Wednesday, February 29, 2012

In Focus: US Dollar Index (78.09 low)


USDX as of FEB 29, 2012

The USD Index has obtained its objective with an opening price of 78.10 today the 29th trading day of February. There has been a mixture of reports from the US. On the technical perspective, the price gap from Thursdays closing of 78.22 would make the trade for a temporary recovery as a relief from its recent declines.
This most recent price of 78.09 low may well be still a signal that further declines can be expected for the USDx in the trading range of 77.90 - 78.85 basis point. The adjusted and nearest resistance is now at 78.85. Failure for the USD to recover and try to seek a price consolidation near these bottom ranges would still be vulnerable for declines unless certain fundamental reports to support the USD would state otherwise. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony would be carefully watched for market direction in the next couple of days.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Market Analysis - SRO 2.28

Amidst the up coming reports as listed below, the volatility from the previous week have led investors, institutions and speculative traders amongst main-street investors alike winding down market actions.
EURO as of Feb 28, 2012
Despite of some good news from the housing sector did very little to further push the USD above its recent declines. The USDx measured at the 78.50 basis point level is still vulnerable for a continued decline especially coming from a low of 78.20 levels and the unexpected rally of the S&P last Friday.The crucial statements that would be watched would be the statements of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke towards the end of the week.
Meanwhile,the Euro's resiliency to hold above the 1.3250 - 1.3360 range is symbolic contrary to the other reports between Greece sustain conditions and the G20's meeting held in Mexico in maintaining and likewise supporting a stability of the financial markets through the IMF. Although, traders who has also maintained their bias bearish opinion have indeed suffered from its rally specially after coming from a 1.2970 extension low and currently working at the 1.3430 corrective move. On the Technical side, the Euro and the GBPUSD is well in line with the USDx move which targeted its 1st objective reaching a low of 78.20 not too far off from our price call at 78.05/10 levels. For a complete report click on the link: http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-view

Friday, February 24, 2012

Process of Booking a Forex Trade "LIVE" 02.24.12 by MegaTrade101

Thursday, February 23, 2012

USDX continues its weakness!


With reference to our Feb. 01, 2012 market outlook and analysis of the USDx the objective for the downside would be in the range of 77.95-78.05/10 where the USD may find some level of support. Breaking the more important 78.80 is crucial. As mentioned that as long as the USDx for the weeks ending the 17th &  24th of February 2012; would not close above and beyond the levels of 79.50-80.10 basis point. Then the directional trend lower would have to continue. Please refer to our USDX Down market analysis dated the 1th of February. The effective technical tools applied in the above chart are the FIBONACCI RISING FAN & retracement, channel resistance / support, STOCH/ RSI COMBINATION & MOVING AVERAGES on a daily CANDLESTICK CHART. including a series of analysis and positions taken in the market from January 26 has led to the finality of the trades made.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

FOREX Technical Perspective: EURJPY

UPDATE as 02.22  While the EURUSD strength delayed reaction even after the EURO group's successful deal, it is only now that the market has gained interest due to most traders were actually back from the US President's day holiday schedule. The USDJPY's price acceleration to 80.28 high have indeed given the EURJPY the fuel to reach its 1st initial objective stated above at 106.31 high as of this writing. There is no actual straight price rally unless enough volumes and fresh risk appetite positions are initiated by renew institutional coming to the market. The only danger that may subsequently arise is a probable formation of candle bars on a day to day basis that may lead to an island formation for a major corrective move supported by some fundamental reason. But for now we do not anticipate one. However, such moves lower would enable us to improve our trailing orders for protective strategies & would be booking the gains accumulated since February 2, 2012. Although, leaving a small number of units to be risked whenever the 2nd leg higher would resume.

