Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Market Outlook & Analysis 10.29

The anticipated onslaught of hurricane Sandy in the eastern seaboard of the US; the New York stock exchange would be closed on Monday & likely be the same on Tues. Severe weather conditions would dampen trading volumes for the week ahead making thin market conditions susceptible to wider price swings in both directions.
The upcoming US reports would still be released that would take the European market the leading market movers along side with the Asian trading sessions. US Consumer confidence scheduled on Tues expected to be favoring the USD and the ISM manufacturing numbers followed thereafter on Wednesday would take the earlier lead for market direction prior to the Non-Farm Payrolls & unemployment figures for October by the end of the trading week.
The recent USDx breakout above the 80.05 have sustained in a gradual pace versus the Euro and Cable as increase short-covering by huge speculative positions / traders have started to unwind before the end of the month's trading adjustments. A confirmation from the USDx congestion range of 78.60 low compared to its 80.27 high would weigh heavy by a confirmation of any favorable than expected report for the week. Extensions would be viewed at above the 80.45 - 81.00 basis point when it decides to make a follow-through with enough momentum on the volumes for the week.
The contrary analysis of a USD decline are slim but should not be discounted as the technical configuration for the USD Index on a weekly chart formation does not agree with the fundamentals unless a clearer confirmation above the USD price extension would hold at the end of the month's trading. Therefore, the last two trading days for the month of October would be critical for chartist to analyze by then. And a break below the 78.60 basis point would otherwise declare a bear making trend-changer for the USD. So far current price parameteres are not within such price range keeping a positive tone more towards holding a steadier trend.

  

Monday, October 29, 2012

Exclusive: Analysis &...

TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE: EURGBP Cross

The trade outlook & analysis for this exclusive technical perspective on the EURGBP cross rate has been derived from the previous summary of technical price parameters since Oct. 15 and projected forward. The market potential of this trade would be quite lucrative when it is proven to be correct thereafter the potential gain has been achieve. As such the conclusive analysis were gathered from its technical chart formation using the Japanese candlestick theory, price range between the Highs and Lows for the past several months.
This report and detailed Analysis based on current market conditions are available for Premium members and valued clients of Megatrade101.com

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Market's ability to react more from Fundamentals!


Currently Weighing fundamentals vs. technicals
The Dow Jones ability to move sharply lower on Tuesday reflects investors real market sentiments as some of the largest multinational companies mixed earnings and with Moody's credit rating downgrades for five of the European regions surrounding Spain have rekindled serious concerns about the slowing global economy.
The ability of the US dollar has firmed as a sign of revival for safe-haven activities have move towards that direction. While the stock markets decline, have redefined that stock market assets becomes a higher risk from soft corporate earnings reports reflected by the major Dow Jones industrial major brand names.
Traditional safe-havens, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc, could serve as an alternative strategy for US investors keeping the dollar in place at these higher levels. The only contrary to this scenario is that Japan is also having more serious difficulties with their very own economic growth.

Monday, October 22, 2012

USDJPY takes the Lead!

 Market Call Outlook through Oct. 23 ...Earlier than expected! Please refer to market view dated the closing of 19th of October report and video support" Bullish Trend Confirmation...dated the 18th of October.

....the EURJPY would hold its price levels as a continuation of the USDJPY would take the lead by then. Increase volume and market activity for Asian traders to move USDJPY higher in both the European and Asian trading sessions by the coming mid-week.



Identify Trend Analysis

The most common candlestick patterns are complimented by the behavioral price movements, increase and declines in volumes alongside the open interest. Wherein open positions remains unsettled and/or until such time liquidated that changes in open interest provides indication in the next possible trend. These trend indicators can best serve the traders to have an informed analysis based on the parameters provided while making a trading decision. Here is an important short-list or a simple guideline in determining a trend. It is up to the trader to pre-determine whether such trend would be viewed as a near-term trend or mid-to-long term trend analysis.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Counter-trend at closing...

