Thursday, September 27, 2012

Technical Perspective: USDCHF

USDCHF:
Remains to be well insync with the directional trend of the USDx as it remains within the higher trend. And currently @0.9404 with probable daily extensions @0.9450/65; which happens to be 50% retracement levels from the previous decline.
A convincing higher trend moving forward while momentum gradual build-up with the right amount of price movement is a healthy bull market as of today's market action. Price behavior relative to the USDx shows that there is still a good potential for the USDCHF to move higher moving forward in the coming week even after the end of the months trading. With minor pullback from the daily price highs relative to the closing of the week. This will be well in line with the month's closing adjustments for the end of the third quarter of the year. While the opening price levels and the near election period would more likely lend some credible support for the USD with minor price adjustments lower on a daily session to session closing.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Market Price Action - DXY



USD Index: The fundamentals of a positive housing price sector and consumer confidence have supported the US dollar as measured on the daily chart in this figure. Currently, working in Asia @79.78 ( round-off @23.6% FIB) basis point recovery levels from a registered low @78.60 dated Sept 14, 2012.
Likewise, serves as the double bottom support price levels for both the daily & weekly bar formation. In addition, the opening price gap for the following week of Sept 23 have signaled a probable push forward prior to the reports. And successfully supported the technical outlook pushing further to the price high of 79.92 to this writing.
This recovery and price reversal period shall continue with the Fibonacci time zone (gray-vertical-line) trend cycle for another week. Near term objectives and daily extensions are set at the 80.05/75 price range which happens to be within the 38.2% standard retracement levels. Combined technicals applied  for Stochastics / RSI trade tools shows a valid recovery from the lows while expecting daily pullback price action influencing the currency majors and indirectly correlated cross rates. This chart analysis carries a minimum number of at leat 8 technicals tools applied. However, most traders and analyst may vary as to the kind of technical application that they are most comfortable with. And this is what matters the most; as these tools are simply lagging indicators that supports historical and market conditions of prices.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Market Assessment

Global Issues affecting the Financial Market
A more positive tone has been set today with a much better housing sector providing support. With housing prices increasing mildly into positive territory. Improving home equity no matter how slow it maybe would mean some breathing room for the US economy heading towards a recovery.
Improving Housing and unemployment are 2 of the key drivers for a stronger economic recovery along with a recent report that a bigger part of US manufacturing would be heading back towards the US by 2014 would indeed be a welcome treat for the employment figures. This would redefine a clear path for a positive outlook in the next few years to come. However, with the election year and the unresolved European crisis, may provide some changes in the financial landscape especially with the question of Spain and other EU zone countries ability to generate growth while meeting austerity measures may still dampen the prospects of a global growth in the interim years to come.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

In Focus: GBPJPY Cross

With no real news from the EU-Zone and most market participants pacified from the market volatility last week, price movement have been quite subdued with investors/traders more sidelined. The reluctance of most analyst to over speculate the next market direction have even diminished except for the dramatic decline of the oil market. 
Apparently, some traders and commodity analyst have attributed the decline from the recent remarks made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that fueled the US Dollar to move lower currently resting at a relief recover @79.12 basis point as of this writing. Market tone remains bearish while a mild correction across the board were seen in today's market. Event risk traders are simply waiting for some fresh incentives that may eventually trigger volatility in prices. However, news wires are fixated on the oil, precious metals and the Dow's succeeding performance levels. And in the Asian region, the USDJPY may take some lead for the week while the upcoming Bank of Japan Monetary meeting would take shape along with Bank of England's minutes this Wednesday that would be the lead currency for this mid-week ahead.
GBPJPY WEEKLY AS OF 9.18
With Cable remaining at a favorable tone @1.6235 some analyst have stated the over-extended bullish levels on both the GBPUSD and the EURUSD @1.3057 corrective mode respectively. That is also the reason why we have been slightly early on our mid-term positioning on the GBPJPY @125.09 dated the 7th of Sept. which resulted with a tolerable short-term floating loss within 3days. Until the market moved favorably last Thursday & Friday's directional trend higher. Currently in the position's favor at the working price levels of 127.59 as of this writing as well. Depending on the other pairs relative price action, extensions for the GBPJPY cross are well within a range of 127.60 to 127.02 on the lower side of the previous day's trading bar, but not lower than the 125.50/80 range support.
For now the market is vulnerable to any fundamental reports that may arise outside of the scheduled calendar of events, but remain in clear watch with the currency pairs correlated with the Japanese Yen, Cable and the Euro pairs.    

