validates_Cross_Trade‬:‪#‎USDJPY‬.‪#‎SGDJPY‬ JOBs 271K

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

The Gartley Formation on SGDJPY

UPDATE: As of Nov 04-05, 2015

Overlay Study 1 & 2 on the SGDJPY cross pair has a significant technical perspective. Chart study 1 shows how the Exponential Moving Average is used to smooth the distortions and eliminates price swings HI/LO on the candlestick chart. While doing so, taking a clearer view without the bars will show how the Gartley formation can be seen without the relative bias of the candlestick bar formation. The identified pattern has just started its price reaction.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

NOT JUST FOREX: SPDR SP500 ETF

SPDR SP500 ETF
In reference to our previous market view, the USD correction and its mild manner behavior have provided some ideal momentum built-in from the past couple of trading days. While a  reasonable increase in the open interest reflected that this has driven a rally and some breath of fresh positioning at the start of the trading week with the stock market indices.

As mentioned, whenever the closing prices maintains their current levels from last week's closing the overall picture of the trend remains to be intact. Today's move have proven to be true and correct. But contrary to this outlook, we do have some traders and analyst seeing the opposite.  As the NFP #'s would be another risk event that would be focused on Friday.

Additional Info: SGDJPY Cross Rate

NOT JUST FOREX: SPDR SP500 ETF

Monday, November 2, 2015

Identify Correlation: EURO v. USD Overlay

DXY /as of Nov 02, 2015
Seldom would we find the image of a closely correlated currency pair with the proportionate linear regression alignment. And the EURUSD and the overlay DXY have reflected this case scenario on a technical perspective indicated below.

The essence of having an overlay is to be able to spot an aligned or divergent trend which would normally create an identifiable price action that would coincide / or distort price direction on the charts. Although, distortions occurs more commonly within different time frames. But the relative trend once configured to be in sync with price action would have the probability that such trend can be a major one in the making. The 3rd quarter Price Page Indicator- a unique blend of price comparison analysis by using the OHLC prices have now opened in a normal market at the November month. There is more to this than meets the eye which we teach in our programs application!

Thus by having the right tools of the trade applied in a particular instrument can best define and derive a well informed trading analysis prior to positioning the trade and the execution. Click here

CCY Effects on China Central Bank Rate Move

As we all know by now that the financial markets since the past few years has been dominated by central bank policy makers. Reading, analyzing and interpreting language and intentions for clues of direction can be taxing, confusing to a certain point of uncertainty.

Today's move by China central bank in increasing their central rates by a 0.54% points have given another surprising blow to currency traders. Although, our take on this move have apparently been more subdued to the fact that China's central bank would really have some difficulty to relinquishing control and hold of this powerful tool to take control of their economy. Aside from the fact that it would a great pride for China whenever the IMF would recognize the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan) to be part of the basket as a global reserve currency.

 USD vs.Chinese Yuan as of Nov 02 Asia Trading Session


This move is currently the biggest gain since the previous devaluation which was interpreted as as way for China to stay afloat and be more fairly competitive in the global markets. The present move would have a positive effect; not only for China's economy which has been claimed to be reaching stability along side with the global markets. Click to continue