Market Call Outlook through Oct.23

As we have expected prior to this report and towards the end of our video support that a counter-trend and price correction would be made for the Euro including the EURGBP and EURJPY cross rates.
And due to the latest release on U.S. home resales declining last September near a 2 year high, a contrary limited supply of houses up for sale drove market prices higher which provided an increase in home equity with very low mortgage rates.Thus making a stronger USD recovery working @79.61 near its daily high.
This has indicated that a stronger support @78.50/80 levels would remain while price continue to move forward to a higher level for the coming trading week. Which we made mention in in our market view analysis dated the 15th of October, 2012.
With mixed expectations from the European summit meeting which failed to provide some encouraging move; the Euro-single currency have given back some of its gains alongside with the Sterling Pound at the 1.6000 and 1.3024 respectively, as of this writing. With only a few hours of trading at the end of this week, the counter-trend would spill over for next week as the USDx recovery would now be in the making. We do remain positive for USD rally towards the middle of the last quarter of the year.
Meanwhile, the EURGBP cross remains resilient from the declining Euro but well supported by the GBPUSD as it corrects and establishes its daily lows within the US trading sessions today. Expect some lower extensions for the first two trading days for next week alongside with a USD index recovery. And the EURJPY would hold its price levels as a continuation of the USDJPY would take the lead by then. Increase volume and market activity for Asian traders to move USDJPY higher in both the European and Asian trading sessions by the coming mid-week.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Technical Perspective: EURGBP

The EURGBP cross has been the most well placed and tradable pair to date while maintaining a more positive bullish tone ever since registering its low @0.7760 dated July 23; a secondary-higher low @0.7880 consolidation before breakout higher and re-established its first high @0.8110 dated the 14th of September. After a corrective move low its current price is the second attempt to re-capture this higher price level.
Currently, registered an 0.8135 as of this writing and a session correction at the 0.8119 level.
There will likewise be some pullbacks as the initial break from it resistance line would draw short-covering and liquidation from net shorts after indicating a weekly doji bar from last week's closing. Prices are within is rising channel especially for those who would be able to tolerate reasonable corrective move before the next leg higher can be attained.
But the difficulty exist due to the gradual strength that the USD is slowly regaining.Although, there exists a bullish market potential in the mid-term plan for the EURGBP cross rates but just be extra careful with the drawbacks of the EURUSD on a daily basis that may influence the cross to its negative lower band. On the fundamental side, the market's reaction to Spain's credit line facility have supported the Euro strength reaching a 1.3120 HI during the session. A mid-week session to session counter-trend before the week's closing may also be made unless the two consecutive follow-through be made by institutional players.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Technical Perspective: EURJPY

EURJPY CROSS DAILY AS OF 10.15
The EURJPY cross has extended it high to 102.27 for now with resistance levels near the 102.47/75 range. The Euro have regained its higher momentum fueled by optimism in the upcoming summit meeting while Greek 10 year yields set new lows setting a positive sentiment for the Euro. Meanwhile, the USDx have set its daily correction as it opened with a wider price gap that caused some pullbacks during the American trading sessions. As long as increase momentum remains the same we should be able to see some bullish set-ups as a follow-through. Of course, unless otherwise stated with a negative fundamental from the Euro zone.
Although, current prices are well within an intra-week trading range, where a significant candlestick "hanging man" has provided an indication of probable daily pullbacks for the price during the turn of the mid-week. Low extensions are set at the 100.20-100.90 range levels; but should not settle for the week below these levels.

Directional Trend: USD - S&P vs.

Forex Majors & Cross Rates
A true test of defining a probable trend direction for the USD compared with the S&P versus the currency majors will be confirmed within the last trading quarter of the year. The upcoming trading week would be critical as a probable breakout for these two major leading indicators will take the lead for the rest of the year.
Although, we remain more positive with the continued strength of the USD as corporate earning results may likewise be mix to moderately good as manufacturing would slowly provide a better outcome moving forward for the economy. This week's economic calendar of reports would only provide a glimpse of what some analyst & trader / investors have already anticipated and the uncertainty of global growth still taking over market sentiments in general.
Meanwhile, the challenging technicals from the chart formations of the foreign exchange and commodity markets have expressed a time-line for any particular good breakouts on the US Dollar and the S&P500 index. With the USDx maintaining a sustainable support level @78.50/80 is valid while daily corrective moves are taking place every trading week. As compared with the S&P500 level of 1425.00 serves as the critical extended trend line support from its 1250.00 low since the first week of June. Though, a technically bearish top configuration has been identified that led to the current correction from its high @1465.50-1470.00 range and currently at the 1425.00 levels of support. Watching these two markets would very important for the week's trading.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Market Analysis: SRO 10.9