FOREX: Technical Perspective: EURGBP

UPDATE as of 02.22: The recent price movement lower of the GBPUSD to 1.5695 and a steadier EURUSD above the 1.3180 MA price level have actually gave support for the EURGBP cross to accelerate beyond the resistance and trading range high of 0.8402. Currently working as of this writing at 0.8428 initial breakout price would have minor pullbacks on a session to session basis since this is the first re-test beyond the 0.8400/05 resistance (R1). While the technical mid-term outlook would be equal to +/- the length of the consolidation range as long as volumes would warrant such rally alongside with the EURUSD outpacing the GBPUSD for that matter. A follow through is necessary, again supported with volumes and enough momentum after a correction from this initial penetration. Otherwise, a failed follow through may lead to a major corrective move. But the only confirmation would come from the USDx price levels. For now the USDx is at 79.22 and we still have a couple of trading days left. The price range to watch for the US Dollar index is till 79.50-/0.05/10 basis point. Pls visit http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-snap-shot


Monday, February 20, 2012

FOREX:Trend Following EUR-GBP-USDx & crosses

Weighing fundamental factors now will define risk, volatility and market sentiments by investor / traders in the foreign exchange and stock markets respectively. Not withstanding the other equally important highlights but the most crucial reports amongst them not necessarily in its order, obviously are the final countdown on the Greece debt crisis, the Politically sensitive effects on Iran with the oil markets that would have a direct impact with the US dollar, commodity prices and the current market outlook for the precious metals. 
With that said, our stand on these issues would outweigh majority of the market's ability to define its directional price movements for the next trading sessions towards the closing days of the month of February. Although, we still remain with the same market outlook as a matter of following these series of events and market directional prices movements when we have called them based from our market view analysis since the end of January 2012.
A corrective move for the USD no higher than the trading range between 79.50 to 81.05/10 basis point and a trend continuing price level moving lower thereafter. Currently, working at the 79.05 while corresponding price for the EURUSD at 1.3227, opening higher at 1.3220 from last Friday's closing at 1.3155 which is a gap price of 65 pips as a market reaction from the current news wires for Greece before the European opening since today in the US we are celebrating President's day holiday as well.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has indeed held true towards the previous week's corrective movements alongside the Euro which led a change or hands and position shifting by some as the market has traded with a wider price fluctuation. Currently at 1.5842 filling in the daily opening gap levels in Asia have supported the EURGBP cross well above the key support levels of 0.8290-0.8305 levels. The markets ability to trade and gained back it corrective move have caused a lot so short-covering and stop loss on both sides of the market. Traders who held shorts on the way up towards the 1.5880 and 1.3320 respectively have lost unfortunately entries to buy then suffered while both majors corrected lower at 1.5640 and 1.2968 lows from the prior week.
For a complete analysis, pls. visit http://megatrade101.com/  

Forex:Trend Following USDx-EUR-GBP vs.JPY Cross rates.3

Friday, February 17, 2012

FOREX: 10 KEYPOINTS

Analysis from market reports can sometimes be confusing for others. The credibility of such reports should well be categorized in their simplest form.
News reports of actual events can and will always be easily related to, since they are indeed actual current events. Being able to relate information compiled or read through while comparing them with actual working graphs that depicts the reason or reasons why prices reacts from these reports is another side of the equation.
In most cases, analyst or financial writers/ traders for that matter would then summarize their respective view points on how they perceive the markets and react accordingly towards it by way of positions taken or not in the market place. Equally more important are for investor/ traders who uses these information alongside their knowledge of interpretation and tools of the trade, to be able to gain from the market movements in exchange for the risk/ tolerance that they are willing to take while literally exposing their investment funds on trade at a given period of time.
However, trading the forex market considers a little more due diligence since the correlation with one another would have to weigh together with other fundamentals that affects the prices worldwide. The ever growing retail broker's coverage of the expanded major currency pairs viewed and summarized by more than a hand-full of currency analyst, strategist and quant analyst making their point across the wires especially coursed-through the Internet channels can equally be compounded.
Therefore, as a matter of guide we have listed below at least 10 key-points to better understand in simplest form; how not to over analyze the analysis whenever taking into consideration related articles on analysis either they be technical orientations in nature or fundamentally related reports. The ultimate decision would have to be totally independent and not be influenced with how an analysis is best presented intellectually or with sophistication. It still boils down to clear transparency in content substance. There are only two positions to choose from which is either to buy or sell.

