Thursday, March 27, 2014

Reference Analysis: AUD & AUDJPY

Benchmark Prices::

Reference Analysis dated February 05: Insight Market Update
                                            February 12: Insight: Market Update ll                                    

The Aussie Dollar & the AUDJPY cross rates; as the tandem currency pairs with the most potential market movers. As such, the relative price action already started earlier within the week where China's contraction can be seen alongside the performance of its stock prices. With barely 48.4 comparatively weaker than Taiwan and Korea PMI / export orders registering above the 56 & 51 respectively. This have dampened the Aussie for the past months until reaching its levels @0.8660 and 88.24 for the AUDJPY cross reference rate.

However, its recent recovery currently back-up to 0.8964 and 90.95 has been a welcome treat from the lows. For medium-to-long term trades have been very attractive for fresh positions anything well within 0.8500-0.8700 and 88.00-89.00 respectively on both pairs. It is actually a bargain price. And that is exactly what transpires when bargain hunting presents itself in the market. No amount of technical nor fundamental takes place specially for most institutional players in the market that applies certain benchmark prices from historical levels to trade.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Cipher3™ Analysis: AUDUSD vs. AUDJPY cross

Deciphering currency (Cipher3™ Analysis by MegaTrade101) prices is a trading process where three (3) currency pairs (two majors & their corresponding cross rate equivalent) trading parameters which are relative to the overall net-change value & price action from fundamental influences. 

And designing a trade strategy using a filtered spreadsheet between currency majors and their respective crosses would be made in identifying that one variable point that would translate each major pairs into their true relative currency value while trading in a live market That is also why a similar edge can be made with algo trading with price parameters can be calibrated along the way, as prices do move during rapid market conditions.

Cipher3™ Analysis: AUD & AUDJPY Cross

Friday, March 21, 2014

Key Benchmarks: DXY EURO JPY

Brief Report:

The market whipsaw on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P have seen market investors shifting back to where they have left off POST FOMC statements. And the corresponding US Dollar Index Spot seems to be moving back towards its February 25th figures along side the Euro. Key levels: DXY @80.05/15 basis point; EURUSD @1.3750/80 and USDJPY @102.55/60 respectively; set-aside the current fundamental report. Simply just the key numbers for price comparison. While the EURGBP & AUDJPY crosses have remained resilient with a milder market price swing from yesterdays influential report.

A probable repeat of history in the making has been anticipated. Although, this might still be a little too early to speculate on. However, the corrective mode would not be discounted as the DJIA and S&P are back to there intraday highs before the decline and since its the closing day of the trading week.

Russian Business: Not a matter of who gets hurt more!

With the ongoing political rift between Russia, the US and European leaders; the direct impact for Russian billionaires and their respective businesses can only compound in the very near future. The market conditions have started to shave off several millions or billions of market valuations from the past month alone.

Russia's economy was already weak going into the crisis, a 1.3% expansion from last year would over-ride and writte-off including the forecast for a 2% growth for this year. The ruble has lost 9% versus the USD making imported products too expensive for an average Russian employee.

Vladimir Potanin (metals business), is worth around $14 billion, worries about additional sanctions while precious metals prices have dropped from post-FOMC statements. Although, most of the companies he owns and claimed that they are using "multiple currencies" to diversify risk. And not only does Putin considering to look at Asia, these Russian businesses may likewise also consider diversifying and looking at the same direction.

The foreign exchange market's diversified networks of banks in Asia may also be considered (done right) and an alternative route for them. Private companies with diverse orientation on the financial markets may best serve these purpose for some of those Russian businesses that does not have any serious or real current ties politically. This is an awkward position for most, where they have been put into a tighter spot with the call of President Putin to pay-up their respective taxes that can only help the Russian government and try to ease the impact of these sanctions in the very near future.

These tensions would be continuing and sad that other main street businesses and investors would be directly affected with uncertainty to top it all. A majority of these financially well-off businesses has to make their move sooner than later. Exploring a variety of financial engineering would be to their advantage even for the average Russian businessman, who simply has to take care of business for the family, which comes first. Everyone in main street looses in these kind of conditions.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Insight: Behind CB Rate Decisions

The newly installed US Fed Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, have stamped her marked on the market by mentioning the Fed's guidance on its decision of rate increases within 6 months. And moving forward within 2015 after delivering her statements on the FOMC meeting that prompted a strong rally for the US DOLLAR

A different stance was likewise stated by the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, not to rule out the possibility of a rate cute, have driven the Loonie lower after maintaining its higher price level as compared to where the USD was trading before the FOMC statement. While the previous weeks, the BOE have emphasized a rate increase that also supported the British Pound to its higher levels before the meeting after the same move was made when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also raised rates.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Trade Strategy & Insight: DXY EUR GBP & CROSSES

Easing market tensions where seen in the markets across the board. The relative data from both sides of the continent have seen quite a comfort move for stocks and particularly for the US Dollar. This is what we would normally call a 'relief' as it moves slightly higher with the USD Index (DXY) recovering @79.56 basis point after coming from a recent 79.27 low.

