Monday, September 21, 2009

Price Alignment

With the market holidays in Japan and Singapore, most investors and traders are reluctant to create new positions awaiting for the FOMC meeting on rates. Although, members are not expected to make any drastic actions and may simply hold rates unchange.
And some member countries of the G-20 meeting which been clamoring for some exchange rates adjustments as the balance of currency value has been mis-aligned ever since the financial crisis occured and the deteriorating US dollar for the past few years against the other major foreign currency pairs.
Although, the US Dollar Index is measured only among a few majors; it is apparent that such adjustments are made with the changing US trading partners worldwide including China and India who happens to be now major players in the world market.
So the market may experience some wider trading range since the market place has thin volumes which is susceptible to wild changes as seen on the opening in Europe and the US sessions particularly on the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF as a clear example.
Most analyst with the local broker-dealers offering FX dealing services have stated a firm report that with the bearish signal bar shown on the daily EUR/USD chart as a candlestick hammer signifying a downward expectation for the prices. The irony for that matter is that everyone have unanimously agreed that it will and the price direction in the US session simply did the opposite triggering some stop-loss orders. This normally happens when the consensus of the traders and the majority sees the same configuration on the computer screen without really looking in from outside the box.

A further analysis of the market can be found in our website at http://www.megatrade101.com/ > market view that will summarize some clearer currency to trade as a matter of choice. However, the market conditions may change before the actual reports on the FOMC and the US leading Indicators will show where the US Dollar index direction will try to dominate the financial market.

Good Luck and Happy Trading !

Monday, September 14, 2009

The Waiting Game!

The market is facing some volume crisis as most investors are on the sideline waiting for some real good incentives. The speech from Pres. Obama on the financial regulations was not something new as it was timed with the 1st anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse that led to the ripple effect on Wall Street causing the financial crisis to strat with.

The speech neither did do much for the dollar although, some technical corrections were made since the last blog dated the 8 th of September which there was a slight corrective move as the prices moved gradually lower or like they say in an orderly fashion.

These are the times that the market would move based mostly on a technical perspective as traders and investors wait for something that may provide some clearer direction for the market. At this time risk appetite for investments int he FX market has deteriorated as much when we reported on the declining volumes since October 2008 to April of 2009.

As for the USD/CHF the consolidation is still there as the tight band/ range of the prices doesn't go beyond the range of 1.0421 - 1.0321, making the 1.0350/80 as the mid-range consolidation.

There are some indication of the market to be within these sluggish movements as the market is now more inclined to be technically driven than anything else.

Let's just watch how the market behaves in the next few days.


Good Luck and Happy Trading.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

" US Dollar finally. . .

. . . gave-in on the downside " making a low for the USDX at the levels of 77.14 starting with the Asian Session and towards the European session giving the GBP/USD & EUR/USD the uplift from the previous week's low price. specially for the GBP/USD after establishing a low at 1.6110 and now working on the 1.6504 as of this writing with a high of 1.6585. The previous low now becomes the next higher bottom price levels in support of the weekly technical charts shown in this figure.

As for the USD/CHF as we can only speculate; watch for the psychological price that the SNB may consider intervening in the market as there is quite a disparity when it starts to consolidate at the price levels of 1.0380 and with a lower price range thereafter may trigger some indirect fresh long positions along the way.

As Gold has penetrated its psychological resistance price of USD 1,000.00 most investors have made their shift from the previous weeks roller coaster ride of Gold prices with the most recent low at USD 980.00/troy oz. the previous day. It has been more of a US Dollar related movement rather than anything else. As Gold becomes the currency of Last Resort as we mentioned in one of our hub page articles at : http://hubpages.com/hub/Megatrade101 .
Even from the lower blogs that we did from the previous weeks, we have already been emphasizing the gravity of the US Dollar to further move lower as the overall negative sentiments on the unemployment no.'s that came out a 9.7% increase and the 9 Trillion USD national debt in the next decade making it close to 20Trillion US Dollars by the year 2020 as reported by the government made things worst than it is.

On top of the remarks stated by Mr. Warren Buffet in his comments in the New York times that there is an out of control spending by the government, an 8% -13% percent of GDP on our National Debt weighed heavily on the future of the US dollar value. As shown on the other technical chart.

So we are left with no other recourse but to stay the course on a heavily unfavorable dollar as the turnover volumes report by the Reserve bank of Australia reported a 2.5 Trillion decline from October of 2008 to April of 2009 which led the currency market move cash capital investment into emerging markets of other countries. Please refer to our Market View report and analysis no. 16 as it will show a summary of that report.


Good Luck and Happy Trading !