Behavioral Price action vs.

TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL - USDX, EURO & CABLE

Fed Ben Bernanke's comments have been played cautiously with the Fed still ready to do more if and whenever they need to to spur economic growth. Many have a mixed of interpretation but however more downplayed hawkish rather than dovish so to speak.

Reviving the US economy with a well controlled inflationary measures as contrary to a stimulus package of QE3 has been a tireless effort for some analyst to keep strategies on trade analysis based on their respective reports, and sometimes to a point of being overly bias. Meaning, that a report from an FX analyst would reflect their bias trade position in the market.

The reliability of an independent-minded trader/strategist where a trade position is based on a current market trend rather than a price call. Calling a currency price closest to its objective is a true to life market call versus a price call on both sides of the trade without the conviction of the market trend to be. If and whenever a market call of a trend has been made and did not achieve its objective then the analysis based on such a call is incorrect. The call can now be corrected based on the outstanding strategies available for the trader whenever the trade position is a mistake too early or a mistake where the trader has no other alternative but to wait it out until such time it goes to his favor or not. A typical trade can be viewed from our Case Study of the Euro. Where a typical good trade was once placed but was left out and still active in the market could have been simply avoided and corrected earlier.

On the Technical & Fundamental Corner: USDx, Euro & Cable continue on our website: http://www.megatrade101.com/

Technical Perspective - EURJPY 4.20

The EURJPY cross indeed made more headway into its recovery from a low of 104.60 and currently at the 107.30. The price range is within a down channel & Trend from the previous high of 111.12 and the recent low of 104.60. With volume declining from previous report were due to profit taking / settlement rather than short covering. As most traders were net-short of the EURO vs. the Japanese Yen from most of the week's past.

A 50% Fib retracement back to the 108.30 is the next objective as the corrective move higher remains to be favored after the USDx declined to a low of 79.39. The Stochastics and momentum slowly building in a session to session would spill over to the US session as we head towards the end of the weeks closing. Please refer to the weekly chart formation as probable extensions higher can be placed at the 108.05/30 range that will provide a near term correction that may well extend until the last trading week of the month of April. Meanwhile, the comparison chart with the GBPJPY on the next tab have provided the positive tone influencing the European majors to set-aside the negative news surrounding the crisis on Spain.

Technical Perspective: EURUSD as of 4.20

The Euro vs. USD price action has been at a standstill without any real clear direction. Much of which is fundamentally oriented with what has been happening with Europe especially with Spain in the limelight. The fear of contagion has not left much room for the Euro even to move in either direction. The bias sentiment from most analyst is still bearish.

The 1.2850 -1.2990 trading support levels has been constant despite most traders outlook of breaking a low remains in place. The technical recovery can be seen right after touching the 1.2985 and due to the buying divergence created from this low; plus some short covering did emerged after breaking the 1.3000/25 initial support. have made it possible. Alongside with the USDx coming back to the 80.18 basis levels gave enough momentum for the EURUSD to move higher. However, the USD moving in both directions then heading lower, have given enough room for the Euro to keep pace with the GBPUSD higher. The end of the week's closing price for these majors are critical to re-establish a clear trend but expect to have a continuation of increased volatility more with the EURJPY & GBPJPY cross rates.

Forex Risk & Price Trends widens

Monitoring price levels & risk trends should be a primary concern for all traders of all levels regardless of the market strategies applied. For those who are involved with the major currency pairs and the cross rates are equally vulnerable to mention the least, as price fluctuations are wider every week that passes by. The fundamental mix from the retail reports and the G20 meeting would just be in the front line for this week's trading activity.
After the the USDx moved higher at the closing of Friday as expected, the contrary price action for the USDx would totally change at the last two trading days of the week from our previous market view report dated the 10th of April. After registering a low at 79.20 last week the closing price was well maintained at the 80.00. With an opening price gap in the early trading session at the 80.11 the daily correction low is likewise expected but not too far from gaining momentum to another rally higher.
Volatility with the major pairs and the cross rates have been active since the opening of the first two weeks of April. However, much of the activity can be attributed to the USDx direction. While the EURUSD & GBPUSD have fallen from its recent weekly highs most of the earlier short positions have been taken out due to market capitulation while volumes have diminished for the past week. Visit our website at http://megatrade101.com/ for a complete report and analysis inclduing the Yen and Swiss Franc.

