Saturday, June 29, 2013
Thursday, June 27, 2013
FOREX Market Insight ll
The revised GDP figures of 1.8% have placed an initial cap for the USD rally at current market conditions. Although, mixed reports on the state of the slower than expected economic recovery have also created a gray cloud over the Fed's tapering schedule.
With jobless claim falling and a slight improvement on consumer spending have signaled waivering sentiments as to where the next direction for the USD would take place. But the commodity prices on the yellow metal continues to decline have so far been supportive of the USD in these current levels. These conditons may weary its strength in case fresh demand would perk-up Gold prices on its way up for a corrective recovery in the 1250.00 /oz level from a low @1180.00 Likewise, As a matter of due diligence, please refer to where the corresponding price level of the USD Index when Gold prices were at the same pivotal price @1200.00 to have a better understanding of the point spread between gold and USD prices.
With the end of the month and 2nd quarter trading position / price adjustments by major institutions; this would add to increase price volatility by the opening of the new month in July. Market behavior focuses on any possible change on the Fed monitoring slower growth as the revised decline on GDP had little impact on the current USD levels.
Click to continue
With jobless claim falling and a slight improvement on consumer spending have signaled waivering sentiments as to where the next direction for the USD would take place. But the commodity prices on the yellow metal continues to decline have so far been supportive of the USD in these current levels. These conditons may weary its strength in case fresh demand would perk-up Gold prices on its way up for a corrective recovery in the 1250.00 /oz level from a low @1180.00 Likewise, As a matter of due diligence, please refer to where the corresponding price level of the USD Index when Gold prices were at the same pivotal price @1200.00 to have a better understanding of the point spread between gold and USD prices.
With the end of the month and 2nd quarter trading position / price adjustments by major institutions; this would add to increase price volatility by the opening of the new month in July. Market behavior focuses on any possible change on the Fed monitoring slower growth as the revised decline on GDP had little impact on the current USD levels.
Click to continue
Monday, June 24, 2013
Forex Market Insight:
Major market mover in the making!
Now that the market has reacted from the direction & time-table by the FED when it comes to tapering QE3, the USD's price action in today's opening levels have signaled a near-term exhaustion. The price gap can be interpreted another way - as a daily breakaway only if a subtantial follow through price action above the 83.50 levels would sustain towards the closing price of the week and month's trading activity.
Market conditions and price behavior shows otherwise; as prices have been struggling in both directions since European opening sessions. The four (4) hourly bar formation since Asian opening have signaled an island session reversal, filling-in the gap lower in the American trading session. Momentum from the USDx low since the Fed's annoucement have gained traction while heading to its current levels @82.57 to this writing. The USDx retracing back-down should not be discounted towards the remaining trading days fo the month that would still justify that the overall trend for the USD heading towards the third quarter have established a higher low. With exceptional constraints whether such price range would be maintained. But if the prices holds true below the 83.05 primary resistance before the end of the month we would probably see a major correction in the making before the real trend higher follows through.
Click to continue
Labels:
Channel support & Resistances,
counter-trade strategies in forex,
DJIA,
Donchian Channel,
EURGBP CROSS RATES,
EURUSD,
GBPJPY CROSS RATE,
GBPUSD,
market analysis,
Price Gap,
price reversal,
US dollar Index
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Identify Price Discrepancy & Candlestick Bar Formation: EURGBP CROSS RATE
CONSTRUCTING A TRADE ON THE EURGBP CROSS:
In the absence of news before a major risk event takes place, traders & strategist in the forex market tend to look for identifiable candlestick bar & price discrepancy that occurs in charting system providers.
Not to discredit them but simply to turn such discrepancies into a trading edge and an added support for technical analysis. Developing a keen eye to pinpoint such formations takes time and experience. This process helps to determine a more detailed approach in establishing an entry and exit strategy. And this is just one of the methods we apply in our trades. Click here to continue
In the absence of news before a major risk event takes place, traders & strategist in the forex market tend to look for identifiable candlestick bar & price discrepancy that occurs in charting system providers.
Not to discredit them but simply to turn such discrepancies into a trading edge and an added support for technical analysis. Developing a keen eye to pinpoint such formations takes time and experience. This process helps to determine a more detailed approach in establishing an entry and exit strategy. And this is just one of the methods we apply in our trades. Click here to continue
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Monday, June 17, 2013
Next Level Analysis ll
Comparative Approach: DX EURO DJ-FXCM USD:
The market has been fixated on the upcoming FOMC report that would probable dictate the outcome of the financial market this week. Although, the G8 summit meeting is focused on the Middle-East crisis and comments indirectly affecting commodity prices that would add to a volatile oil and gold prices is expected.This would also provide some insights to the FED's clearer "Taper" time-direction from the FOMC that would make market price volatility in the coming days. But in the absence of major reports for now, market prices moves within a tighter range before any major moves are done.