Indeed, the spill-over reaction from last Friday's unemployment report have had a more direct impact with the USDx opening with a gap Monday at the 79.50 basis point versus the closing price of 79.30.
Undoubtedly small, but the reaction made across the board where unexpectedly stronger with the direct effect seen more with the Sterling Pound plunging to it lowest price of 1.6000 as of this writing. This added on top of the BoE unchanged stance with their monetary policies on Quantitative easing regarding their Asset Purchases that remains the same.
Sequential Trade plan & execution:
This move affected the GBPJPY cross rates retreating down to its previous support price at the 125.50 and registering a low extension at the 125.10. However, this was undoubtedly been expected based on our Market view dated the 2nd of October; as Friday's closing lower from the high alongside with the GBPUSD have indicated an exhaustive price action when the unemployment data was released. Which prompted us to settle before the closing the two (2) GBPJPY long position still above the average price entry with a net positive end-result on the way lower. Which still was an excellent strategy while leaving the AUDUSD well within it target levels to be able to maximize the market's potential heading down to the 1.0150 target objective. It only takes one (1) very good trade to be up every month spread over a well risk defined trade plan.
While the AUDUSD have indded achieve this objective registering a low at the 1.0148 at the opening of this trading week. And is currently on a corrective mode working at the 1.0203 as of this writing. This would prompt us to consider liquidation of the short-position of 1.0409 before the closing of today's North American trading sessions that would provide us a substantial net gain of over 200 pips the least. Although, the Aussie still remains bearish; following our trade plan would make more sense in doing so while watching for the next probable set-up. 

Friday, October 5, 2012

GBPJPY Advances fueled by UE-Data

With some positive note on unemployment declining to 7.8% along with NFP slightly below expectations; the market's price reaction for the USD has stalled. Barely with a few hours of trading left for the week, may lead the rest of the market action and price swing for the earlier part of next week.
Although, the USDJPY has moved higher (currently @78.64) as an immediate reaction from the release of the data; has shown resiliency as it spills-over to the GBPJPY cross rate. Currently, @127.50 the GBPJPY cross had recently corrected and recovered from its decline due to the favorable report and Cable still bullish after barely reaching its preliminary support not lower than the 125.50 levels. Which is a very good pyschological support price.
The weekly exhaustion (doji) candlestick bar was the signal for the decline; while maintaining its trend channel higher in line with the technical trend line support of Cable at the 1.6065. 

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

AUDUSD & GBPUSD - Live 10.2

Directional Trend 4th Qtr of 2012

The start of the 4th quarter of the year with relative good signs for US manufacturing providing the lift for the US Dollar. The surprising move has kept many analyst and traders in Wall Street to continue their raging arguments on the prospects for Quantitative Easing.
As many traders and hedge fund managers have tirelessly been going back & forth with the same issues the European debt crisis that evolves with Spain taking the recent limelight of the story. Confusing as it may seem to a lot of foreign currency traders and investors; the market conditions in trading have changed its financial landscape of market analysis and trading execution.
Since high frequency trade execution by institutional houses including interbank trading have provided a higher degree of trading difficulty in the market.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Technical Perspective: GBPUSD

GBPUSD: The weekly cross-hair after a daily - rounded top consolidation has provided the Sterling Pound's weakness. Currently working at the 1.6190 would continue its decline and daily pull-back near the 1.6100/10 levels (S1).
Bullish momentum have declined from its daily consolidation while the gradual decline has been more associated with the strength of the USD and its related favorable reports the past couple of days. For now the registered high @1.6308 would serve as its initial topping-out formation and price levels. As long as the USD remains in positive territory a gradual decline can be expected.
Although, the daily bar chart in this figure shows the pullback from its daily corrective high @1.6174 failing to maintain and closed lower for the first trading day of October. Extensions to watch for are the 1.6050 (S1) levels and 1.6185/95 (R1) on a corrective move whenever favorable reports would come out of the UK and EU zone for the weeks ahead.
Current prices are stable for now while traders are waiting for some important figures this week from the Bank of England, the US FOMC minutes and particularly the unemployment figures.