Saturday, May 30, 2015

Comparative Analysis on Trade Signals

There were two (2) early and valid technical signals coming from the USD Index and the Candlestick chart patterns that led to this rally nearest to its initial objective @125.40/50 levels and supported by valid fundamental reports that have driven the US Dollar higher. It's not the trading platform that really counts, but the entire process of making a market call that matters and properly executing the trade at the best possible time..                  

The overlay chart where a correlation of the DXY with the UUP is established as the alternate choice to trade in lieu of the DX futures. Hedging the USD/Yen existing gain would be applied with the futures inverse price action whenever such turns may occur in the market. One of the best approach in protecting gains accumulated over a medium term period of an interim trend.



N225 ETFs Forex Hedge Strategy

Alternating Major Currency pairs can be considered to be a probable potential market mover which could only present itself first as a signal and thereafter be identified after the fact. 

And that is the only point in time that a successful trade position can also be validated since the underlying effective analysis on properly timed execution can be claimed deemed true. 

N225 ETFs

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

#PriceAction Analysis & #MarketBehavior : #DXY & #USDJPY

TREND-FOLLOWING THE DXY & USDJPY 
USDJPY as of May 28,2015
The information also validates our Market Call on the DXY before the fact - as of May 06 and for the USDJPY's probable direction as of May 25, 2015 - after the fact. With that said, the #DXY reflected in this chart is based on both the currency pair's "Price Action Analysis and Market Behavior, where the USDJPY have reacted real well to the strength of the USD reaching a registered high @124.28 to this writing May 28th in the Asian trading session. 
The distinct advantage of being able to first choose the next probable currency pair market mover would certainly be the key component for following the interim trend thereafter. Which in this case, the USDJPY have the upper market share; although loosing value but a real trade success for the USD. Knowing the market price probability based on the Fibonacci Theory on correction and Retracement would help a lot for purposes of projected price range. 
ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES!

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

VALIDATED & CONFIRMED: #DXY - #USDJPY - #AUDJPY Market Call 5.25.15

 
Trend-following the DXY on its strength has proved to be the right decision taken as the effectiveness of the Price Action Analysis is still in effect. The anticipated market currency mover choosing the USDJPY has registered a 123.00 high along with its correlated cross rate -particularly the AUDJPY moving in tandem with the USDJPY  chart based on May 25 before today's move simply just paid-off. Thanks to 'Market Timing' from a thinly traded US Market holiday that gave us an advantage in 'TIME EXECUTION ANALYSIS'

ReferenceCCY Corner: DXY USDJPY AUDJPY Cross Trade Strategy

Monday, May 25, 2015

CCY Corner: USDJPY - AUDJPY Cross Trade Strategy

The more positive tone coming from Fed Chair Janet Yellen have proven to be a hawkish sign for the USD as the Fed would still raise rates this 2015. However, implying that the markets would be 'choppy' is being noted by other analyst as to how an economist would stand on an assumption that stock market price behavior would take place even before any rate increase can be made. 

A better than expected reading on inflation have proven to be an initiative that the Fed's expected action takes place in the order it sees fit. Thus this would still be positive influence for the interim trend with the US Dollar, especially opening with a small gap basis point from Friday's closing @96.10. This was a spill over effect based on a the likelihood of US rate hike with prices in the Asian opening earlier leading a firmer USD. 

Alternate price action other than the European majors have shown its effects with the USDJPY's recent price swing higher to 121.75 but failed to sustain the daily resistance level nearing 122.20 that would trigger trade interest to move higher. The range bound in prices within a similar consolidation period for the USDJPY reflects that it is preparing for a break which tends to follow its primary and interim market trend higher. Although no significant volumes and price momentum have shown that a follow-through would follow within the next few trading days. 

CCY Corner: USD AUD JPY Cross Trade Strategy

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Growing Wealth and Directing the Right Instruments

Defining a trade can best be made by conducting market meetings to enable traders and investors to have a strategic plan of action that would cater to both sides of any market condition due to upcoming risk events.