Correlation Analysis - Majors & Cross Rates

Other than China's GDP report on Friday; the main highlights would be both the European & US Consumer Price and the US University of Michigan's Confidence figures for April. Which maybe expected to be within expectations and friendly to the US Dollar continuation for a recovery. Although, analyst would not undermine the lack of a follow through from the confidence after a few consecutive positive numbers from the previous months. A significant number would be the catalyst that would trigger a rally back higher for the US Dollar Index.

The behavioral pattern has been identified with daily lows couple with lackluster trading before a wide price fluctuation would occur between the last two trading days for the past weeks. The price swings from high to low of the USDx is forming within a symmetrical triangle prior to a break upwards. The two trading weeks of April is a make or break cycle pattern mostly known for by experienced traders especially in the financial futures 3 months forward market correlated with the Forex Spot market movements. A deeper due diligence should be considered as market weighs influential to both markets whenever trading the Foreign Currency market. Please follow: On the Technicals perspective at http://megatrade101.com/ 

Pivotal Price & Trend

USDx - EUR & GBP

True enough just right after the corrective move lower from the USDx registered "Higher Low" at the 78.09/10-78.80 trading range the expected recovery rally for the USD is on its way.

This was in line with our time frame / period market outlook / analysis dated the 12th of March "USDx 1st quarter to April Analysis" where a turn around would re-establish a USD recovery back to its original trend. A follow-through is likewise expected from hereunto with daily temporary pullbacks. Thus the next probable high would be made with the next trading weeks ahead. Extensions as previously described from the video from the support price of 78.80 basis point would initially target its high at the 80.40 - 81.80 before a retest above the 81.85-82.05 price point resistance levels.

This would correspond with the Pivotal price reversal of the USDX last marked in our CCY Price page indicator for the week ending March 2nd and followed by the European Majors thereafter. The high of 1.3485 for the EURUSD was first marked, likewise on the same week ending March 2nd. However, the GBPUSD did made a higher extension at 1.6036 on the last week of trading for the 1st Quarter which came in only second & keeping pace with the Euro. The last trading for the week of April 06 have showed some unwinding of positions due to a mix report but more favorable for the USDx to rally ending slightly below the 80.00 important level closing at 78.85 basis point. On the technical Perspective; the Daily three(3) rising method bar configuration with the fourth candle bar closing at the 79.85 is a bullish signal. Please continue at http://megatrade101.com/

Majors & Cross Volatility expected!

With the short trading week for some traders towards the Easter Holiday celebration especially in Asia; the sustaining view for the USD is highlighted from the expected FOMC minutes. But more importantly would be the ECB rate decision, the NFP and unemployment report this coming Friday. Inspite of the disappointing Tanken report; the main currency leader has been the Japanese Yen gaining strength versus the USD. The USDJPY managed to move lower at 81.52 while it influenced the GBPJPY & EURJPY likewise moving down to the 130.74 and 108.62 levels of support the first trading day of the 2nd quarter of the year. These are the best levels so far for a one day move where an expected recovery would be made during the new opening sessions towards the European & US Trading sessions.

The majors are more susceptible towards the fundamental side of trading rather than the technicals. We are still leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment of the US Dollar within this period. With a consolidation pattern establishing a base and wider price fluctuation within the week likewise the next three tradings days of the week after. Volatility will be the main focus of the trading sessions as the mid-week for the month of April starts.

The EURUSD would dictate the same volatility with the EURGBP cross rate as it attempts the 0.8290 low and 0.8360 trading band to trade with a wide price range on a day to day basis. However, the bias market sentiment still remains bullish with contrary market analysis for those traders who still remain bearish for the overall trend lower for the Euro. The pressure is intact for bear USD traders and continued short covering plus market capitulations for bear traders position holding until now.