Link: 10 KEY POINTS: (Not necessarily in order)

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Forex Market Perspective: USDJPY

USDJPY as of FEB 14, 2012
The BOJ's announcement of increasing its Long term JGB & asset purchases by Y10T;have made the Yen prices well offered in today's forex trading sessions. This has led the USDJPY to move higher while yen value declines due to the move to increase QE measures. This is certainly BOJ's a strategy of staying as competitive as exporters suffer from a stronger yen at these levels. Although, risk negative; the Yen has maintained its gradual decline instead of a rapid intervention which everyone one has been so used to having at a certain price levels where the BOJ intends to come in. This way BOJ have found an indirect strategy that would benefit them more which obviously have been learned from the QE initiatives by the US to help boost the economy. The long term consolidation period would lead to breaking through its trading range between 79.00 - 75.50 levels, once an aggressive stance and the effectiveness of this monetary easing by Japan would continue to see the under performing price levels of the Yen in no time. Pls. visit our website for a perspective outlook and analysis for the AUDUSD, EURO, EURGBP & EURJPY CROSS rates at http://megatrade101.com/megatrade101/market-snap-shot


Technical Perspective: EURJPY Cross Rate

EURJPY as of FEB 14, 2012
The EURJPY has recovered from it daily corrective move and is currently back at the highs of 102.75. The corrective low at 101.80 was well supported and in line with the EURUSD 1.3144 correction dated the 13th of February and is working at the 1.3200 recovery levels. while the daily directional move of the USDx has helped the USDJPY to gain some ground and is moving back higher above the 78.00 1st resistance levels that has prompted to support the EURJPY cross currently above the 103.00 levels. The price adjustments likewise helped some traders to regain back some trade footing with fresh momentum and volumes have emerged while volumes are slowly increasing towards the mid-week's trading activity.
The daily candle bars as shown on the chart depicts the spread between bulls and bears are just about even while waiting for other fundamentals in the news wires regarding the Euro. For now the similar drawbacks are only expected on a day to day and trading session to session basis while the directional trend for the EURJPY cross is still within its upward trend. Suport1 levels are seen at 101.60 while it stays above the 21 day MA of 101.20. This justifies maintaining our position of Feb 2, 2012 as prices would continue to move gradually at a better pace while building momentum after the 2 day correction along side with the corrective move of the EURUSD. Otherwise, the USDJPY may well bid the prices higher in line with the corrective move higher of the USDx currently working at the 79.20 basis point levels. Any price above the 79.50-80.10 USDx resistance would trigger the cross rate to further its advance.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Technical Perspective: AUDUSD

The daily technical outlook for the Aussie dollar indicates a daily 'Harami' candle formation signifying a bullish pattern which was supported with the recent upward move towards the 1.0777 level, after the correction to the 1.0638. Although, the recent high of the Aussie Dollar at the 1.0843 was an extension price above our objective dated the 26th of January Market view report; considered a new high defining an uptrend has been established.
The contradiction would be a weekly formation that defines a spinning top signaling a probable correction is in sight. As some of the analyst have stated that the AUDUSD is a step away from a possible reversal. price wise could be a probability but trend wise its not.Of course, again otherwise proven to be wrong. An indecision could have been seen as the market in itself has been quiet for the opening trading day. The market behavior for the Aussie may well be simply a pause with a tight daily range before a resumption would be made towards the upward direction. Currently its slightly above the 21day MA of 1.0635 and otherwise the direction changes lower the support would be at 1.0540/50 levels within another rising channel still intact.
GUIDE FOR CANDLESTICK INTERPRETATION
Spinning Tops are depicted with small bodies relative to the shadows. This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears. They are considered neutral when trading in a sideways market. However, in a trending or oscillating market, a relatively good rule of thumb is that the next days trading will probably move in the direction of the opening price. The size of the shadow is not as important as the size of the body for forming a Spinning Top.