In the inverse monthly chart figure 1; the correlation of the Spot USD Index (Black Line Graph) overlay with the Euro (Japanese Candlestick )provides an indication of the USD weakness more than the Euro have been supported both by fundamentals and technical analysis. And with the increase volume since the start of the year; the first quarter were USD friendly and a major corrective decline have emerged before the end of the 2nd quarter of June as volume again builds-up in line with increase market volatility. Click to continue
Friday, June 14, 2013
Classic Market Squeeze: EURGBP Cross
Latest Market action: Price adjustment aligned with market behavior
The behavior of price action provides an insight to what happens during trading sessions. Part of the analysis on the EURGBP cross in our video support; the tight trading range for this pair reflects a dominating struggle between bull & bear players.
Where price pullbacks for the EURGBP from their Highs at (0.8550 1st high - 0.8540 2nd high) and Lows at (0.8467 1st low - 0.8474 2nd low) were made between the earlier European trading session and the American late trading session towards the close of the previous day. Currently, prices have recovered from this market squeeze where the obvious whip-saw on prices have come from major players in the market. The daily average trading range of 100 pips+/- between pivotal price set-up @0.8505/10 have made swing trades to move in both directions.
However, a tightening price action breakout would soon materialize before the end of the trading week with the University of Michigan confidence report could be the catalyst to provide the final push for the USD.
Click to continue
The behavior of price action provides an insight to what happens during trading sessions. Part of the analysis on the EURGBP cross in our video support; the tight trading range for this pair reflects a dominating struggle between bull & bear players.
Where price pullbacks for the EURGBP from their Highs at (0.8550 1st high - 0.8540 2nd high) and Lows at (0.8467 1st low - 0.8474 2nd low) were made between the earlier European trading session and the American late trading session towards the close of the previous day. Currently, prices have recovered from this market squeeze where the obvious whip-saw on prices have come from major players in the market. The daily average trading range of 100 pips+/- between pivotal price set-up @0.8505/10 have made swing trades to move in both directions.
However, a tightening price action breakout would soon materialize before the end of the trading week with the University of Michigan confidence report could be the catalyst to provide the final push for the USD.
Click to continue
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Understanding Forex Price Action: 4 Majors & 4 Cross Rates - LIVE 6.12
EUR.GBP vs. USD.JPY Trend Continues
After last week's price rampage between majors and crosses; the USD continues to find some realistic support while testing the all important & key price level @81.05. Some USD bull speculators still remain in the market based on the lastest COT report in spite of the recent price decline.
However, the USDJPY decline or the Yen's appreciation dominated the market place as the BOJ maintained their monetary policy to spur-up their economy diappointed most traders leading to its price action decline in one day touching 94.98. Thus carrying the USDx decline equivalent to 81.05 basis point. The abrupt price action on the USDJPY low resulted to a strong pullback towards the closing and after retracing to as high as 99.27; a restest of the low was made on the first few trading days ahead of the week. This also affected the price activity on the cross rates especially the GBPJPY followed by the EURGBP cross which both currency pairs had pulled back from their respective HI/LO giving other traders a run for their limit orders in both directions.
Click to continueThursday, June 6, 2013
Forex: Price Action Strategy
Weighing Market Sentiments 2
Update: GBPUSD & GBPJPY vs. USD
As the ECB & the BOE held rates; the string of reports from the private sector jobs and the Labor department on jobless claims have dampened the spirit of the USD. Market sentiments on negative USD price reaction to this writing weighed heavier.
As the USDx maintained its decline as low as 81.07 slightly above the Feb.25 pivotal price breakaway towards the high. Expecting some pullback reaction from market capitulations coming from the huge Open Interest (bullish) USD speculators after the reports; once again have been caught flat-footed by the sudden decline & outburst of the major European currencies. Likewise, do expect a greater amount of increase in volume activity with declining open interest, on top of the declining USDx for the coming week. With the same case scenario for momentum build-up, increase in open interest and volumes from its European counter-parts. Click to continue
Labels:
counter-trade strategies in forex,
GBPJPY CROSS RATE,
GBPUSD,
jobless claims,
Mario Draghi,
Overlay analysis,
tight squeeze,
trend following strategies,
US dollar,
USDCHF,
usdx
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Weighing Market Sentiments-FX Majors & Crosses
Fundamental vs. Technical 6.4
In focus this week are data from Europe and the United States as well as the all important U.S. employment report on Friday. And this would take some serious considerations as to what would weigh more and be the driving force to move the market.
For starters the Aussie first climbed as high as $0.9790 in the early Monday trading session, and currently trading correctively @0.9652. Initial support is seen at $0.9565 which represents a daily engulfing-bearish bar when the price closes below this support. It would take the lead by mid-week when the GDP figures will be release on Wednesday (June 05) As expected, a temporary relief recovery came through from a defined bearish trend and a continued decline is seen in today's price acction. A negative bias remains enforced until a clear direction would state otherwise from the USD that may come from the Non-Farm Payroll figures this Friday which would be the main catalyst for the market by then.
Labels:
AUDUSD,
Australian Dollar,
counter-trade strategies in forex,
EUR/USD,
EURGBP CROSS RATES,
EURJPY CROSS RATES,
GBPUSD,
NFP,
non-farm payrolls,
US dollar,
USD dollar,
USDJPY,
usdx
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