Market Insight: DXY Confined Above Range

DXY Confined Above Range

Now that the FOMC statements have been made the FED's direction towards the rate increase is well within its time frame. The overall performance of the US economy is steady with jobs and unemployment on track the USD Index after its corrective move for the past two weeks is currently steady moving higher.

 The DXY reaching a session high @97.65 to this writing shows its resiliency for the week ahead. Especially with Gold and Oil favoring a higher USD move have been quite supportive. Nothing has really changed from the last two weeks and coming back to see that the Stock market has yet to find a considerable catalyst to find its breaking point. The wide consolidation of the Dow Jones is still confined within its range. While a few stocks such as SBUX has been steady with prices well on the higher band of its trend. These are the moves that certainly retain and follows its major trend contrary to the roller coaster ride we've previously seen.

The technical angle on this chart figure shows the prices well within its  channel trend applying the Fibonacci Fan and Retracement Theory that defines a well established trend contrary to its daily and weekly pull backs that justifies a healthy correction before the next stage of higher moves seen today.

Have a great weekend!

NOT JUST FOREX: USD Reinforced Position Via UUP

The #housing data has again been the main driver to this market, with the #USD moving well within its establish trend higher. Sitting on tight with #UUP yesterday was @25.30 compared with its current levels @25.60 taking its due from the USD Index. Take note of the consecutive volume build up that provided the early signal that the probability of prices would eventually move to the inclining tech angle higher at the mid-range levels of the Pitchfork

Meanwhile, the N225 (NKY) earlier in Asia just managed to get back lost ground with the #USDJPY now @124 even levels. Wile the rest of our long running stock picks for keeps just simply could not stop the ball rolling. Way to go...#SBUX #GOOG, #FB,   

Market Brief: Observations & Sentiments

Volatility is all over the market place! The resounding support to stabilize the markets in China have shown that the strong fist of the government is in control of the intervention to stop further bloodbath in the market. With a full swing price recovery from the fresh round of measures both China and Hong Kong are paced for a recovery. The intervention by China government and the cooperation from institutional firms maybe compared to a concerted effort of central bank intervention when markets are derailed from its normal course. 

There are certain concerns about these actions compared to a free-flowing price actions in the market, where market forces are working under certain conditions. However, when the general flow of investors are hysteria the most logical action a governing body is to control and contain the situation such as what happened to the market at the middle of the week's trading. The only valid reason is to allow investors confidence to get back into the market.   

Surprisingly, the timing of a computer glitch in the US Trading market have also provided further decline from the Dow Jones, but still leaving a triple digit decline at the close of the day's trading. Meanwhile, in the currency market; Risk Aversion benefits the Yen's appreciation as it touched the 120.40 levels and a subsequent correction by pulling back towards 121.30 to this writing.

The DXY reaching a 97.23 basis point high have made a slight corrective move lower,  well within its daily range and have not been affected even with the statements from the Fed. The market have been focused more on the Grexit and the China measures that have kept investors uncertain reactions whether to come or go with their respective trades. Although negative contagion still prevails in the market.

So where will traders and investors take the next cue from? Recommendation: Watch and Learn! A good Reference Guide is still the best approach to "Measure Price Action" on a decline and a rebound of prices after a fundamentally driven market by China & Greece. Where Price Action Analysis is the next best way to project the next market call.

Comments: Whew! Sure glad lady luck was still on our side since calling it from the end of the first quarter dark cloud formation and the discipline to take our regular trading break before all hell broke loose. Avoiding such headaches surely pays well. Our two (2) quarter earnings are even more than enough! Knowing when to trade and not to sure does help even for experienced traders as well.

See you all after our break.
ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!. TRADE WITH CAUTION.

Its that time of the year again!

@MegaTrade101 shall be taking its regular quarterly trading break starting today just in time for the celebration. "HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!"

ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES

NFP Below Expectation - USD Resilient for now!

UPDATE: July 02, 2015

NFP missed expectations and a slight change in Unemployment have barely made the DXY decline a corrective move from a recovery with one day left to trade which priced in an overlay of the end of the week and the opening 2 days of the new month before the 4th of July celebration.. Take note that the USD price recovery has gained back what it lost which scared the "Rookies" out of the market both sides of the US and the Euro markets.

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As of July 01 Asian Trading session

The DXY have regained lost ground and rebounded back above key levels @96.00 basis point to this writing prior to up coming reports. Carefully monitoring their price net changes and range trading per session on a pull back or rebound are as equally important that we have always emphasized.