The mix reports have only provided a short-live USD recovery supported by the February housing & inflation data as of this writing. And the recent comments made by Russia's Vladimir Putin added to investors taking some breathing room with the Dow Jones Industrial AVerage (DJIA), Nasdaq and the S&P moving back higher after the three digit decline from the past week.

From the lower band of the trade-weighted average of the US Dollar, we have expected that this recovery would occur simply based from our benchmark price parameters. And that the 78.80 basis point would be the key levels to watch for. which was just shy of 0.47bp from the recent low @78.27. Clearly doing our due diligence of taking on the DX futures contracts on the way higher once it provides a better signal before the closing 1st quarter at the end of this March.

Trade Strategy & Insight

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Why Forex Majors & Cross Rates?

The popularity of trading the Foreign Exchange market has exponentially grown over the past three decades since we could remember. Having encountered countless traders, where the majority are so familiar and more knowledgable when it comes to the Forex majors.

With a globally linked trading mechanism in place when discussing about the Foreign exchange market, the Majors currency Pairs has always been in the limelight. This has been the priority & most basic information for any financial institution providing feeds or a varity of financial news coverage in the market. The obvious reason is simply that majority of businesses and economies in different parts of the world runs under their respective currency flagship. The assortment of industry levels that deals with trade in a global perspective will always be concentrated with a balance between nations currency values.

Traders have always asked...Why go beyond the Major Currency pairs, while majority of the trades nowadays are made simple towards the majors?

Why FX Majors & Cross Rates?

Friday, March 14, 2014

Geo-Political Risk GOLD

The Ukraine crisis accelerating market uncertainty have slowly been creeping-up to investors state of decision making in trading. The US-DJIA have triple digit declines that weighed more on the market has provided the volatility expected combining the fear factor with risk. 
 
Meanwhile, the ripple effect have spilled over to GOLD, and investors likewise have shifted towards the JP-Yen heading higher in value; as an alternative trade for the US Dollar declining value and the added uncertainity in the market. Thus giving more reasons for traders to flip-flop often from unexpected news wires coming from the EU zone, specially with the increasing unrest and the stronger tone of sanctions for Russia that would have a huge economic drawback in the EU community and possibly in the West.

This has now become a Geo-political issue on top of economic destabilization that would be felt across the entire global market. With Gold simply walking through these conditions providing a sustainable support for the precious metals.

GeoPolitical Risk GOLD

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Trade Insight: Majors & Cross Rates

EUR GBP JPY AUD & Crosses

A continuing price action analysis combined with market the latest market data / reports have provided the majors & their respective cross currency pairs a fairly unique overview of the mix market sentiments of the Forex, Commodities and Equities market. It is wise to get a full perspective of all surrounding factors since it is quite obvious to state that the present market conditions have been for sometime fundamentally driven.

Majors & cross currency pairs correlation of price movements alongside these reports do provide a certain degree of trading currency choices and how to trade them. To be able to arrive at least with a well calculated trade strategy that would well be applicable to what the current market conditions are reflecting. Therefore, by following price action along market fundamentals provides a clearly perspective of what the prevailing risks aversions and appetites are, based on the actively traded currency pairs individual performance levels in value and price/range parameters.

Trade Insight: Majors & Cross Rates

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Price Action Snap-shot: 03.05 - Cross Currency Pairs

The following analysis is based on a summary of price action and the currency crosses in particular that we, @megatrade101 - have previously chosen as the primary trade positions best suited for the current market conditions and each currency pairs price weighted average. 
A certain process of deduction and currency elimination is based on a calculated exponential average price movement of each pair & which of the currency pairs would perform well, have the best probability and market potential with the least possible risk in the near-to-mid term period. A simple risk depends on the tolerance level one would be willing to take; in exchange for a probable gain in these kind of market conditions.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Strategic Insight: USD CABLE EURO

The significant decline in the USD has caught a lot of market participants breathlessly covering positions on both sides of the market place. With the US government's triming down its 4th quarter growth estimate have dragged the USD Index down to its lowest level @79.69 basis point.

With the US economy expanding to 2.4% annual pace as economist expectations was actually lowered from the original downward revison earlier reported at 3.2%. What the market has absorbed earlier in the week was just for starters as another round of influential data from both sides of the continent would be out this week from the US ISM - Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI(USD), the RBA Interest Rate(AUD), EU GDP figures and UK inflation report including rate decision, on top of ECB Draghi's speech on Thursday (Mch 06). And finally culminating the week with the US Non-Farms Payroll and unemployment rate (Feb).

Strategic Insight: