Monday, November 29, 2010

8 Forex Technical Analysis trading -EUR-GBP & Cross rates.avi

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Balancing Act for the FX Market

After a flurry of market action before and after the thanksgiving holiday; as mentioned on our November 22 market view analysis, today and towards the end of the month of November would leave some breathing room for most traders who may have gotten caught in-between a relatively thin but wide price movements in the market.
The tension over the North / South Korea crisis, the European debt issues, and the US GDP data has tamed the traders / analyst for now as reflected on the market on almost most sectors including the currencies. The remaining factors would just be the economic reports due this week which may still be friendly for the USD on an overall perspective. Translating into a more positive outlook with variable corrective movements for most major pairs in the forex market. This is true to its form currently, the EURUSD and GBPUSD is making at the 1.3296 and 1.5632 respectively. Correspondingly, the EURGBP cross held its support at the 0.8419-0.8450 range while both the Euro and Pound headed lower to these price levels.
With the price page indicator in place while making these price movements together with the correlation with the USDX reaching its initial resistance levels between the 80.05-80.50 range after holding above the key price levels of 77.33 and 78.65. the corrective movement will entail a short term target at the 78.65-79.90 basis points. Depending on the outcome of the economic reports due this week that would re-confirm the directional trend of the USD.
All these price adjustments has left the market with more of the professional traders, hedge funds managers and major institutional in the main driver seat. Weeding-out smaller speculators that could not sustain such wide trading price fluctuations between the 150-250 pips in between trading sessions.
Watch for our mid-week report as we move forward towards the closing and opening of the new month of December which happens to be the end of the last quarter of the year that may also be a significant indicator for the rest of the year.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Market Perspective 11.22

This week's shortened trading sessions due to the Thanksgiving Holiday would provide a thinner market conditions except for the forth coming annualized GDP report, minutes of the FOMC, Durable Goods, jobless claims figures and the home sales all before Thanksgiving day. So the market expectations would be a bit more volatile before and after this period. As some of the major players except for a few who may want to take advantage of the absence of the hedge funds from institutional accounts.
Although, the opening prices on the GBPUSD and the EURUSD would have a significant effect as they opened higher from their previous closing prices. As the USD headed lower where we could find the USDX at the 78.10-15 range while Gold also did moved higher at the 1360.45 as of this writing. Again, key prices would be for the USDX to stay afloat towards the end of the month for November above the 77.33 basis point. This would provide some gains for the EURUSD on the opening with the abled assistance of the cross rate of the EURGBP which is at the 0.8582. However, this may prove to be short-lived as the EURUSD would head south as the USD would continue to move higher on a day to day session with some corrective movements along the way. The 1st initial resistance levels is at the 0.8660 while the sustaining support is at the 0.8443-50 levels as it heads lower whenever the USDX goes higher and this is also in line with the Ichimoku Senkao span or lower cloud support levels on the weekly chart. And within the daily cloud formation that would test the lows as the USD goes up.
A more accurate figure for the supports and resistances would be a cross-reference of the Fibonacci fan both from its highest and lowest price points to find the target objectives in between the regular retracement application. A tighter price trading range is expected as long as the prices are found in between these resistance and support levels.
Further details would be discussed along the mid-week of this Thanksgiving holiday period.
Meanwhile, please visit our video on the enhanced Fibonacci trading analysis a sit can only help assist in trading the FX market.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Market Perspective

