Monday, April 29, 2013

Market Analysis: Majors & Crosses

The price swing seen in the Forex market reflects the continued investors uncertainty and vulnerability to shift trade positions at a short span of time. Market exposure on trade positions across the majors has been cut short as reflected with the latest COT report with major participants still in dominating market sentiments contrary to data coming from both sides of the continent.
This week's barrage of economic reports with a special attention on the coming EU Zone unemployment data followed by the US Consumer confidence and the FOMC overlapping with the new trading month would provide market volatility and price swings in both directions. However, specific price range trading within their respective parameters have been defined awaiting some fresh incentives this week.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Counter-trade Strategy: USDCHF Perspective

With the USDx resilient @81.85-82.05 support levels; as we have maintained a hold, neutral to buy the USD based on our April 16 market analysis report. And currently moved unexpectedly higher to its current price @83.05 which have proven that the corrective phase of the USDx for now has been achieved; from the high @83.50 dated the 4th of April and declined to 81.70 on the 16th of April 2013.
This recovery for the US Dollar have been influenced more on the Euro's decline from market sentiments focused on the G20 meeting as global growth uncertainty still prevailed in the market place.
However, even without the fundamentals, our expectations for unsuspected USD recovery were anticipated and held true to its form and re-testing beyond the 83.50 basis point is in the making. And this is in spite of the reduction of open interest and short-covering volume reported on the latest COT reports. With considerable volume and momentum build-up USD recovery would continue within the week nearing the closing of the month's trading. Click to continue

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Perspective: USDCHF - EURGBP Cross Rate

For now, we remain with the current market sentiments provided through our sequential analysis reports until such time a fresh market incentive would appear; when prices moves to their current directional trend.
A considerable market play combination are likewise seen between the USDCHF, EURGBP cross other that the Yen and the Aussie Dollar. As both currency pairs have reacted substantially to the BOJ and the Chinese data thereafter.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Comparing DJIA vs. USD...

And how Gold affects markets
The past couple of week's have proven to be true with the USDx touching off a sensitive support price @82.05 basis point from a high @83.50 registered since the 1st to the 5th of April.
The gradual decline has now seen some resilience as the US Dollar is being supported with some factors with Oil & Gold prices declining to record lows @USD1321.77 not to mention the Dow dropping to a minus 265.86 points for the day. The uncertainty of the global economy weighed in the market place as the Chinese data have had some negative influence in the market with the Aussie Dollar paying a price declining to it present value @1.0330 from a low @1.0289 at the start of the trading week.
In our recent analysis, upon the opening of the 2nd quarter trading report; the first 2 week's trading performance and market outlook for the USDx to decline apparently held true to its projected price action. But the relative action of the Gold market has held the USD firm and would likely determine its next price action within the next two weeks of trading for April. Although, what would provide a lift for the USD may not necessarily come from US data reports but simply outside fundamentals that may not be economic related but simply may come from market participants sentiments of market trend direction. The recent CFTC COT reports have initially defined that a significant change on speculative net long positions have changed hands alongside with short-covering positions taken for Euro has it traded above the 1.3100 levels. As traders have been caught within their trading parameters when price action and market swing have traded in both directions. Click here to continue

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Trading a USD decline vs. Majors & Crosses 2

The past week's trading after the BOJ moved aggressively with their combined monetary policy that triggered a rapid rise with the USDJPY and succeeding major reports coming from the US jobs data and ECB Mario Draghi's comments not to mention Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke; has made the forex market vulnerable in both directions. These are the major factors which the FX market has evolved in so far. No real market change as of now except that the market has maintained it posture within thier respective price parameters. Exept for the USDJPY, of course!
Relatively, our market call dated the 1st of April came through with the overall market price action at first glance favoring the USD because of how the Yen traded. But prices lingered thereafter with the US Dollar pullback lower and currently continuing to work @82.39 basis point to this writing.

Friday, April 5, 2013

Tug of War: USD vs. Majors


Weighing fundamental vs. Technical
A Tug of War is at play with the recent report on the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy that combined Quantitative and qualitative policies that prompted the USDJPY to surge to its highest level @97.18 as of this writing.
However, what drove the US Dollar lower was due to the Jobless claims report coming out from the labor department that have reached a four month high and the jobs numbers. The USDx registered an 83.50 high during early trading sessions and have started to pull back lower to its current price below the 83.00 basis point. And registered a recent low @83.27; currently working @82.50
Reflecting back from our previous analysis dated the 1st of April- stating that the USDx decline would probably come from a US based-data report in this case the Jobless claims have outweighed market sentiments into negative territory. The wide trading range for the USDJPY was a real surprise as it came it earlier than most expected; since the USDJPY came from a registered low @92.55 just last April 2nd. This is the kind of serious trading volatility from a fundamentally oriented market vulnerable to move in both directions in a rapid manner. Click here to continue

Monday, April 1, 2013

SRO - 2nd Quarter


Corrective Phase for USD

The USD has closed the 1st quarter of 2013 at their highest level supported with the better than expected performance of the US economy with jobs, unemployment and housing figures improving.

And this is inspite of the resurging European crisis with Cyprus adding uncertainty in the market driving the EUro and Cable back to their trend lower with prices below the 1.2880 which is currently the Eruo's main resistance levels at this point. While Cable making a slight recovery @1.5170 resistance price levels from a low of 1.5090 daily price fluctuation on a daily basis.

The opening levels after the Easter holiday trading schedule has apparently been quite thin while major participants are still reluctant to re-establish trade. Although, the established trend for the quarter ending has been defined. The first two weeks of the new quarter and month's trading would be defined with a corrective mode from this previous weekly trend for the USD. Where the cyclical pattern of the USDx would be in a corrective phase until such time a new catalyst would help push another rally. But for now, liquidity and market presence of volatility would gradually build-up as we open the 2nd quarter of trading.

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