However, this does not necessarily mean that traders would have the same similar position, market price and timing the trade execution within the three major markets. What is equally important is to grow the equity and value of the portfolio while simultaneously preserving wealth by being flexible and adapt to market conditions from time to time.

Directing & combining equities, Exchange traded funds, (ETFs) over standard mutual funds or bonds and the liquidity of the foreign exchange market would have its advantages as long as asset allocation and distribution would be carefully considered. And portfolio commitments have a well defined risk classification that can provide a manageable yield over a specific time frame flexible enough to be adjusted moving forward, While adapting to market changes and to have the accessibility to harvest short-term market price fluctuations without disrupting the overall projection of its core value of the investment funds in the portfolio.  

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

CCY Corner – US Dollar Index (DXY) Sequence ll

Validating a technically motivated signal & Market Call Dated 6th of May and Confirmed by a fundamentally driven market report as of May 18, 2015. Market Timing is always crucial for anticipating a market mover with manageable risk that is well defined for both entry and exit strategies.

A double whammy has hit the market with the US Dollar recovering first from the declining Euro at the start of the week’s trading week due to the renewed concern over Greece. This issue has always been on the back-burner until such time a resolution can be cleared.

The secondary catalyst for the US Dollar’s current surge came from the positive US construction pace since 2007. Although other analyst have been crunching the numbers in question and seemed to be unconvinced. When such positive sentiments combines with jobs growth then investors would react with increase vigor that may even push the overall markets to the next level.

CCY Corner – US Dollar Index (DXY) Sequence ll

Sunday, May 17, 2015

DOW EPHE ETF v. PSEi - Market Insight

The Dow previous high @18288 is merely a stone's throw away from last Friday's closing price @18251.97. The volumes are on the average trading sessions have been at even par on the daily turnover; while money flow towards the major index have been increasing with full interest for bull players in contrast to some analyst and activist investors still looking for the " boogeyman " in the market to drive it lower. 

The positive tone from a range bound price consolidation would take its breaking price swing in favor of the primary trend. That is if no such contrary report would contradict current market sentiments. Daily session pullbacks are still expected but limited to profit taking rather than short-sellers anticipating a correction as it had always been expected and speculated on by a lot of earlier bear callers.

DOW EPHE ETF v. PSEi - Market Insight

Saturday, May 16, 2015

How Significant is an 'Interest Rate & Currency Swap' for a Forex Investor?

Since global rates are in the limelight, we thought of sharing this information to remind us all how significant rates and swaps are in forex trading positions for the majors and cross rates particularly the Euro and the EURGBP just as an example. So consider 'alternative trades & strategies' in offsetting transactions that would only deliver value in trading and investments. Cross market strategies between currencies, stocks, futures and ETFs are valuable to one's portfolio.

A refresher for investors and traders who value rate differentials in trading and investment. The information and analysis found on MegaTrade101.com and shared information are not typically found in most seminars. Trading the financial markets are risky and should carefully be studied before getting involve.

Some due diligence is required
How Significant is an 'Interest Rate & Currency Swap' for a Forex Investor?

Friday, May 15, 2015

Insight on Cross Market Strategy

Dow Jones US Dollar & Euroepan Majors:
Since the general price action in the European majors made a run and with Stocks across the board have pulled out ever so closer from its consolidation, by the end of the trading week would provide a relatively good market daily session pullbacks for position adjustments and settlements. There is no sense to speculate or contradict an established trend that has been defined for some time. This also goes the same with the Dow Jones and the other major indices that has gained back their footing from a consolidation. 
This is of course whenever a surprising market element that would ignite a market breakout for the Dow Jones would not be discounted.
       Insight on Cross Market Strategy

Thursday, May 14, 2015

On Euro Contradicting Statement

Clarification & Correction Needed

Whenever a respected analyst comments on why the Euro have strengthened was due to the ECB bond buying program; needs to be clarified and reviewed. Or the CNBC reporter just misquoted and wrote it wrongly? Here is the excerpt of the statement: " "quote...

