Tuesday, October 26, 2010

EUR-GBP-JPY Market View-LIVE.avi

Monday, October 25, 2010

Market Outlook 10.25

With the uneventful meeting by the G20 members, the currency market has been hyped with the currency wars as the main issue. The results were just a war of words with no actual resolution in sight. This has led the USD to continue to move lower in the Asian and European markets heading to the North American sessions.
The current levels of the USDX now is at the 76.84 from an Asian low at the 76.60bp as of this writing. the corrective move of last week were short-lived with relatively modest corporate earnings, the expected comments of the Federal Reserve key economist and the much anticipated G20 hoping to be able to resolve a stronger communique in avoiding a currency devaluation amongst other countries.
This has proven our market view report last week ending the 22nd of October mentioning that the USD corrective move may not be able to sustain simply as a mere adjustment since it has been in its technically over-sold areas, where a much needed relief would be made.
With that said, it was indeed a bullish trap for the EURUSD correcting back down to the 1.3697 for just one day. The subsequent trading day made a stronger statement erasing all its decline . And now the EURUSD is back to it 1.4058 levels. Meanwhile, the EURGBP have been very resilient with the prices at the 0.8940 high as it tries to continue to move further with the help of the GBPUSD pacing at a slower pace with the Euro.
For further analysis and market outlook for the week-ending October 29; pls visit our website at http://www.megatrade101.com/

Monday, October 18, 2010

Finally USD Recovery!

As the much awaited USD recovery is in the making from the Asian trading heading towards the European and North American session. On the technical stand-point, using the candlestick bar on the weekly charts of the USDX closing at 77.05bp which signified a spinning top or some may call it a long legged-doji bar especially with a slightly higher opening for the week at 77.36 giving enough momentum to continue at the 77.45bp as of this writing.
With that said, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD had moved lower at the 1.3870 and 1.5877 respectively for the pairs. This is normally the case where such technical moves are based simply from the reaction of an over-extended rally from the past four weeks. However, the said rally was done in a slow yet gradual manner where we found some drawbacks on the prices making the higher lows on the way up. Our objective from the last market view analysis have touched the range of 1.4120-80 dated the 14th of October, 2010 where the correction now is being made. The same could be said with the GBPUSD. However, a price reversal is made but not necessarily a trend reversal. The near-term correction is true to its movements amongst the major pairs; how far they go lower would depend on a daily price behavior.
Please visit our website for an in depth analysis mid-week in anticipation of this week's price movements.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Price Discrepancy

The price opening during the trading sessions in Asia can not go unnoticed whenever there are price discrepancies between the closing prices in New York closing prices last Friday. Of course, there would be as closing and opening prices in between trading sessions will and always have the difference of the bid and ask. A clear example of this is the Daily EURUSD chart figure as shown on the left hand column. Where the closing price last Friday was actually 1.3940 and the opening trading session in Asia was at the 1.3999 and working its way back to the current price of 1.3933 as of this writing.
However, these price openings serves as an indicator for those who happens to have a little more experience in analyzing the market behavior. These would be part of the due diligence in trading especially for those who may have kept over the weekend positions open in the market. Which are not really encourage for retail traders and investors to have an open postition even by the end of day or over the weekend , for that matter.
As a matter of information, all open positions are still settled every end of day trading and thus re-opened the next day's trading sessions. These is where swaps are made between interbank transactions thus carried over between counter-party. For those familiar with the Tom next ruling on the financial exchange which most hedge fund players and money managers pay more particular attention to since huge trading volumes do affect their trading activities.
But for retail investors who simply take advantage of price fluctuations do not pay too much attention to these matters. Although, for certain strategists and market analysts the huge difference during closing and re-opening prices does provide a glimpse of a continuation of the trend or an opposite price direction. And in this scenario, the USDX to start consolidating with a wider trading range after its decline would be the only way to go. Thereafter, due to its seasonal and cyclical pattern may eventually move higher on a slow pace, gradually towards the end of the year.
For more information please visit our website at: http://www.megatrade101.com/

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Market Reversal - Wolf Call

As the Forex market increases its intense trading activities through the past weeks we have seen some dramatic movements of price fluctuations from the major currencies and the precious metals. With Gold climbing to USD1364.55 high and dropping to as low as USD1327.30 within the North American trading session, while the Euro and the Cable initially topped at the 1.4028 and 1.6016 respective highs also retreated back down have made a lot of traders and analyst called these signals as market reversal. As every blog and articles written for the past 24 hours from most of the retail broker's outlook have signified to this prior to the NFP report today. Its the day where the boy who cried "Wolf"
Every trader always wants to be able to be the first to call and prove their abilities in trading the market. So do we, except with respect to the market it take these things one step at a time. As we try to share our market sentiments the way we see and analyze the market conditions before a possible price movement can happen.
So far, our market view still remains the same and the price reversal that we have seen were just part of the price adjustments made by major players both long settlements and short-covering since position adjustments normally takes place before a major report comes in to the picture. Which we all should be able to excercise due diligence in our trading practises before any major event takes place. Please pay close attention to the market behavior other than anticipating price and trend reversals based only on what the major players in the market place wants you to see. Candlestick formations and bar configurations which every trader sees in front of their computer screens are viewed one and the same. The irony is that every trader that doesn't look into it deeper and simply weigh the technicals would be in deep trouble.
Please excercise every possible caution while trading in these market conditions.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Trend following the USD

The fundamental side of the market!

The major trend for the USD is definitely heading south; as there really is no signal of a full recovery except for a day to day correction. The other fundamental news for the week of Oct. 04-08 may well be concentrated on several key reports of Ben Bernanke outlook for the economy and the Non-farm payrolls.
A weaker USD due to the Fed's monetary easing for the US economy to stimulate growth has been well in the market for sometime not to mention the currency wars between the two major trading partners China and the US. Needless to say, that China's role as a major player in the world market can no longer be ignored. And the US trade deficit and debt problems can only be helped with a long term balance of trade which includes a lower USD; whereas US exporters may well benefit from such stiff worldwide stiff competition.
At the rate that the market is going for the USD; the continued strength of the European currencies in spite of its economic troubles amongst its neighboring countries will continue in the next couple of months. Although, we could speculate that the 4th quarter would include a consolidation for the USD within the next two months and a slight recovery towards the end of the seasonal year. A wider trading range of prices would be expected as last quarter trades and position adjustments would be made other than book squaring positions for the year. However, it too early to speculate on a USD recovery at this time as all probabilities are non-existent. Talking good outlook and stocks market performance is not enough to convince investor's negative outlook at this point in time.

The technical market outlook of the Asian, European trading heading to the North American sessions can be followed on our website at:
http://megatrade101.com/ " Technical Vs. Fundamental Analysis 10.3