A Harami candle chart pattern in which a large candlestick is followed by a smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger body. In terms of candlestick colors, the bullish harami is a downtrend of negative-colored (black) candlesticks engulfing a small positive (white) candlestick, giving a sign of a reversal of the downward trend.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Euro tone Positive after report

EURO as of Feb 13 Asia Session
The opening price levels for the week is a reflection of the Greek's parliamentary agreement meeting its approval that prompted the higher Euro and consequently a lower opening price for the USDx. This choppy market reaction likewise is a clear reaction of the Tug of War both fundamentally & technically supporting wider price swings amongst the majors and crosses.
The active pullbacks across the board last Friday's closing were expected as the market sentiments and price action would continue its near term trend for the week. Liquidation and some short-covering actions were present during the week ending of the 10th of February that may prove to continue towards this week's trading activity.
Setting the pace for the USDx to continue to move lower in the interim with daily corrections within the price range no higher than the 79.60-80.50. And this can also be viewed on the weekly chart formation.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD, GBPUSD & the EURGBP cross maintains a positive tone after the Friday's move after the reports that would somehow spill over during the European opening sessions towards the US trading sessions.  However, the commonality amongst these three majors pairs is that they have maintained their respective prices above their 21day moving averages. Although, momentum have lost ground, expect volatility to improve once volumes builds-up. Whenever market participants are quiet, expect that this market behavior may get spooked as such sensitivity of the unexpected would occur before the consumer confidence numbers and retail sales reports.
For a complete report visit http://megatrade101.com/

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Technical & Behavioral Perspective: EURJPY

EURJPY CROSS DAILY CHART
UPDATE : As of Feb 09- Expect increase volatility, follow-through price action and pullbacks in the next 2 trading days especially the trading sessions in European market towards the US American trading sessions on Friday for both majors & cross rates respectively!
The EURJPY candle configuration is quite interesting then prior to today's upward direction as fueled by the surge on the EURUSD, due to reports that there may already be a more likely deal addressing the Greek debt crisis. The technical perspective signaling a positive tone was the recovery on the EURUSD and simultaneously a move higher with the USDJPY.
A move for the USDJPY higher is a lost in Yen value. The break from a triangle formation came at 100.60/85 that followed through at current price of 101.99 from a rising equidistant channel application. Closing prices above these levels would still provide a positive tone thereafter with a further corrective daily moves on both directions giving a false reversal scenario.
A pause and consolidation after a dramatic move is likewise considered which would cause some traders to reluctantly create trade positions. A word of caution, never try to catch a rapid market movement as pullbacks would cause to trigger stop loss due to wide price fluctuation.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Technical Perspective: GBPJPY

GBPJPY Cross as of Feb. 06, 2012
On the Technical perspective; the GBPJPY started of with the GBPUSD initial price reversal at 117.53 low; with a higher bottom at 119.55 serving as a good support, likewise a double bottom price level within a rising channel. The GBPJPY is a 2nd cross rate currency pair that has very market potential which has been shadowing the GBPUSD on its 1st leg of a price reversal. While breaking its trendline resistance and its current working price of 121.15 is above the 21WK-MA of 120.85 as shown of this candle chart of the GBPJPY on a Daily formation. The MACD is now on a positive tone after the movement while the cross awaits some follow through from the GBPUSD. Its initial attempt to its previous high of 121.85 may find some temporary resistance unless a USDJPY recovery would out pace the GBPUSD on the way up. A market behavior of the GBPUSD correlation with the Japanese Yen vs. the USDX would be the primary focus for the coming weeks ahead.


Saturday, February 4, 2012

EUR-GBP-USDx SRO 2.6-8

Though the numbers were good, the structural fact of real unemployed US workers specially younger graduates as defined by some analyst does not sufficiently support such dramatic moves in the marketplace until the time for a follow-through would occur from hereunto. 
EURUSD DAILY 

As of week ending Feb. 03, 2012

After touching a higher at 1.3220 on 01.22 the EURUSD has had difficulty penetrating and serves as the initial resistance for now. A corrective move lower to 1.3025 from the past week have manage to hold its support while directional movements whipped-saw from the high-low to close at 1.3145 for the week ending the 3rd of Feb.The resiliency of the Euro is really supported by the EU leaders working real hard for a deal other than Germany's A Merkel meeting with China for some assistance. Although, a fundamentally bias news would justify that the EURUSD may have some legs technically speaking to move higher well above its initial resistance.Extensions is within a trading range of 1.3360 21Wk-MA and at 1.3480-1.3550 areas for the EURUSD.