"One of the great ironies in the market is that since the ECB started its bond-buying program, yields have actually risen and euro/dollar has strengthened," Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, said in note. "It will be interesting to see if (ECB President Mario) Draghi expresses his concerns about that, which may take some of the momentum out of the euro move," he said....unquote' Source CNBC news

Our take on this statement is that Mr. Boris Schlossberg is obviously bias on the Euro short-sell side of the market.  If we are wrong on this assumption, then we stand to be corrected. However, the point is that the current re-resurgence of the Euro is due to the USD weakness and dark cloud reports that started at the opening of the 2nd quarter of 2015. And has no relation to the past remarks of ECB president Mario Draghi. It' s after the fact and 'current market conditions have changed'. Its simply the confirmed USD weakness that led to the strength of the Euro and a European recovery in the making.

For others to read through this statement and analysis needs to check out the real reasons and not simply rely on others opinions. However, we are still respectful towards this, except we do needed to voice out a contradicting analysis when we came across such misconception that may confuse other traders and investors

It does make a huge difference to know the Right Information & Trading Resource and MT101 has no ill intention to discredit other analyst outlook.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Effective Analysis v. Contrarian Theory 2

Knowing how to define a time line on a correct market call is as important as knowing for how long an effective analysis can last before it can turn into a Mega-Trade is indeed something to consider well.

In an earlier post; strategic trading in the foreign exchange market is always emphasize on how certain methods of due diligence must be made to be able to first identify the right currency pair or instrument then come up with well defined plan of action. Whenever the results are positive along side certain market conditions this in turn may eventually lead to a market potential and trade position similar to what has occurred with CABLE as a clear example. The methodology of trading CABLE was primarily derived from our very own 'CIPHER3 Analysis and the results have been proven for us time and again. Admittedly, CIPHER3 is not even a popular method since its a proprietary trademark of MegaTrade101. 

However, we did mention likewise that we didn't want to miss a million dollar trade and this has been one of those potential mover last April 27 and confirmed last April 30 ( of course we just didn't specify which one except for our valued clients) A one million dollar trade order is equivalent to a USD$1 trade @interbank market on the way higher and another one on the corrective move which is part of the strategic trading techniques that MegaTrade101 applies in its trade plans.

The probability of greater rewards would outweigh the risk of loss in a given period of time. Other traders and or analysts for that matter, often times look at what the overall market sentiments are. One of the most common is the traders speculative positions and market sentiments index that shows the percentage of long against short positions in each currency pair traded. For other traders, crowd sentiments are often associated with the general contrarian strategy that traders perhaps opt to practice from time to time in their way of trading the market.

Sometimes a sense of justification whether their presumed trade goes in line with the crowd sentiments. This should always be avoided as it would not help build trust, trading ability and confidence in trading analysis. It does help when one takes up to do their due diligence and study with a respected authority. Remember, trading is not a popularity contest among so called market gurus. That is why we do encourage to take up the time to improve skills in timing a trade well. Keeping a journal would likewise be appropriate as reference for comparative analysis.

USD Relevant Adjustment with Foreign Currency Rates

In Search of Equilibrium in a Time Line

After confirming a bearish market call on the USD since the start of the 2nd quarter, the registered low @93.88 bp still serves as the initial support for the DXY. Upon doing our due diligence, the outlook for the DXY would be for a wide daily consolidation within its trading range until such time another catalyst emerges in the market. 

DXY Weekly Chart May 13, 2015
There are several surrounding factors that keeps market price swings at current levels. However, these price adjustments are well within our market call and the same due diligence on global exchange rates' equilibrium levels & self-adjusting into these market conditions after a round of rate cuts by major central banks  interest rates. China's two consecutive moves on the RRR and the recent rate cut have been considered by us as a market neutralizer after the RBA did the same beforehand. Where further stimulus are meant to prevent China's economy to deepen from their current situation.