Fundamental:
The flurry of economic reports from retail sales, Consumer Price Index, Jobless claims, the manufacturing index would be important; though not as much as what the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Trichet would say towards the end of this trading week. The economic numbers coming out this week would be more in favor of the USD as a general effect of the end of the years numbers compared from the previous months.
However, this would be priced-in on the market with relative wide swings expected from the major currencies prior to every news that would be coming out. But the Friday's speech from these key people would underline the significance of the numbers. On the cyclical pattern it has been narrowly in line with our expectations both on a fundamental stand point and its technical perspective as prices would be re-aligning within the last quarter of the year.
Much of the direction for the USD would still be a wider trading range before and after the Thanksgiving holiday period would come. the back-drop of the Sovereign funds crisis would still be in the background and should be treated as such. Although, the UK data coming out this week would trigger a short-term relative reaction lower for the GBPUSD but not as significant where some traders are expecting a straight reaction downwards that may not happen. As the consolidation phase of the major pairs are already in line with their cyclical behavior and would only be reflected int he market within the next four weeks of the market.
For now we still hold our market sentiments from our last market outlook after this report. A more detailed analysis is found on our website.
Visit our website for more Technical perspective of the market conditions.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Market Strategies

Forex Combination for this Market behavior
From our previous market view analysis, a mixture of good and bad reports coming from both sides of the continent have made the forex majors behave with price fluctuating wider than most have expected. As the USDX have made a remarkable recovery from a low of 75.63 to as high as 78.17 as of this writing due to the 5.3% decline of the trade deficit figures. This was the fundamental reason that supported our technical outlook where the key price level to watch was the 77.33 basis point levels for the US Dollar index. Staying above this figure until the end of the month would sustain its viability to hold back higher for the rest of the year. Unless, some other unforeseen reports comes out in the picture.
With the current behavior of the forex market; the appropriate combination to choose from would be the EURUSD vs. the EURGBP cross rate. Where the the EURGBP stays below the critical price level of 0.8660 will still drag the EURUSD lower as it is right now at the 1.3735 and still targeting the 1.3575-80 levels. Expect some corrective moves upon completion of this initial target. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD vs. the USDJPY and a combination of the GBPJPY to move higher at the 133.30-80 levels would be the most logical trade plan to have based on the current price levels and market behavior. Although, the GBPUSD has made some excellent correction lower to the 1.5950-60 levels where one can find a double-bottom price alignment that have triggered some short-covering from earlier positions.
This currency trade combination should provide a better positioning for prices to re-align after this week's trading. However, the GBPJPY may also provide a more market potential to move higher before the month of November closes.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Market Outlook 11.08


As the Greek political troubles serves as the back-drop and the forefront runner on the European side; the market couldn't help but use it as the one of the reasons why the Euro is pulling back down from its high of 1.4281 last week. However, it was more of the good figures from the Jobs data that helped the ailing USD at the closing and opening of this week's trading sessions.
The irony of the matter, is that most of the traders and analyst have been caught flat-footed on the extensions that the GBPUSD and the EURUSD made towards the highs. The hysteria market on the USD built by major players led the USDX to move back down to its psychological support price of 75.63 causing the Gold prices to find some extension highs at the USD1397.90 - 1398.30 as of the European trading session. With the USD recovery in line with the corrective phase of this quarter; we may now see some play between their Average True Range and a wider market price swings toward the end of this month of November. A consolidation of a wider perspective would be made. It would also include a gradual basin formation of the USD as position adjustments towards the end of the quarter is being made.

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Monday, November 1, 2010

Market Outlook - Week of 11.01

A lot of position adjustments for the opening week of November as the market awaits the highly important reports due this week from the Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing (QE), the Jobs report from the US and the much anticipated election results from the United States as well.
With China on the back-drop report of having their manufacturing numbers beating expectations have led a rather modest reactions from the other Asian currencies such as the Korean Won and the Japanese Yen leading to its all time high versus the US dollar. As the market was omehow spooked with the USDJPY rising to a intra-day high of 81.42 and is now back to it original price level of 80.45 from last week's closing price levels.
Noticeably, the opening prices within the major pairs led to an opening gap which may eventually lead to a continuation of its original trend. And this is for the USD to still continue to move lower. The Major USDX at the 76.99 will again attempt to move lower from the October low of 76.14 that may cause some wider trading ranges for prices on almost all the major pairs and this would include the cross rates. This would occur on a day to day basis as indicated during the opening prices for the week of November.
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