GBPUSD DAILY

As of week ending Feb 03, 2012
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD first resistance levels have been marked at 1.5882 high with a low at 1.5705 support while closing for the week at 1.5815 well within its trading range. A spill over of contrary sentiments by bull players would likewise show in the opening trading days of next week. However, even with a daily up/down swings for the pairs would give way for the true direction near term trend to move higher.
A word of price and behavioral comparisons would be that there is a current price imbalance and discrepancy between the European pairs vs. the USD. Likewise causing an irregular market movements of price swings which can also been seen with the EURGBP cross rate. Until all three pairs are re-aligned with their corresponding objectives then such divergences in the Moving averages would be realized. Some due diligence is necessary to establish your trade decisions.

Now, in spite of the good report of the Job nos. at 243k the USD slightly manage to move higher with mixed reactions by traders and moved within the 77.60-79.57 trading range for the week and ending at the 78.95 just above its support levels. On the technical side, the 4 hourly chart formation of the prices compared with the Stoch/RSI technical combination have indicated an positive divergence resulting the USDx to move higher to 79.25 then closed for the week at 78.95. And the market's reaction for the past week have surely been a pause and a consolidation. The intra-day and week candle bar indicates that this week's price range has been a correction only before it resumes its near term bear direction.

Megatrade101 would likewise maintain our market outlook for the near term, where the USD is to move further south based on our market view report dated the 30th of January with daily correction higher from time to time on the opening trading days next week. As of this writing, no such indication for a price reversal change would occur for the USDX to go higher except on a daily price & session to session turnovers of the three major markets. Whenever the prices do move otherwise, we stand to be corrected. However, market conditons varies from time to time and whenever it does; alternative plans are in place to correct a speculative outlook by implementing trade decisions that can only prove that percentage trading will be the best strategy to outlive such a volatile market. Managing & controling losses will likewise protect the gains. Thus building equity on top of one's investment capital can and will always be used to pay off the losses and not coming from the principal funds.

These choppy behavior we have seen with the EURUSD, GBPUSD and particularly the cross EURGBP is a typical market behavior between the tug of war by the bull and bear players. Although, the candle configuration for both European pairs have been seen by other analysts to be carving out a top in prep for a downward direction. True enough to some extent, that we could see a daily consolidation with tight ranges while waiting for some news to trigger a rapid price fluctuation. Unfortunately, not even the jobs data really moved the Forex market. As investors shifted cash flow investments to the stocks which we saw have moved higher right after the report.

Issues to consider: inflation, unemployment figures, housing, Iran & Israel, Oil /Gold and the stock market /SP500


Wednesday, February 1, 2012

USD back lower from correction.

Technical perspective: Fig.1
As of January 31
The USDX have indicated a slight recovery from its recent low at 78.74 well within our support trading range of 78.05-78.85 initial objective from the high of 81.78 basis point. The daily price movement would be in both directions as position adjustments takes place towards the opening of the new month of February and the closing trading days of the week. The USDX current outlook for the weekly intra-candle bar is within the range of the previous bar signaling a slight retracement from the downward movement resting on the support. However, the overall technical outlook is a near term bearish formation would continue until it finds a relative higher bottom for the index to continue its upward trend direction as shown on fig.1 chart.
The catalyst to trigger some momentum lower would eventually come from one of the fundamental reports expected this week especially for Thursday and Friday data. The significance of a slight correction higher as it opened for the new month of February at the 79.36 and currently working back down to the 78.85 mid-week support on a trading session to session basis and engulfing the corrective gain yesterday as of this writing.