Friday, September 14, 2012

It's not over until....

This Friday's trading session is not over, since there are still a few hours to go till the closing for the week. As the saying goes... its not over until the - - - lady sings! So to speak!
MegaTrade101 appreciates the emails and likewise appreciates that most of our market view and analysis has delivered exponentially for your trades. We are only glad to share our insights and fortunately the market calls we have made are on the right side of the market.
Remember, we do not make any market calls nor guarantee that future results would be the same for other traders or investors. As long as we would be at the right side of the market most of the time than not; then we'll take them equally as important.
We would rather post this reply, and say ' Your Most Welcome" - one time as to not offend those we may have not replied to yet. Now that your ahead, stay ahead and watch how this market develops itself in the next few weeks moving forward.
Thank you for following us on Twitter and our Blogspot....... MegaTrade101.com

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Sequence of Market Analysis & ..

Price Behavior.
The culminating sequence of market analysis from the 18th of August 2012 have indeed showed that proper due diligence and carefully watching price / market behavior would go a long way. Although, no certain guarantees are made in any speculative trade decision except the probability of being able to spot a potential trade can only be justified after the fact.
And in supporting our video analysis dated the 7th of September, in fact has proven the point where the strength and spill-over of the Euro & Pound more specifically have touched its registered objective now @1.6130/40 range. While the Euro single currency reached beyond the 1.2880 and registered a daily high @1.2935 resistance price range. And have paused to take a breather while traders takes a careful watch on the other upcoming events for the week. 
GBPUSD as of 9.12
However, the relative correlated currency pairs with other majors and cross rates have primarily move in the directions expected of them and at the right pace for that matter. Momentum trading have paused as well as of this writing; prompting us to be able to write this article. Other currency pairs are carefully watching the forex leaders while taking a similar stance of some fresh news in the market. Current market posisitons have maximized it potential and shall likewise be settled regardless of the next market outlook. While others would still make their respective entry, we would be settling our score and book our net positive gains as a carry-over trade from the previous weeks. 
But one of the main highlights we have observed is the fact that a lot of negative bias for short-Euro traders have finally found the breather to accept the fact that the EURUSD have found itself more in the positive territory since ECB Mario Draghi announced his stance in supporting the Euro. And this is in spite of all the hype and challenges to do more from his most recent statements. In our overall analysis.... 

Friday, September 7, 2012

GBPJPY CROSS vs. GBPUSD

The GBPJPY cross rate has been one of the primary pairs that we have considered to trade in lieu of the fact that the market potential for the GBPJPY shows a more promising set-up. Although, the 124.70 would have been an ideal entry, due to the market's rapid action the 125.09 market confirmation was done. Trading a rapid market after breaking a consolidation and on the way higher to go long may provide a not too good of a spread as some re-quotes and /or busy server connection would have a few pips slippage along the way. However, the velocity of the current market prices beyond the initial resistance at 125.50 have now been labeled as the interim support. Again, the figures on the NFP would be the crucial catalyst. Scalping opportunities can be ideal as a cross trade for the other positions that we have.



As we as we mentioned that the spill over would continue mid-week as traders come back from the trading break-Labor day holiday. The first primary extensions for Cable would be at the 1.6000 first initial resistance levels; while 1.5880 is considered to be the primary support at this moment. A lot of contrary positions from most retail investors / traders have been active shorting the Euro since the 1.2555 - 1.2580 higher prices where consolidating. Unfortunately, it would be very difficult to speculate a top to sell unless a valid reason fundamentally would provide the push. As of now the prices are approaching some resistance prior to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). However, this has confirmed in real confidence our market call on the Strategy & ability to Spot a Potential Trade dated the 20th of August 2012,

Thursday, September 6, 2012

EURJPY - A Classic Tale


EURJPY DAILY as of 9.06
The statements made today by ECB President Mario Draghi has maintained the Euro in a steadier tone higher while the USDJPY have gained from the positive gains in the ADP job growth for private companies have increased by 201,000 new jobs for August.  

