Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Quarter-end Trading Break

In line with the short trading week in observance of Good Friday & Easter Celebration, Megatrade101.com shall be taking a quarterly trading break and would resume thereafter. For the time being we shall continue to monitor price action and market sentiments on the sideline.
ONLY THE BEST FOR YOUR TRADES! THANK YOU!

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Strategies: USDx & EURO vs. EURGBP cross rate

The first few days of trading activity has been attributed to the Cyprus crisis that has been in the limelight that have driven the opening prices across the board with a surprising opening gaps on the majors and crosses. Contrary to their respective closing prices have seen traders confused as to what strategies can best serve market rapid price action & volatility at the opening trading sessions.

Trading price gaps clearly has to be studied well whenever it occurs. It is not the aftermath that counts more or should be say after the fact, but certainly being able to have a well-balanced trading strategy in place before any eventful-effects would influence the prices in particularly this week's trading. Not to mention the succeeding reports for the week coming from the FOMC meeting and FED Bernanke's conference in Washington has kept prices in check for now after a huge price difference in price range during Monday's levels. Naturally a pause seen after the price gap while others have simply been surprisingly caught flat-footed by the prices levels.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Balancing Trading Strategies

Between sequetration USD negative & the NFP report USD positive
The rally for the USD after Friday's jobs data have caught some short-speculative positions flat-footed with the better than expected jobs numbers of 236K & a 7.7% unemployment figure. Which overwhelmed the market with a reinforced rally contrary to its corrective pullback since Monday's opening trade sessions.

Today is a little more subtle since a follow-through have not taken place, but likewise will occur at the least time expected by the market. For now, it is safer to state the importance that the first quarter of the year will be good for the USD, as supported by more than favorable data for the US economy.

The only uncertainty is the cloud hanging over the political bickering of Washington amongst members of Congress with the Administration. Meanwhile, the Fed has taken upon themselves further to provide monetary easing since 2008 and would gradually pull-out once a more sustainable recovery is seen. While doing so, the ability of Europe to really overcome their regional debt problems has not been helpful. And in contrast, as most analyst have been expecting a hard-landing from China has been quite disappointed as it is expected growth is within the range of 7.5-8% for 2013 compared to the US projections of 1.5-2% for the same year. With BOJ having a firm and aggressive stance for its monetary easing would likewise have to be within a competitive level amongst its trading European partners. 


Thursday, March 7, 2013

Market Psychology...

Behind price action: EUR.GBP Cross

Draghi's hawkish tone

As the Bank of England declined to add more to its stimulus package; the statements made by Mario Draghi of the ECB has turned the Euro from an obvious lower trend bias into a round about turn moving higher.

The initial price action remains to have ignited a EURUSD price swing from 1.2950/65 low to its current working price @1.3105; nearly touching its 14day-EMA and nearing its 1.3175/80 resistance price levels. The quick reaction sent most technicians referring to their charts pointing at the next resistance price level which spilled-over to the EURGBP cross that moved at least close to an 80pip range for the current trading session. And have marked an 0.8714 high coming from the low @0.8587-0.8610 range the past few trading sessions before the current price swing higher @0.8705/10.

Market Update: USD

USD

With the USDx still hovering at the highs currently, @82.55 vs. its currency counterparts is being supported with the latest round of economic reports favoring the USD as investors viewed a steady US recovery.
However, with the backdrop of the last European crisis, the world stock markets have been making headway into newer highs with Asia particularly the Nikkei finally playing catch-up as it soars higher. while the rest of the stock markets shares have fallen. As investors focus on the central bank meetings looking for signs of more stimulus policies between the BOJ, BOE & the rest of the Euro zone has kept the market quiet for now.

The USD safe haven status have again weighed in the market for longer term investors interest in spite of the global uncertainty in the market. Meanwhile, with oil prices and gold have continued to decline have likewise supported USD demand while investors shift funds with a deteriorating Euro. And the latest UK downgrade have added negative bias for the major currency pairs weighed more for the USD rally to its current levels.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Market Perspective SRO

USDx AUD EURO CABLE CROSS

Weighing on the market after the sequester, the US Dollar have been quite resilient with minor pullbacks even to this writing. It has managed to maintain at the higher end of the charts with bullish sentiments much in place.

However, as most reports say that this is just the beginning and a negative outlook is expected. Jobs, working hours would be cut and would definitely make a huge dent on the slow growing US economy. The reaction of the majors have been subtle for now with prices recovering across the board. Although, most analyst and traders would likewise be waiting for the end of the month for some fresh incentives. But almost all analyst is bearish for Cable which has pressured the market in spite of today's relief recovery

It was only the Aussie Dollar that has managed to recovery with significant grounds versus the US Dollar as it moves higher @1.0239 touching its 14day-EMA from a low parity price level @1.0114. This would be a temporary reaction from the RBA news of holding rates unchange and technically providing a relief from selling pressures. However,there will be a re-test of the earlier lows in the mid-term before a new trend reversal can be declared. Key price to watch is still the 1.0305/10 levels of its trendline resistance.