For now, the directional trend for a weaker USD continues until such time it says otherwise. The consolidation may remain in tight ranges while a declining formation would be intact in a technical perspective along side a variable time cycle before the USD pivots back to higher grounds. The assumption would be correlated to the USD rally that took place well within 7 months to achieve a relative high for the USD. 

With that said, to consider a variable time line that the USD would do the same on the flip-side with a specific price level will have to be defined based on this analysis. And on top of this case scenario, is to find the relevant signal where the probable disconnect of the USD outflow of investors from the current market conditions of the Dow Jones as an additional indicator for such occurrences within the time line. In essence, due diligence is a must to come up with a well informed trading decision. More to follow related to this subject matter.

Since in today's global information network is well in place, most sophisticated investors and traders are more self-directed with the information available. What is more important is knowing and be properly guided with the right directive information applicable and meets their trading criteria before any trade execution. 

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Wall St Gains - China Cuts Rates - Neutralizer - Asia Follows Stocks Higher

 
Wall St. has every reason to celebrate the Dow's recent gains from last Friday's NFP report that led it back above 18100 levels. A retest of its previous high @18288 may well be made this trading weeks ahead whenever a USD move would align in the same directional trend higher.

This has given the USD valid reason to hold lost ground and move higher at the opening of the Asian trading session. In the course of price action but not limited to the technical Gartley formation previously discussed;  the DXY higher opening levels is directly related to the Dow's last Friday's stronger closing which provided an incentive for investors to see a continuing direction for stocks. A lot of disappointed analyst that has been calling a major Dow decline faces the ever ending question when will this occur?

Watch for the re-surging volatility and fundamental drivers that may unexpectedly show the coming weeks. For now the DOW and again the USD should be monitored well as they are our main deceive market indicators. This is on top of the recent rate cut from China over the weekend Sunday as giving more flexibility for banks to provide a competitive interest rates adjustments for deposits and encourage better relations for credit and loans to pickup that would counter a slow growth for the year.

This move have been a market neutralizer for the China stocks and Hong Kong to make adjustments that saw Asia opening on stocks to move in the same upward direction the same way Wall St. finished with a positive tone last Friday.

Friday, May 8, 2015

Following the Sequence of Trades ll


CABLE as of May 08, 2015
A fundamentally driven market for CABLE has again regained its lead with its' currency peers, as an isolated case since it has been fueled by the vote of confidence from the exit polls in the UK general elections where the conservative party would hold its power well against the labour party, which have lost some seats in the minority. 

This led to its party leader Ed Miliband’s resignation after the labour party’s defeat in the general elections. Having walked into this trading scenario where Sterling Pound has reached another registered high @1.5520 clearly signifies the positive sentiments among voters and investors alike. With that said, the continuing sentiments would provide some pressure for the USD to move against its Cable counter-part at the moment. This is in spite of the better jobs data on the NFP that should have lifted the USD by now; yet it has been in a struggle to lift the prices to this writing. Watching market behavior by the market’s price action is relevant towards the next probable direction along side with the positive effects of the recent job figures influenced the Stock market back to its nearby highs @18190.85 compared to its previous high registered @18288.63 levels. 

Vote of Confidence for Conservatives Sends CABLE Higher

GBPUSD AS OF 05-08-2015
A fundamentally driven market for CABLE has again regained its lead with its' currency peers, as an isolated case since it has been fueled by the vote of confidence from the exit polls in the UK general elections where the conservative party would hold its power well against the labour party, which have lost some seats in the minority.

Having walked into this trading scenario where Sterling Pound has reached another registered high @1.5520 clearly signifies the positive sentiments among voters and investors alike. With that said, the continuing sentiments would provide some pressure for the USD to move against its Cable counter-part at the moment. Trend for CABLE is well on Track! Great Job Voters!