As a result, the Euro advanced to the 1.2650 registered high as of this writing and the USDJPY moved to 79.02 levels. Thus these two majors and market sentiments had spilled-over towards the EURJPY cross rate. And moved to the current price of 99.70; breaking away from the classic consolidation and follow-through movements from a low of 97.90 and a high of 99.00. Notice the period covered from the consolidation since August 17 until today's market price action from the reports.
As a matter of due diligence, the market potential in choosing the appropriate currency pair was the EURJPY, the GBPJPY cross rates versus the USDJPY; instead of the single-currency pairs. Why not the Euro? Well, the sensitivity of the market timing for the EURO while the ECB President Mario Draghi was speaking was more event risk compared to the cross and the USD vs. the Japanese Yen as the best correlated currency.
Please view charts below reflecting the correlation between the three majors pairs and how watch correlation becomes a cross trading opportunity with a well defined risk factor. Likewise, this defines the earlier statements made in reference to the consolidation pattern of a cuurency and its potential aftermath as to the market directional trend from a breakout period. Essential market timing is vital for this trading approach!
USDJPY DAILY as of 9.06
The market price reaction spilled over combining the two fundamental reports that led the USDx to hold its ground as the jobs numbers were higher than most have expected. This will likewise provide BOJ the necessary relief as to market intervention too close for comfort at the previous price levels as exporters have been suffering from a much stronger Yen.
The first line of resistance is slightly close to the 79.20 levels where the current high is registered at the 79.00/even levels. But we still have a few more hours and Friday's reports would be vital for the market direction. Expect the normal pullbacks as the last trading day for the week would end on a higher note since volumes and volatility would obviously increase in the next COT report by next week. Watch the GBPJPY as this also has a good market potential to check its market price behavior in relation with the Japanese Yen.


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Market Perpective 2 & its Behavior 9.05

One of the attributes of a breakout from a lengthy consolidation period after a major price action is the prevailing market sentiments remains stable. In essence, a bullish or bearish breakout would normally have a follow-through after the consolidation.
Unless a contrary fundamental over the prevailing market trend would indicate otherwise. That is why it is quite important to monitor the weekly COT traders report wherein the data between long and short positions are identified alongside the volumes and open interest defined for speculators & institutions alike.
With that said, the USDx opening price levels have lost its ground from a session to session basis since the opening gap from last Friday's closing of 81.35. And has maintained it levels while both European majors of the Euro & Cable have rallied to this point. This clearly marks a similar configuration a indicated on the DXY chart; where you can find an opening gap higher from previous close dated May 07, 2012; and gradually losing ground during the session.But kept its closing price above the previous day's closing of 79.55 The same is being traded today Sept. 05, but since this is a live market and we still have a few hours ahead in the trading; as long the daily closing would be above the previous day's close then the USDx interim rally will hold until further developments would say otherwise. Pls. view chart.....

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Market Perspective: SRO9.01

EURO as of 8.31.2012
As Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made no mention to the next wave of Quantitative Easing (QE3) at his Jackson Hole speech, but as always has emphasized that the Fed is ready to extend any assistance whenever it is necessary to boost the US economy.
Although, the USD gained a small relief-recovery from the US Consumer Sentiment as it rose to a three (3)month high in August as a slowing sign that the US economy is somehow recovering. However, the US Dollar (Index) then manage to decline against the Euro & Cable prior to the much anticipated Fed Bernanke's speech that the USD had fallen to almost in its eight weeks’ low and settling the end of the month at the 81.25 basis point lower band support. With the EURUSD registering a high at the 1.2637 and GBPUSD (Cable vs.USD) at the 1.5860 as both major pairs initially pushed through their respective resistances above the 1.5880 and 1.2580 as the USD declined at a gradual pace during the American trading session. Please continue....