Monday, January 31, 2011

Market Overview & Analysis

The real concern for the week ahead would again come on Tuesday's US ISM manufacturing number of 57.9 vs.57 not to mention today's Canadian GDP report, The RBA Rate Decision in Australia and Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls that would certainly be watched. Although, we do not expect any real change in NFP numbers with what the actual market sentiments are showing by the price movements. The volatility towards these reports would only provide market volatility for the major players. As market speculators from the retail side has had difficulty in trading and reading how the market reacts due to the wider price fluctuations even within intra-day trading.
As our outlook still remains bearish for the USDX currently working at the 77.80. A re-test of the previous low should not be discounted at the 76.65/80 basis point range. The numbers could not make any real serious recovery as the investors sentiments has been negative for quite a while now. Which prompted the steadier EURUSD moving north of the charts with sustaining weekly volumes on the financial futures. And thus helping to make price move forward at the opening levels for the week. EURUSD is currently at the 1.3717 where its initial target is at the 1.383-80 range for this week with up and down movements are expected before it attains this objective.
The previous outlook from our market view report has been quite supportive where a steadier cross rate of the EURGBP have been the key in the EURUSD trade in spite of the Irish negative reports that have resurfaced in the news reports. However, the more influential factor is the USD continues decline. Specially with today as the closing prices for the month would weigh-in on the sentiments and market outlook.
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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Trend following USDCAD & EURGBP Cross

Monday, January 24, 2011

Highlights & Analysis

With the State of the Union Address on Tuesday, the President would surely emphasize on the administration's accomplishment for both the economy and jobs creation looking forward with the agenda agreed during the meeting with Hu Jintao of China. Deals made and with a new economic team that strives for improve competitiveness in the global market in exports and jobs creation will highlight a positive tone for the US Dollar. Although, the troubles in Ireland have placed some slight pressure on the Euro as of this trading session at the levels of 1.3572 corrective move.
However, the reports for the week would play a significant part as UK GDP expected to be at 2.6 vs. 2.7 would weigh on the GBPUSD with some influence between the cross rate of the EURGBP to be steadier from the previous week working at 0.8514; whereas the 0.8550-80 levels may find some resistance for the next corrective move thereafter.
On the other hand, the USDX would rely more from the coming FOMC meeting, Durable goods orders, Consumer Confidence from the University of Michigan and the Friday's US Gross Domestic Product. These reports would be dictating the directional trend for the USDX in spite of its technically motivated bearish chart formation both on a daily and weekly basis. With an opening week of 78.30bp would provide a week of wider fluctuations on both directions but would maintain a bearish tone as it has indeed been bid-off to the lows below the 78.65/80 levels. And its initial target of 78.05 would be re-tested but will find some bouncing support and fresh longs on these levels. Most of the bullish positions has been settled from smaller speculators found mostly from retail trades.
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Monday, January 17, 2011

Market Analysis-Technicals



With a moderate economic calendar schedule lined-up for the week; with the FED Charles Plosser speaking on monetary policies, UK Consumer and Retail Price Index, jobless claims and the US housing starts figures including existing home sales and again jobless claims would be neutral to friendly for the USD. The market sentiments have weighed-in more for a USD strength continuation after a series of wide price fluctuations from last week. Making the strength of the Euro and Pounds full week of dominating the market more this week's trading.
However, the dominating factor would be how the GBPUSD would react in the market since there are more economic news coming from Europe than the US. So relatively, the USD is susceptible from the market reaction as shown on the opening Asian and European markets earlier.
As a the market is currently moving on its technical axis with the GBPUSD currently at the higher levels at 1.5921 as of this writing. Finding little resistance inspite of a small corrective move on the USDX at the current levels of 79.20. Although, the technical outlook on the chart is more bearish due to the candlestick pattern for the weeklys were engulfing bars of bulls and bears struggling to dominate the market. Price levels above the 78.65 is still a favorable support for the USDX unless any particular news would drive it lower. But for now there is none.
For a complete report on this market outlook ahead for the week of January 22 please refer to our website at http://megatrade101.com/

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Expanding Volatility

With the USDX closing at the higher levels with an increase of volumes for the start of the week have made it all possible to to try to break the resistance prices above, that would signal a renewed confidence of USD acceleration.
The start of the trading week for the FX market has never been as volatile as the surprising numbers from the ADP's report on jobs creation that triggered the steam for the USD to move higher. To top it off were the decrease on the unemployment figures; which the government has always taken the limelight every time good figures comes out of the market place. Of course who wouldn't!
With the expansion of the bail-out fund have prompted the EURUSD to continue to head lower at lat year's levels where a re-test of the 1.2880 figure would not be discounted. As the prices neared the lows of 1.2887. A natural corrective move would be expected as the week moves forward with some reports on earnings are expected to be fairly friendly to the USD. As the USDX have moved from a wide range; as mentioned from our last market analysis that the Average true range of the USDX is between the 78.65 and the 81.45/50 basis points.
On the technical front, looking at the candlestick configuration on most majors pairs have shown an engulfing pattern that clearly defines the relative movement dominating the market sentiments. As the wider price ranges continue to move on both directions it would be significant to take note that if a trade position would not be able to sustain an average fluctuation range of 150-250 pips on the HI LO range then it would be wiser not to trade unless a significant amount would be used for risk. Although, the equivalent reward would be greater, the only remaining problem would be to avoid getting cashed-out at a loss at the early part of the trading day before it moves to one's favor.
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Sunday, January 2, 2011

Market Outlook

As the new year for 2011 have kicked-off with the US dollar Index opening slightly higher from its previous 2010 lower closing price of 78.95; the opening in the Asian Trading session have led the rest of the major to follow-suit with a slight correction as well. A continuation of the corrective moves on the US dollar could be foreseen as the trading range of 78.65-80.82 were in fact the average true range of the USDX based from its previous levels of last month prior to the closing of the year. the 78.65 should be carefully watched as new positions and strategies would be in place this week as the European and US trading sessions would take place prompting the USD to be on the defensive for the start of the trading week in spite of a firm tone. And the previous week's report on china's rate hike with some friendlier reports on the US at the closing of the year.
Meanwhile, the recovery of the Euro and the GBP versus the USD at 1.3423 high and 1.5665 high from last week's price movement have found some corrective levels respectively at the start ofthe new trading week. A slower pace of volume trading as we move forward to this week may prove to be a wait & see attitude for some traders to try to find some direction for the market. And so does the USDJPY & the USDCHF at thier stronger levels to start with the year.
The precious metals have weighed heavier as the Gold prices continued its acceleration above the US$1400.00/oz. which have taken a toll on the USD and has capped its levels at the 81.45/50 basis point for the USDX. For the USD to continue heading North a conservative volume build up should be seen on the first quarter of the year's trading. Otherwise, the a re-test of the lows beyond the 78.65 would be made making the Australian and NZ Dollar a little bit more attractive.
Please visit our site for a continuation of this report at mid-week of the trading period.
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