This move gained back what was previously lost from the 1.5497 down to 1.5088 and is now @1.5490 to this writing. A trade whipsaw where a volatile market exist between bulls and bears struggling to take dominance of position after the report on the exit polls were made public.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

FX Price Action Defines DXY Direction

Fundamental v. Technical Market Movers:

DXY v. DXM15
The ‘Devil is in the Details’ sure does have quite an effect; as the ADP employment report have missed expectations which showed a 169k growth in the private sector jobs in April, well below the expectation of 190k. And the prior month's figure has also been revised lower from 189k to 175k. The initial catalyst to a bear reaction move for the USD which re-affirms the market call signifying a near-term corrective move for the US Dollar effectively a more positive and direct move that would affect CABLE, EURO and the EURO/GBP Cross rate.

Technical Perspective: DXY v. DXM15 Futures
FX Price Action Defines DXY Direction

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

DXY On the Tech Angle: Awaiting for new catalyst

Brief Insight: US Dollar Index

The USD slight recovery from the opening of Asia was limited as most traders are awaiting for the NFP report. And this has led the market to trade in lackluster conditions across the board. 

Meanwhile, the RBA rate cut barely made a serious dent at the end of the day's trading that pushed the Aussie back to its previous level nearing the 0.7965. And this goes the same way with the Euro after a round turn of profit-taking that saw a short-lived downturn while working its price swing back higher above the 1.1200. 

When we called an official validation and confirmation of the DXY dated April 30th for a continuing decline; watching the 95.05/10 levels and currently @94.88 to this writing would seem to loose its momentum while waiting for  another valid catalyst to reaffirm its negative tone. The formation is a double-edge sword that literally means that prices has a wider trading range in both directions. For purpose of trade presentation, deciding to use this Trading-View version for our brief market insight would be most appropriate.  

The succeeding cluster of declining prices in yellow coded color block signify a negative sentiment hoovering. Especially, since its already part of a new wave cycle as indicated by the Elliot wave (Blue shaded channel) from where it came from. However, the monthly chart would indicate a new flag formation which still is well within its bull channel contrary to the negative sentiments prevailing in the market.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

CCY Corner: EURGBP Cross Rate Correlation with CABLE & DXY

BRIEF INSIGHT:
The importance of following a sequence of trade analysis even after a trade settlement does not stop as we have always emphasized, The series of mix reports resulting to price swings in both directions for the US Dollar, CABLE and the EURO have been anticipated.

 For several reasons other than the US GDP & FOMC minutes,  UK GDP, ISM figures that led to a relief recovery for the US Dollar at the closing week of May 1: which happens to be also the first trading day of the new month. An over-lapping trading case scenario more often neglected and disregarded for its value & significant importance by some analysts, traders and investors for that matter.

This is were real traders and market strategist differ while uniquely separated from one another. The likes of protecting the gains made from the European majors against any adverse price swings well ahead of the market. More to follow this week as we would be watching the movements of the correlated pairs with their corresponding cross rates specially the EURGBP, EURO, &  USD


"Sequence of trades & analysis do follow and does not stop after trade set-up
 nor when a settlement has been made." 
Being ahead simply means you'd be out of the market, while others are just getting in. 
EURGBP CROSS RATE
BRITISH POUND
A Cipher3 Applied Analysis & a Combination of a Counter-trade Strategy 
By: Alexander @MegaTrade101

Friday, May 1, 2015

Trading A Medium For Investing

Is Trading a Medium for Investing in Today’s Market Conditions?
Most market articles are based and presented in their simplest form that are often used for discussions during every presentation, training seminar and workshop as relevant strategies that can be applied during actual and post trading activities. This helps traders and investors to develop a correct mindset by properly using appropriate trading techniques openly discussed in every possible market condition. 





         Trading A Medium For Investing