As .MegaTrade101.com by Sir Alexander who developed the system can determine the weighted percentage distribution versus the USD ahead of time with a fairly good assumption for each currency pair projected price target levels. This would likewise be the first part of the initial equation to derive its corresponding cross rate value and its projected price level moving forward.

The chart above has no technical indicators, just a simple Candlestick Chart to reflect "PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS' based on price movement and its behavior.

MT101-Video Support Analysis and presentations

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MegaTrade101.com Video Support Analysis and presentations have received a wide viewership from the top countries listed below which includes the US, the United Kingdom, the Philippines and the other countries.

Again, Thank you very much and we appreciate your Interest & loyalty! And we do hope that we have accomplished and contributed to your bottom line figures to make trading work more often in your favor; rather than how the market moves.

The Next #Risk_Event is Ripe for the Picking! #JOBS Data

Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Report

AUDJPY CROSS RATE

Taking a cue from the next risk event on the NFP and Job #'s would dictate the direction of the USD for the fundamental. While an interesting technical configuration of the AUDJPY Cross Rate is carefully being watched for now and being compared with its correlated individual currency majors. 

Although, the Cross rate is indirectly relative to the majors; the influence of the USD's movement affects the currency majors directly and reacts more. Meanwhile, the DXY have regained lost ground and rebounded back above key levels @96.00 basis point to this writing prior to up coming reports.Carefully monitoring their price net changes and range trading per session on a pull back or rebound are as equally important that we have always emphasized. As we can determine the weighted percentage distribution versus the USD ahead of time with a fairly good assumption for each currency pair. This would likewise be the first part of the initial equation to derive its corresponding cross rate value and its projected price level moving forward.

Another Cross rate to look at is the current run of the AUDNZD that has made a tremendous.high @1.1428 in the Asian trading session and is obviously making this run all the way to the bank, so to speak. The fundamental catalyst to provide a lift would then provide a reinforced trend in the making depending on the volume and momentum that would take place. For now these two cross rates are set in place that would align themselves with the current market conditions. Ripe for the picking! Properly Choosing the Appropriate Currency Pairs to Trade

AUDNZD Cross rate as of July 02, 2015 Asian Trading Session

Insight: Does it still follow: Buying the Rumor or Selling the Fact?

Which side would you take now?

Now that we have received the actual Greek confirmation on default after the fact, does it still follow the famous saying of 'buying the rumor and selling the fact; as far as the Euro vs. USD is concerned? Well the obvious answer to this question came before the fact when Euro prices opened in Asian trading session with a opening price gap lower and then made such rebound thereafter.

Market price action and its behavior is equally as important and a proven applied strategy for most traders and strategists that have experienced such market activity during high risk events. In this particular case coming from the European majors. A sequence of analysis were provided in preparing how the markets would react with the probability of price pullbacks on a decline and recovery from their respective opening levels. Although, not all currency pairs had similar patterns due to the level of volume trading activity. A process of deduction do takes place where the least probable effects on the other pairs would be more or much less than expected.

Understanding the market price behavior relative to the behind the reason of such movements can make or break the difference. As the shifts of investors funds from unwinding positions and creating new ones would have to be segregated by carefully watching VOI on futures since spot FX does not carry the full blown report compared to other broker dealers that report their respective in-house trade volumes which may not define the true value of worldwide trade positions coming from the delayed CFTC COT report. Thus, this is also where 'alternating trade strategies' should be considered while defining the risk relative to their respective rewards especially from a top heavy USD still prominent market sentiment remains.

With that said, the market now is well within the start of the 3rd quarter trading. For MegaTrade101 actual reading thereafter; that a new phase has started taking a cue from how technical charts have been created from the actual trading price configuration. This week's price action relative to what the results on Greek's referendum results are to some respect has been priced in the worst possible case scenario. That brings us back to a lesser market activity in search for the next catalyst that can support another round of prices moving in both direction..

@MegaTrade101, we must have been doing something right!
Thank You very much. As of June 30, 2015 update.

In effect, Megatrade101 is now in the process of adjusting positions to unload and carry-over towards the 3rd quarter of 2015.. For the time being it is our traditional trading break and would like to express the honor of being able to provide / share our significant trading journey this 2nd quarter. As a majority of our loyal constituents and clients have benefited from these few but well defined pairs. 

Not to mention, our viewers who have been able to take advantage of some of our information to better their bottom-line figures as this is our own way of providing an independent, unbias market analysis while in search of the right trading information resources. These sequence of analysis described has been our best performing end-result for the month of June 2015 as evidenced from our blogspot data alone: not including the reviews from our website.