In keeping up with the Yen cross rates; the Singapore Dollar versus the Japanese Yen would be an excellent alternative cross rate choice to trade with. This is in anticipation that after a long consolidation on the USDJPY currency pair, that event risk related to the USD continuing strength for the week ending August 01, 2014 would prove to have a more probable market potential contrary to its limited price band moving higher after breaking its primary line of defense as indicated above the 82.00 / even level.
With a trading range between the 81.00 low and 82.00 even price levels; once the prices would walk through these risk events by the opening of the new month of August; such price adjustments leading to a probable break above the 82.00 would be supported with the strength of the US Dollar Index hitting its initial target objective of 81.50/60 as defined in its next leg higher from a Fibonacci extension objective.
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A busy week schedule is expected with the US Dollar taking center stage as a reaffirmation for its rally is likely to continue with a few daily pullbacks. the US GDP again in focus with the NFP jobs data and the FOMC rate decision. By mid-week, we would see some market price action to start within the Asian trading and European markets as it makes its way through the US trading session. A much related analysis dated June 30 for DXY prior to breakout. US Dollar DXY - A major Correction & Key Price Recovery
Price swings are limited to the three (3) day trading activity as a norm in trading activity. As most participants wants to see market reaction right after market data are released.But as a matter of price comparison and signal indicator please refer to the CIPHER3 chart from the weekly US Dollar index indicated below. with the 79.85/90 basis point figure now serves as the secondary higher support for the US Dollar Index while the DXU14 @80.80 likewise would be the same. Click here
Trend-following the US Dollar Index 'DXY' from its Pivotal price point and reversal formation since the week of July 01 has proven to be a classic pattern where the first signal came through and a follow-through breakout came after the prices stayed above the all important key price level @80.05 on the way higher.
Daily DXY & Weekly Comparative Overlay Chart
Likewise, the shortened trading week on the fourth of July have given the USD Index a typical symmetrical triangle formation on a technical perspective from the its previous corrective price move with a registered low @79.74 basis point figure as shown on the green-circled of a reversal three bar cluster-formation. This is over and above of the positive jobs numbers that fueled the US Dollar recovery and the rally on the Dow Jones Industrial Average & SP which is nearing the 2K mark.
However, the more important process of Cipher3 Analysis is comparing the DXY with the corresponding Futures prices with DXU14 & DXZ14.pdf (On Demand Subscription on Website) where the actual confirmation signal of a probable breakout to the upside was in the making; when the Price Reversal couple with volumes have shown on their respective charts in the attached link of a PDF file on the DX Futures.
NOTE: Monitoring the Futures DX is a sequence of process where the objectives of the prices can either be achieved in reaching their respective supports and resistances ahead of the spot DXY. In these two contract months, the registered lows both dated last 05.08.14 were @79.05 for DXU14 & @79.24 respectively. These reference points are part of the variable reference of importance.